I don’t know if Samir was really short the usd or if he’s having a little fun - anyways difficult to say if this move has any real substance - the jury is still out.
The is a glimmer that the fed may think about Dec taper, but is a big may and a little glimmer, my feeling is that when the clear light of day dawns (here) then if Samir was really short he’ll get his tp.
That silly fib thing at 38 coupled with former resistance, coupled with weekly pivot s1 halted fibre’s slide - oh and the round fig - all this ta stuff can be hard to remember sometimes.
And no… I wasn’t short dollar. But I am surprised by the reaction to the statement which is essentially the exact same as September. Scalped a few long audusd post release… This pair should see some end of month boosts tomorrow as well
Trend lines were made to be broken, but the issue of risking 70 to get 25 or 35 is just bad money management.
The idea of holding until a profit occurs is a bit frightening. Best to pick the spots with the highest return coupled with the lowest risk rather than jumping into no man’s land with the higher possibility of two way action, but no logical backstop.
Yep - S&P well up for the month so remember our clocks went back an hour, 4pm comes now when it was 5pm last week
Some are saying (States side mind you) that the market reacted because Dec taper was not taken off the table - that’s clutching at …
I like the NZD, I remember a poster saying here one time to watch that one, think he said something about a good one to play against a weaker usd -
I’m not totally surprised at the fomc price reaction after the whimper after adp,
Careful with Nzd right now… As tang pointed out we’ve got their OCR decision on tap… I’ve got a feeling they will add a sentence or two in there expressing concern over the high exchange rate… May hurt nzd. I may long audnzd pre release based on that assumption.
If there is ANY mention of the possibility of raising rates, any comment about high exchanges will go right out the window. It’s a double edged sword there right now.
I’ll watch from the sidelines again. There will be plenty of fireworks tonight when Europe wakes up.
Like you said earlier its about probability… The market is largely expecting a rate increase in march. If he throws in a clause to future rate hikes hinging them to the exchange rate then we would see a decent drop off as that would be new news. If he reiterates what the market expects… The move won’t be as dramatic as its not new news. Wheeler has stated last week that a rate increase may be delayed due to the new lending regulations… So this makes it unlikely he’s going to want to hasten the date that the market are going to expect an increase with this statement. Odds are skewed to this being a bearish event
Mr Wheeler - please do not talk down the kiwi, you said last week that you could see no reason to intervene (meddle) with market dynamics - and given that some market participants were selling your nice currency on rumours of a NZ downgrade, now I’m wondering - did you start those rumours?
Nah, Mr Wheeler - remember to mention the possibility of a rate increase, that’ll do nicely.
Hmm, back to this TA stuff, I see we almost hit the 200 ma at 8180, we did hit and halt at weekly pivot s1 and daily s2 which were within 4 pips of each other
Ohhhhh! It was just released… Daylight saving kicked in a few days ago. Usually this release happens at 2 PM my time but today it was 1 PM. Lol that was fortunate because I would be in the red right now
to show how price action works.