Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

So far fiber has made high for the week at 1.3340 that is a 78% ext of low last week to the open this week so retracment is possible. At least to open for the week but commercial power still buying so am trading 40-50 pip ranges on the downside

Firstly, well done on the 22% profit, but please make sure you are using good judgement with your entries and money management. I feel that if you have made 22% in three days, there must have been quite an amount of risk as well if it were wrong. Personally, I never risk any more than 2% on any one trade. 2% is my ā€œstandardā€ trade setup and with that, the profits do flow, but not as high as that. Even when I used Madscalper early last year, the best was 24% in a month, and most people thought that was a great effort.

As I said, well done so far, but remember to protect thy assets :slight_smile:

Definately 2% believer, was up 200% on a demo after 3 weeks and down to nothing in 4, trading high stakes. Luckily before I went live, but I was about too.

2% will NOT get you rich overnight.
2% WILL make you learn to trade with discipline, with method and with consistency. With that comes consistent profits :slight_smile:

That WILL make you financially comfortable and in no need of another source of income in time (my timeline is hopefully 5 years)

Glad I stood out, EU down move rejected on relatively high volumeā€¦I agree it might go for a double top.

GU just failed to break above the 61.8 fib still in but moved sl to just above the 61.8.
Managed the trade badly should have got out earlier but could be text book 61.8 then back down.

Draw 50-61.8 fibs, major/minor on 5m and H1 charts.
Look at volume spikes, mark them as weakness/strength (5m and H1).
Get general idea of phase in H1 (itā€™s a mere suggestion to me, I wonā€™t overrule a trade by this since direction can change within the hour).
The most important step for me: Look for last possible entry, even if after hours or swing low etc. Play it like Iā€™m in that trade, look for a VSA exit (push thru/str/weak/NS/ND) or anything that would invalidate initial trade.
Mark possible stop loss, I always use 5 pips above/below recent significant swing.
Decide whether or not Risk/Reward is worth entering the trade.
IF VSA setup is correct, enter trade.

I wonā€™t enter:
-if entry is right on a 50 or 61.8 level, unless itā€™s on the other side.
-if AR level is at 50-61.8 fib.
-if thereā€™s no clear direction of volume.

Can you Elaborate on the marked part of those sentences? Thank you!

I donā€™t have a checklist yet though, but the ones who have will be really appreciated for educational uses :slight_smile:

Regarding the H1, say weā€™re in a markdown, and the 5m shows some high volume strength showing up, and it does the whole AR, push thru, before the hourly closes. Iā€™m not going to let that entry go by. Yeah, it is a bit risky, but still opens up a good opportunity for some profit at least.

Iā€™ll wait for the price to move through a fib level before considering an entry, especially if the entry is right at the Fib zone, one of Peteā€™s videos talk about this. That may make more sense.

So say we have a markdown, strength, bullish reaction, it does the whole Automatic Rally (or Automatic Reaction, tomayto tomahto) then does the whole push thru thing through that AR level. Well, if that AR zone is a 50-61.8 Fib, I wonā€™t take that trade, thereā€™s just a chance of it continuing down further.

Would you ever see this rejection as a buy signal with a TP at the resistance level mentioned?? Or is that just asking for trouble. Experts please your thoughtsā€¦

Have you released your new indicator that was mentioned on your 1/31/2012 post? A VSAā€™ers we need all the edge that we can get.
Regards, Drjack

No, I would see it as strength. After the rejection, iā€™d wait for a NS to jump long. In this case, I waited until the price went to the dayā€™s highā€¦realized there was not as much volume there as there was in the same area in the morning, and waited for the NS, hopped in at 1.3334 and got out at 1.3370ā€¦

It was late and risky, but the upward moves lacked volume regardless of the timeā€¦

Nice trade, yeah sign of strength, look for Ns and get in. I understand. Was your SL below the rejection??
Thanks

Since I was trading off the range around 1.3330ā€¦ I picked a conservative 1.3315 as an sl since I feared that the upward move couldā€™ve been a shakeout. Nevertheless, once it broke upwards, I set SL at BE, fortunately, it didnā€™t come back there.

Letā€™s see if thereā€™s any chance of getting something decent to end a sh*te week, itā€™s been like swimming in pea soup this week.

Very true PPF. I was thinking that the EU had some weakness there and may not be far from a bit of a fall, but keeps pushing back up, unless they are shaking some more traders out at the moment. Will be keeping an eye on it anyway :slight_smile:

Any thoughts as of this moment??

If you look at daily chart (e/u) you can easiliy set TL channel and fib. Well, now the price is approaching 50% (1.34347), monday maybe a retrace back to 38.2 (1.32432), than all the way to 61.8 (1.36262). Of course all this need to be confirmed by VSA principles.

I donā€™t like to watch smaller TF as a long-term overview, I got burned too many times before. My strategy is to draw TL and fib on Daily and H4, than watch 1H and 15 min to enter after correct VSA entry appears. I found 5min TF too small even for entry signal.


Guys I need to some critique to my rationale to gauge if Iā€™m getting this well and ensure I didnā€™t get lucky. In the GU I saw how the upward move was stopped as it moved to areas of historical interest. I didnā€™t see signs of sell interest, but saw back back testing of the 1.5890 levels at low volume. then I saw an NS in the 15m and entered where the red line is. conservatively, I go out at 1.583. I was it very similar to the behavior a yesterday before it took off in the afternoonā€¦thatā€™s why I took it.

Let me know your thoughts. Thanks!

Personally, Iā€™d say you nailed the NS entry as such. Maybe not as high a probability as there was recent supply just above there as evidenced in the 1000 candle and also further back, creating a point of resistance at about 1.58137. Although it did push through it this time, it wasnā€™t as high a probability because of that previous supply level.

Well done for the profits though. I have been without a trade today, but happy to wait till the chart is screaming at me :slight_smile: