Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Firstly I want to say thanks to Pete for both threads and the youtube vids - these have been a great resource for me as a learning VSA trader.

I wonder if someone can help me with the recent goings on in GU. Even though there was a big rise last week I thought there were definite signs of new accumulation after the new recent high. I spent most of yesterday buying in to high volume rejections and watching price get lower each time. If Pete or any other experienced VSA people could give me a clue as to what smart money were up to yesterday it would go a long way to helping me fully understand VSA.

Why are they continually buying every time price gets lower? Surely they should have propped price up at some point as price is now way below where they originally started buying?

Hereā€™s a chart highlighting what I mean.


Hey I have had the same problem with vsa, it doesnā€™t always work. so its like a 50/50 method. The answer the senior guys will give you will be the same thing, vsa is not %100 , does not work all the time etcā€¦

Exactly dappa,
It will never work 100% of the time (I am currently on a 4 trade losing streak), however, it puts the odds in your favour. Rather than a 50/50 guess, you use vsa to move the odds into your favour and win more than you lose. It does work and it works well :slight_smile:
Also, it is a very hard time of the year. The northern summer shuts some players down as they enjoy their summer break, and the constant news out of the Eurozone etc has made the market favour fundies a bit more than technical analysis at the moment. You get a perfect setup and entry, then bloody Draghi says something unannounced and kills your trade.

I keenly wait for setups to occur but clean vsa setups have become rare as henā€™s teeth of lateā€¦

Pete must have gone through such conditions many a times since amongst all of us he is the most veteran trader and this is the time to sit on our hands and try not to reinvent the wheelā€¦

I dont know whether or when those clean vsa setups will return or whether the very fabric of market has been altered drastically altogetherā€¦only timeā€™ll tell

Pete, if you donā€™t mind can you share the longest period when you havenā€™t taken a trade apart for being away on vacations et alā€¦your answer will go a long way in instilling hopes in such insipid markets and torrid timesā€¦

We go through this every year. Trading conditions start to decline after July 4th and worsen by August. Itā€™s normal. By the 2nd week in Sept. things are looking better. This is my experience year in and year out. Also, it has been a tough year with global fears through the roof. Still, itā€™s hard to believe sometimes that: A. things will get so bad this time of year, and B. that it will return to normal, but then it [I]always does[/I]. The market is just that dynamic.

Does everyone here use an ECN broker?

I believe a few do. I use a STP broker on a Pro account, so the spreads are greatly reduced. For example, right now EU is 0.9, GU 1.2, AU 1.2. However, in that, I also pay a commission of $3.50 per lot. Normally with my broker, the EU spread would be about 1.9, so I reduce 1 pip in spread to pay $3.50 per lot, which works for me.

As far as brokers go, make sure they are not a ā€œmarket makerā€ as such and place the position against you. These guys only make money when you lose, and if you profit over time, they will end up shutting your account down. An STP broker places the trade on your behalf and takes their bit out on the placement of the trade, whether it is in commission, spread, or both. A true STP broker wants you to profit. If you profit and build your account, the commissions and spreads paid also go up, which is money for them.
An ECN broker does the same as the STP, but I believe they work on commission only. They are also the same where they make more money as your account grows, so it is in their best interest for you to profit. I believe ECN Brokers have a deeper liquidity model to get their feeds from, however, if you find a STP broker that has enough multi-bank feeds, liquidity is also good with them for your VSA analysis.
As far as analysis goes, remember, you donā€™t need the broker that your money is with for the charting. For example, I use IBFX for my charting, but use GoMarkets for my actual transactions.

I hope that helps out somehow :slight_smile:

Thanks Tassie. Iā€™m located in the USA, so we dont have to many choices for ecn/stp brokers.

Iā€™m checking out MB Trading Desktop Pro platform. It displays volume. Iā€™ve noticed differences in volume between IB FX Metatrader and MB Trading Desktop Pro. Which platform should I trust?

Iā€™ve used MB Tradingā€™s MT4 platform for a while. Their spreads are fairly low and they are said to be a true ECN. I donā€™t really have too many complaints against them. I use IBFX MT4 for volume in addition to MBā€™s MT4 volume. I would think that most of the people that comment a lot in this thread would say regardless of who they trade with they use IBFX MT4 for volume.

Hi pete, the link is down could you reupload it again? cheers. :slight_smile:

http://www.hankpruden.com/MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf

That should help :slight_smile:

thanks Tassie :slight_smile: more studying and reflecting in real time. saw lots of vsa action today. they were sneaking in buying the lows on the eurusd.

I wonder if there is mismatch in Schematic 2 description and picture. Description is about distribution, but picture belongs to accumulation phase

can you clarify is it so ?

Anyone here is using Oanda as a dealer ?
WTF happened to the volumes on EUR/US this afternoon ? the volumes are above 4000 on 5 min TF with spread just 2 - 3 pips, seems rather like sort of glitch

yes i was wondering what was going on; now itā€™s over 5000. for those that donā€™t know on average its its 10% of thatā€¦

[edit]
and now over 40,000 ā€¦
[/edit]

I see it tooā€¦over 53566 and climbing. It looks like an errorā€¦

IBFX doesnt show any abnormality with volumesā€¦
its over on Oanda and hopefully wont happen again

Where can I download your videos :smiley: Iā€™d like to watch then at work but donā€™t wanna eat up my data plan

This is Peteā€™s channel on youtubeā€¦ YouTube you should download them and watch them again and again. They are awesome.