The SP rose 18% on the news that they were cutting the Bank in half… toxic, non toxic… the only way was up for the SP… But since that announcement the SP has continued its descent to dangerous lows… Deutsche’s SP… anything under ~10 euro… the Bank is insolvent…
If a surgeon was about to remove a gangrene limb that was eventually going to kill you… your future prospects would improve as well…
Deutsche is already in the process of being ‘bailed out’. One means of bail out is forcing a merger with another large bank. That was recently attempted by the German government, with German Commerzbank, but the effort failed. Commerz took one look at Deutsches audit, and walked away immediately…
Another bailout measure is to get the bank in trouble to raise capital by selling off its best assets. Now firesales of its better assets are underway. Another approach is to set up what’s called a ‘bad bank’ in which to dump its non-performing assets.
That’s going on with Italian banks. But those solutions may not be enough should the bank’s stock price collapse further even more rapidly. At only $6.89 a share now, speculators could soon jump in and drive it to near zero, as what happened in the month preceding Lehman’s collapse.
All though the trajectory is very similar… Deutsche’s losses are monumental compared to Lehman’s.
More like a Lehman’s AIG combined… And as we now know… Lehmann’s were the ones left without a chair when the music stopped…
After doing some more research… one option on the table to the EU is to sacrifice a few smaller Banks, French or Italian to prop up the staggering German Bank…and even seek help from China and Russia for some stability…
Unbelievably… China is conducting joint military exercises with Germany’s armed forces over the coming months…
I’m not hoping for the Bank to fail, far from it, I personally have a financial plan in place that requires a further 18 months of market stability… and I’m done… hence my interest in this issue.
So, I guess only time will what happens in this space…