Here’s a disaster of a trade that i took on EJ.
Saw overwhelming signs of weakness on 1 hr. and then jumped in on the traditional ND confirmation on 5 min.
Am still flummoxed by the fact that it shot through the roof but only in the opposite direction as i believed that i was a near perfect entry and was expecting atleast a 70-80 pip move.
Here’s another one that i took in GU.
This one went in 40 pips in my favor but again i was expecting a much bigger move hence didnt exit at the fib of the upmove in anticipation of more pips with all the weakness in the background…sounds greedy eh?? I’ve let a winner turn into a loser…
This trade is still going on…
There are two things that i should’ve done but didn’t maybe b’coz of my uber confidence
Yeah that’s why I could not understand how vsa didn’t work yesterday, all the pairs did that. Besides that, if you look at the EURUSD you will see from the previous week all that buying that occurred on the down move. Price meandered to the down side and then shot up on friday like close to 300 points with all that selling volume coming in and price still shot up. Just when I thought I got my head around the vsa concept , price movement seems to not jive with it at times which to me means inconsistency. one tends to lose confidence in a method when it works sometime and not more times than not. How do you build wealth when you cant be in consistent profit. How do you track the foot print of smart money when some how the foot print is miss leading? I wish someone could explain what has occurred this week?
I have been waiting for that up move from last week but I took numerous losses trying to catch it, price just kept meandering down, so Im like wow, vsa doesn’t seem to work or maybe we are in a down trend and then boooooom! price shoots up like a pressure cooker top without releasing the steam first.
If anyone has been stupid enough to open a pressure cooker top without letting out the steam they know what I mean, you could really hurt yourself and have food all over your cielling.
Normally i leave mondays and fridays alone and dont trade…but y’day i had the day off and i saw the moves on almost all pairs well before london had begun…well that should’ve set the warning bells ringing…rarely have i seen such big moves occur pre london.
But the weakness was so overwhelming that i was damn sure we were in for a biggie down ride.
EJ i got totally wrong even though price was at a fib with ultra high vol & rej of the high
GU i was spot on but didnt exit half position and locked break even at the fib in anticipation of an even bigger move.
So its not that vsa doesn’t work…its just that mondays and fridays are usually not good for trading…not always but more often than not…
Secondly such pre london moves should be viewed and traded with a great deal of caution…
I dont think Pete, Kyle or Dodge would have traded on Friday…am i right guys???
So I asked a question on Pete’s webseminar that Kyle has so elegantly answered and I thought it would be fair to share it with the rest of the VSA family here on baby pips. They concern basic things about trading but I am sure there are n00bs out there like me that might get confused with the terminology so I guess its a win since education is never a waste of time.
My questions were:
1.Concerned with the actual definition and method of lockbreak even and taking half profit. If you watch pete’s videos (and we all should!) he takes these actions towards the end of the trade and are the utmost importance for proper trade management which is half the game itself.
2.What is defined as climatic action? Where is it found and characterizes it.
**All credit goes to Kyle for taking the time writing the answers. Now His answers to these questions, respectively:
1.To state it simply for you, just say you go long at 1.00 with 1 Lot and your target is 1.10. When you get to 1.10, you close out 0.5 lots which is profit straight into your pocket. Then you move your stoploss to 1.00 which was the starting price. You have half a lot left and the risk on that half a lot is zero because if it hits breakeven, the trade closes out, giving you an overall profit from the first half you closed out. However, if the trade continues to go well, you still have half that position to gain profit from.
That is when trade management is important as you will close out at some stage. That is when you watch the volume, especially at previous support/resistance levels, along with fib levels. When you get a higher than “normal” volume with a high pin, it is a real warning sign that the end of the run may possibly be there, or soon. However, trades can hit that and continue still, so at those times, you may choose to take some more profit, or even move Stoploss to just behind the previous support/resistance level
2.Climactic action quite often defines the end of a trend, if the following candle supports that, ie a high volume up candle on an uptrend. It will have a large pin at the top and the volume will be quite high compared to the same time on previous days (1hr). Sometimes it may continue a little bit higher before hitting high volume again and reverse. That is a sign of “preliminary support/weakness” and then the trend turn. This is shown very well on the Wyckoff Schematic that Pete has sent out previously. It also does not necessarily need to be a doji, but the important thing really is a large pin area on very high volume and then the following candle confirming the trend change by going in the opposite direction. An absolute classic if you’d liek to see it would be on January 13 on the AU chart (1hr). Perfect climactic event with AU @ 1.02840 then going on an up trend until reaching 1.0840. There have been few like that since, but it is probably the best example this year.
I was watching this price action, and felt uncomfortable taking any short trades here, as the price action was during off hours and clearly news related. I was actually looking for long trades here, ended up going long on a push through, and getting stopped out at BE.
The GPB/USD trade was better, but as you said, you should’ve exited some at the fib, and set stop to BE.
Keep it up!
If I see a good trade, and it’s at the right time of day, I’ll take the trade even on a Monday or Friday.
I too will continue to take’em but now i’ll be more apprehensive and wary of pre-london moves…
When did that happen??
AFAIK Pete informs everyone on this thread about any webinars that he conducts…dont quite remember any webinar hosting recently…
I surely wouldn’t want to miss any of Pete’s webinars…
Pete has Webinars three times a week, he only publicizes the free ones.
I actually took both of those same trades, and use a totally different trading strategy to this thread. Don’t be to alarmed, these things happen, and on my own strategy the signal looked reasonably strong.
Thanks Dodge…
Nice to find someone in the same boat that hit the iceberg…
and the water wasn’t cold enough to freeze my ass off…so am waitin with bated breath for the rescue team to arrive 
Hi Pete,
are you always wait for the berrish\bulish reaction bar to close?
I went in to this trade (short) to early and i was stopped out. then enter again later but i already lose some pips.
How can I attend those webinars?
Well, if you guys want a webinar, we can do that. I don’t always have time to answer questions here, so we can cover some ground there. Around Aisa open, in 3 hours from now would be good for me if you guys will be around.
…or just plan for tomorrow during US session.
Hi Petefader,
I would be very interested in your webinar, how can I attend please?
OK, I’ll post the info here to join the webinar around 10:30-11 EST. (about 2 hours from now)
Hey Pete, waiting for it with bated breath…
