As far as the candles and volume, the setup is right. Decent stopping vol (although not great), NS and NS conformation/push thru. But, the place where this happened, just BELOW the 618 is not high probability in my book. Once price can sit below 618 for more than a candle or two, I don’t take the long.
Also, technically our 1hr “background” was weakness today, looking at the 1hr highs and the supply that came in there yesterday. Luckily things are very bullish…I’d rather be buying, but I didn’t against that background. Typically that’s not a high prob situation to go long. So, 5 min was right…but a bit of luck since you bought against weakness to the left.
I am finding this all very useful but regarding the use of Fibs, can i just clarify - the 50 - 61.8 levels can be used on the H1 charts to help confirm areas of trend continuation following a pull back BUT on the M5 charts the 50 - 61.8 levels should be avoided in case of trend reversal?
They have the same purpose on both TFs, to show an area of possible reversal, using volume to judge. It can be used for entry areas, targets and stop placement.
Entering a trade in a fib zone is perfectly fine. I think you mean entering a trade that is headed towards a a near by fib zone, so that it’s potential may be limited. Or, trading towards the 618 while in the zone (as opposed to trading in the direction of the 50). That wouldn’t be right. Besides that it’s fine.
1H AUDUSD: I dont really see stopping volume from Friday/Monday. Price retraces to 50-61.8 fib - rejected on good volume. I went long here on a NS and price reverses 50 pips as soon as I click ‘buy’.
1H USDCAD: same ****. No stopping volume on the downmove, slow reatrace up on low volume them a nice spike in volume at the 50-61.8 fib with a very sexy pin showing good supply. Plenty of ND entries, went short on one of them, and reverses to take out my SL.
I think what I did wrong here was impatience…didnt wait for 1H confirmation…but the charts looked SO DAMN GOOD to me!!! Am I not seeing weakness (for AUD) or strength (CAD) in the background??? Someone console me
I think the main thing you did wrong, was trade at the wrong time of day, I’d recommend sticking to the EURUSD for learning, the venture into pairs that are a little more exotic when you are more experienced.
BTW, which broker are you using for your charting? Your charts don’t seem to correlate to mine at all, I might be wrong, it can be difficult to work out what’s going on with different timeframes, but I don’t seem to be able to make sense of the volumes.
I totaly agree. You really don’t need to trade with so many currencies. If you study well one (eu for example) it can bring you enough pips. I stick with the rule “less is more” - it is working excellent in forex!!
Thanks guys for the feedback. PPF, I use IBFX australia as my broker for price feeds. In regards to the importance of sticking to session times - is this because volume readings are irrelevent outside the sessions? Are the volume movements just correlations of other currencies etc?
I think IBFX is ok, it’s only a couple that are a no no, it’s just that I couldn’t match up the volumes to my chart, but now I’ve had a look at my IBFX MT4 I can see it, so you’re Ok.
Volumes are always relevant, but outside of London and NY sessions there just isn’t enough volatility most of the time to trade.
am waiting for the long too…opening my eyez wide open for a NS and comfirmation…but it as to be little risk or am not going to buy…cos we are on distribution phase now. …if the fib zone holds will go short…lol
