Not that im any expert in the area, but the approach im taking towards learning the correct phases is looking over previous charts, or at night time looking over what price did during that day - and if it went up / down, i look at volume prior to the moves and try to determine what phase that would have been prior mark up/mark down. It’s been helpful to me so give it a go…
I think this will be helpful as long as you understand the basic concept of what happens of each parts of the phase during the mark up / mark down…
Epidot,
It has been covered before, and although Petefader has given so much help in his videos etc, I think we need to be appreciative of what he has done for us, rather than continual requests for him to do more videos etc … for free. Looking through the forum as well as a good read of Master the Markets will help.
Also, here is a link Petefader has used in the past to help a bit. All easily searchable on google. http://www.hankpruden.com/MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf
and also MTA - Market Technicians Association
I hope that helps, but please have a good look around and not ask too much of Petefader. It may end up stretching the friendship a bit too far
Epidot, i think a great way to get more info from Pete is to join his class. The help he gives us now he’s doing out the kindness of his heart. And he will continue to help you even if you dont join his class. However to give a little back to him i suggest you join. You’ll be present in his webinars and you can ask him all the questions your little heart desires.
I’m still biased long on the EU. However if we look at where supply came in and look at what happened when that area was approached we can see the bearish reactions. If i see some demand come in and it swamped by supply i’m going to take a short down to the 50-61 fib of this last move.
Just to add on to what SanJ said…and correct me if i’m wrong guys…
To me, in order to determine which phases you are in also depends on which timeframe you are looking at. A daily chart could be under accumulation, but a 5 min chart could be under distribution. Kinda similar to Elliot waves where there are smaller waves within a bigger wave.
What i usually do is to look for stopping volume in the time frame that i’m watching (say 1h). Stopping volume usually have the highest volume relative to its previous move. So say the move is down… stopping volume would be the highest or most obvious volume spike during that down move. Then i’d go down to 5 or 15min to look for accumulation tell tail signs (that’s where the push thru video and no demand/supply video comes in handy).
i dont care about news:p should be quite a battle on 1.345 zone, if we get there…
there’s a talk about chinese DNT 1.3-1.35 just for the record, cos dont care about it either:33:
I think I learnt something important today. I setup many fibs that I saw on many time frames such as along with SnR and trend lines then went to work waiting to come home to see what price did… what fibs it obeyed.
It simply retraced onto the 1 hr fib and at the trend channel support before markup to make a higher high. A text book 50% retrace upmove… I over complicated things with all the fibs…
Please answer this question.
How do you get a balance between taking notice of the high time frame fibs but NOT making decisions and worry about them too much? for instance you may be waiting for a bounce off the 50% fib on 1hr but you notice a daily TF fib with reistance just above, or a 4hr fib just below. Maybe price will bounce off the 1hr fib and get stuck straight way at the daily fib and mess up your trade, or price might not obey the 1hr fib but instead the 4 hr…
How do you look out for these things and how do you just trade 1 hr fibs when so many others can influence price?
2Epidot: I use H1 chart and sometimes I draw some fibs (if the swings are well pronounced)… if the price is in the “fib zone” (50-61.8) I expect some supply/demand changes and I look for them on the M5. Other times I use fibs only on M5. No need to overcomplicate things. Just do what Pete says :)… He never recommended drawing fibs on H4 or D1, did he?
I think what petefader has been getting at in these threads, is to combine the use of tick volume along with key S/R levels and fib levels. If price for example is bearish heading down towards a key S/R / fib level, you would want to look for increased amount of volume ie stopping volume, stopping the bearish move. The lack of the increase in volume at these key areas show dis-interest from SM to try and create the bounce off these levels, and therefore price will continue through this level…
My interpretation anyway - any of the more experienced VSA’ers please correct me if im wrong…
Price doesn’t have to be near any fib zone if the setup is valid… For example local buying climax on M5 with mark-down phase in the background followed by no demand and valid no demand entry.
If you zoom out on the 1hr or lower TF, you see that nearly all the accumilation/distribution areas are purely low volume “overnight” low activity areas…
So how can we label such things as "Smart money secretly buying or selling??? Europe and America are ASLEEP!!!
I am going to give a go at this here vsa because I can see the value in it and even though it is not a method I am actively applying I believe if I mindfully observe price and volumes I will pick up a thing or two.
Given the picture I am about to post I am wondering if we have a bearish or bullish outlook. My bias has been short ever since the head and shoulders appeared but it seem today showed strong stopping volume with an inside close and off she went.
The highest volume on the day was a widespread upbar, but as you can see there has been follow thru and price has drifted higher. If price pulls back to the 50 fib that looks like very strong resistance turned support and a good place to get long from.
All in context Epidot. Compare the volume to previous days at the same time and you will have an idea as to whether it is abnormally high or low.
The fib zones are not an absolute rule. Today the chart will bounce off it, tomorrow it will go through it. The fib zone gives us an area to concentrate on what the volume is doing and an expectation that volume could increase in that area. We have all seen fib zones regected on low volume, regected on high volume, pushed through on low volume and pushed through on high volume. Anything can happen. It simply tells us that there is a possibility that volume could increase at that fib and to notice the important things, such as spread, closing price, volume, and the reaction to that.
I attempted a demo trade today and failed big time. On the 5 min i saw demand at 7:00gmt. I saw a push through and then lower vol retest and ND at 8:05am. I placed a trade here expected a move down towards the 1hr fib. Price went down a few pips before taking off on a markup. I thought I saw SV or BC but maybe i didnt. Maybe you cant get SV or BC out side of the Londond to US market hours??
I’m not sure Epidot, I just can’t see a trade at all, but ask yourself, did the volumes stand out or were you just looking at higher volume rather than high volume, maybe you’re looking to hard, wait for the stark raving obvious trade, the ones that come out and stare you right in the face, post your chart and I can give you a better answer.
