Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

If you can attend the webinar tomorrow, I’ll be happy to give you detailed answers to your questions…better than a post.

Nice! I had the order ready to send, but had a bad feeling about buying in to the first resistance level. Was hoping it would push through (which it did) then retest it as support (which it didnt). Dang!

1hr is definitely building a cause, or its just swamping demand, but this is a pivotal area.

Came back into NYs range from yesterday, Blasted through yesterdays supply area (blue box) and now looking for interest in the .3130 area. I did get stopped out twice chasing the bottom, but I knew one was coming.

Closed small position of trade, if sell interest comes around .3130, I’m closing all.

Since someone asked, others may be wondering…tomorrow’s webinar is [I]free[/I] for all to attend.

G’day Pete,

Just found my way here having found your Youtube vids - I’d decided I really needed to get to grips with VSA ie. properly understanding it! Enlightened by your explanations and looking forward to trawling through this thread from the start.
A couple, or three, quick questions:
1./ How do I get to your webinar tomorrow - if not all self-explanatory in tomorrow’s post?
2./ Do you still use Murrey lines? I’ve been looking at them of late and I imagine that VSA should compliment them well, especially on the hourly TF.
3./ Have you observed any significant differences between FX broker ‘volume’ and that of the '6’s futures? (I know my normal trading software that includes VSA does - especially their [your!] stop-running!)

Regards
Davo

I use Webinar | GoToWebinar. I’ll post the meeting ID here when we start. Let’s talk about the other stuff tomorrow.

After the recent buying climax, I’m waiting for some ND bars to get short. Was someone long on that? I was waiting for weakness and then BAM!

Missed the initial climax on the AUD at 0000 GMT+2 as I was at work. Went long 0545 GMT+2 and took a ride for 23 pips till I saw supply come in at 1110 GMT+2. With a stoploss risking 1% total, I was happy to return a reasonably safe 1% for the trade. Went a bit higher, but that weakness made me want to bank my profit. Happy to have reversed my loss from earlier in the week :slight_smile: Just in profit from 2 trades this week. Will post the chart in a little while. Got to settle my son into bed :slight_smile:

Why did you trade long? those top wicks with big volume kept me away from the entire climax.

Just a little food for thought, Pete, re: Murrey:
1375 is obviously a key level for the SP500/ES. Weekly it’s 8/8th and Daily 4/8th. Last April it got close; last week the cash index poked it’s nose through a couple of times but failed to close above and the ES manage to close within 1/2 a pt. I can’t help thinking that we have just completed the C wave of an expanded flat W4 and we are in a ‘last-gasp’ 5th to get a fleeting close above, or a final ‘Kiss Goodbye’! I suspect a lot of shorts will be piled on from around 1360.
Catch you later

There’s a good chance today that the EUR will nudge up for short positions to be taken after the Bid rate announcement.

Yep, with all the high impact news in the next few hours I’m not looking to take a trade until it’s done. I will post the webinar login information shortly for the lesson today…

To attend today’s lesson:
Go to Webinar | GoToWebinar and click on “join meeting”. Enter ID: 789-820-138

Hi Trucomallica,
Have settled my son in for the night and just finished saving the chart out. and attached it below, or you can find it as well on myfxbook. I place my charts there as well against my trades.
Firstly, the high volume pin we would have wanted to indicate a bottom appeared while I was at work, so missed out on it. That was on the AU 1hr 0000 (GMT+2) bar.
The close of the 0200 (GMT+2) bar would have given me an indication to look for longs with the close of that bullish candle.
On the 5 min, two NS candles appeared 0210, 0215 (GMT+2) and confirmed 0220. This, to me would have given me a signal to go long, with S/L about 5 pips below the bottom of the previous pin (25 pips S/L).
In actuality, I was at work, and when I came home and checked the charts, I saw continued strength and entered at the next NS confirmation. Being a little bit hamstrung from closely monitoring the charts, I took my profit at the sign of weakness at 0915 for a bit over 20 pips. Just over 1% in profit for me.
An attentive trader would have locked S/L at BE after weakness @ 0325 (GMT+2) but let it run some still, with the target on the 50-61.8 fib level from March 1, which it hit that a bit over an hour ago. Like I said, I was already out.

So, if a trader entered at the right point and went to 50 fib level, what could he have taken in profit??
Enter 1.05220, SL @ 1.05270 (25 pips)
High probability setup, so 2% risk
Runs to 50 fib target @ 1.06633 (140 odd pips)
IF you let the trade run to fib and not take profit off (most would take half off at a first target), you could have made up to 11% on that trade, if my numbers were correct.
I am happy with what I made though, given the time I was able to spend on the chart etc. Put’s me back in to profit for the week.
Here is the chart …
1hr

and 5min

Caveat. I am still learning and could be wrong. It could have been lucky, but I believe it was all “by the book”

:wink:

Hi Petefader,

Thanks for the great webinar this morning. I’m sure a lot of people picked up quite a bit of info as did I. Have you considered doing a live trading room everyday, or is that more then you want to take on. Anyway, thanks again.

Mike

Hi,

excellent webinar, if anyone recorded it pls shoot me a pm

To Mikeytrader:
Pete does a trading room for $99 a month if you want to search google for Pete Fader sure it will show up. Don’t know if it covers London or not but I’ll probably be joining.

Hi,

can anyone help me in how I’m going about this VSA. Seeing examples and it makes sense, doing it realtime I end up questioning myself.

Attached my snapshot of GBP/USD as of today.

I see at number 1, 2 and 3 on the hourly a lot of activity, 1 is probably a news candle but 2 and 3 seem to be preventing it from dropping. I marked that area of support as ‘b’.

I see that it has topped out at ‘a’ so I marked this area as well. The volumes died away but thats because it was the asian session = lower volumes anyway.

Through to today volumes are increasing which I would expect at the start of the London Open but its all still contained within the a and b s/r bands.
I drew a fib between a and b but it didn’t say much to me.

So what am i actually looking for right now. I can’t be sure I am looking at this right.

  1. Am I looking now for an entry just above zone a (green triangle), a buy

  2. or should I be waiting for it to just pull above zone a and come back a bit.?

  3. Or is this a sell setup?, I could justify if someone said to me actually the higher activity was stopping it going higher, the smart money is getting in its sell orders at the best price.

I’m a bit confused, any insight would be appreciated before I go the next step into 5 min charts.

many thanks
PG


With the benefit of hindsight it dropped through, sharply down, so hopefully this was a valid set up that never materialised, but the nagging Q I have is was this a sell setup I didn’t see correctly.

looks like big boys went up on BS Greece news just to load up on shorts, won’t be surprised to see even 1.3130 today

unless they’move it back up say 1.3180, or we’ll have on monday minus 150p session, thats only me:) anyway volume ain’t working in forex…:smiley:

:49: Are you sure?