Pete, is summer the worst season to trade?
Iād have to say it is. Less activity overall gives more days with small ranges, spikey candles, but of course opportunities will arise.
This craziness today is due to the Euro interest rate change. Probably the biggest mover Iāve seen over the years, fundie driven, is rate changes.
Just as I said itās boring days to trade, thereās some movement. Itās 150 pips high to low. Itās just as big as the old days.
Question, when you have these fundamentals news activity occurring, who is inclined to sell, smart money? and if so whoās buying into the selling, smart money? these sell orders are they set previous to the news event coming out or are they orders coming into th emarket after the fact?
So even if you have strong volume at a certain level ( [U][/U][B]buying volume characterized by a down bar with high volume[/B]), news events can still overcome that strong buying and there could be more selling to break that level or area correct?
But as selling is occurring whoās buying and whoās the oneās dumping? with that said, the best way to confirm an up move is to wait for an up move, retrace with a test , lo volume down bar which signifies no supply?
After all, the game of speculation isnāt all mathematics or set rules, however rigid the main laws
may be. Even in my tape reading something enters that is more than mere arithmetic. There is
what I call the behavior of a stock, actions that enable you to judge whether or not it is going to
proceed in accordance with the precedents that your observation has noted. If a stock doesnāt act
right donāt touch it; because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which
way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit. :54:
HHHHMMMMM! I see. So in other words, clear signals is what you wanna look for?
There are not always clear signals. Same goes for the fact that sometimes a clear signal sets up and nails everyone. VSA hedges the advantage your way. It is not 100% and never will be.
Smart Money mostly has their money in place before a news move. Donāt think that the results do not get out beforehand. People pay big $$$ to be told little snippets of information and make money on that. Insider trading??? Yes it is. Prove it?? Would be next to impossible.
After a major news announcement, it would be useful to have a close look at your chart. It is easier in hindsight to see things, but that can also train your brain to see what you need. Quite often, you can see where the SM have been slowly building positions, only to buy/sell into that news nice and quick so pass the holdings off to the unsuspecting herd. It just keeps on happening.
Our job is to find this and attach ouselves to the SM like suckerfish and join the trade with them 
its what pete teach and its the only thing to trade for. :54:
I donāt know bro, as long as I have been trading, I have yet to come across a method that brings consistency. if the method works sometimes then how do you build wealth from inconsistency? I donāt get it, I have seen th emethod work and I have seen the method totally work in the opposite of how i seen it work in the past. It seems like vsa is left to each personās interpritation I feel like giving up trading, I have lost so much in the last two to three years. This method , that method and nothing brings consistency.
Hey dappa! I understand how you feel, but bear in mind the only consistent about trading is uncertainty.
Thus we need to bring in solid risk management approach. Nothing is 100%, we may have small losses now but in the future, we know our larger wins will overcome all these little losses and bring us into positive territory once again. Dont give up dont despair, you have no idea how close you are to consistent profitability! So hang in there.
A casino analogy would be useful here, do they know if theyāre next bet would be a win or loss? No they donāt they simply let the law of probability favour them over a large number of bets, same for trading! So donāt let a few losses bring you down, in no time your edge will play out and youāll be back to profitability!
Very true Fartist, and donāt give u on it dappa.
You will not find something that works all the time. There is no 100% method out there. The idea, in short is that the market can go up or down. 50/50 probability. What we do is skew that probability in our favour, so that the expectancy is in our favour. We will always have losing runs. I lost 4 in a row in May, but the conditions in May, in hindsight, made it hard to trade any normal VSA, since it kept pushing through the stopping volume. It is times like that where we need to know that the market conditions do not favour us and we are best out of the market until normality resumes.
One very big thing to remember as well, is that entries are only a small part of the overall picture. We need to learn where our SL needs to be set, along with a strategy that helps us to get out of the trade at the right time. In what I have been taught, SL needs to be at a point where the VSA setup has failed. Most times, I have mine about 5 pips past a previous SR level, or 5 pips above/below a 50-61.8 fib level. When the probability of the trade breaks down (and there will be times when that happens) we need to get out of the trade and cop the loss on the chin.
Also, we need to let our winners run when we can. For example, run your trade to first profit target, move stoploss to breakeven, eliminating risk and possibly pocketing 1/3 to half of your position. Then let the rest run till volume dictates an exit.
I have been trading Live since December and have steadily built may account. I am currently over 17% in profit, and less than 1% from my highest ever equity point.
Patience, discipline and more patience will get you through.
Hi, can you please post proof that this system works? Im looking for day trade strategy that works and this one sounds nice.
Thanks in advance.
Hate to be crude here but thereās no short cut my friend.
You can trade anyway you want as long as youāre comfortable with it! If you wanna learn vsa inside out, then start with this thread and all the video materials on the front page.
After which, open a demo account, and forward test what you have learnt.
Risk 1% a trade and after 6 months of foward testing, you have a string of data which can be summarised into information like win% losses% average risk reward etc.
You have to put in the hardwork and sadly to say no one is going to do it except you yourself.
anyone see the volume on the 1H EUR/USD? itās the highest volume since june 2010?? price virtually stopped moving following that volume. itās locked in a 20 pip range for 17 hours hovering on a monthly pivot point (S1) and support level from late may, early june.
Its NFP later, so possibly traders keeping on the sidelines.
Also, after a strong down move, price tends to consolidate for while before making another move.
Thatās some serious discipline there. Keep it up!
In a narrow market, when
prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a
narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the
next big movement is going to be ā up or down. The thing to do
is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of
the get-nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will
not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in
either direction. A speculator must concern himself with mak-
ing money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape
must agree with him. :54:
Hey Tassiefx and fartist, Thanks for the advice and encouraging words, I will stick with vsa for it makes more sense than any indicator system I have tried and looked at in the past.
perfect example as to what I was talking about guys, today there are no vsa volume signal that gives us a heads up to the down move but price is just dropping.
Wild one this week. Very happy to have 3 wins, no loss (e/u short monday, a/j long tuesday Aisa, ej long tuesday US). I can see how it could be a tough one for those still learning. It took lots of patience and experience. Donāt chase price, know what your looking for and wait etc. Anyway, we are all fuc#*$ crazy for trading the foreign exchange in 2012, lol.
Hereās some REAL news from Celente. Itās a bit depressing but Iād rather that than be ignorant, or smoke the "hope"ium and think someone is going to come save us. I feel like taking a bat to all the banks windows in town. That would make me like Jesus. 