I probably shouldn’t have doubled up on USD trades, but I’m short the GU and AU on the high volume at the end of their up moves. AU is sitting in profit and GU has crept into profit as well.
Talking frm the chart …A/U did not give any valid sell …but G/U just did wit the push tru and test entry …u are just lucky wit A/U …look closely or tell why u took A/U.
I admit AU did not give a “signal” but Pete advised me to begin to trade off of logic.
I saw high amounts of volume (supply?) enter the market on the AU, at a price which stopped price once before. A move to the downside, to me, seemed extremely likely. I did get stopped out at breakeven though because I eliminated my AU risk as I took on GU risk. Thankfully the GU ran for me.
Its much risky when u do dat …its better u take more time reading abt vsa than just doing that …am now make 60pips on G/U and trailing it by 15pips …an already a rich man today if u understands …lol
Yes it is more risky. I need to work on it some more. We both made good trades off of GU, I sold early though because I have class early today.
Hey Pete, another question.
This is probably my first actual stint at VSA trading, probably my first noteworthy attempt at trading forex period. But I’m noticing a few things.
You see weakness/strength in a pair and it finally begins it’s move, let’s say you enter with the trend. After climatic volume stops the move, do you begin to look for trades with the volumes “newfound” direction or with your original analysis?
I’d post an example but I’m on campus right now.
The new found is the 1 u go with cos the former background av played him self out …jst lik graduating frm 1 class to another .I hope dis hlps out …peace andother week on + .
hey pete and all the others,
i have to ask you something because it stops my learning progress and i really don´t get it… i really can´t understand (listening and understanding contentual) what you say about retrace trade entries at fib level 0,5 and 0,61.
it is video NS/ND min 17:00!
i try to explain what i understand:
1.)
you DON´T want to trade the ND (in case of markdown and retrace to fiblevel) when it comes to area of the fiblevel because?? (this is the part i don´t get) few minutes later you tell that there is more risk but i don´t understand why? sure, there is higher volume but isn´t the probability also high that price will bounce back in trend direction? i understand something with high volume at this points and selling pressure but i don´t get the coherence – lack of understanding 
[B]EDIT:[/B] after sleeping and dreaming of this problem 
(no joke) i think i came to an answer. you don´t want to trade there because of high volume! this is the only reason i can imagine! when we want to catch a textbooktrade there is an inbalance between supply and demand, so that the way is free for price to move to balance again. but at fiblevels we don´t have this situation! there is “war” but we want to enter when “war” is over and we can go with the winner… hopefully i got it 
2.)
furthermore you DO want to trade a ND (in case of markdown and retrace in direction to fiblevel) but you would like to see it when it doesn´t come to this fib-area, right?
maybe you or another person could help me with this!
thanks and have a nice weekend with your families and friends… (my friend is phase atm )
I remember the first couple times I watched that video, that same part around 17:00 had me a little confused as well. Your analogy of war really makes sense. The battle of supply/demand, to me, is the basis of all markets.
What I’d say about that point is that if price were to reach that level, .50 - .618, I’d be looking for weakness to appear with that high volume, trend is your friend. If the high volume appeared as strength, then entering any trade wouldn’t be smart due to the conflicting signals.
It would however make sense if we saw strength as stopping volume and then saw continued strength through the 50 fib. Buyers buy low don’t they?
Remember to always interpret the high levels of volume, as they should always be able to tell you a detailed picture of what price is actually doing.
i took the analogy from this thread… pete used it before. 
i agree with you that i would look for weakness too. what else? what is confusing, is that pete says it loud an clear (or i totally misunderstand at this point: “no way” and there he means trading a pullback at these fiblevels…)
now i have to ask me why? i mean, if we have high volume, isn´t this a good sign seeing weakness coming in? if we have low volume… then we are supposed to be that there is no supply and we would not think about searching for ND.
but thinking of the basics of VSA; when we look for the big picture in H1, we also use retraces in H1 to search for entry points in M5, don´t we? i guess i misunderstand in the grammer or sthg like that because it makes no sense for me atm… or maybe i really have a lack of understanding …
and for being sure, we talk about the same problem, here is the screenshot:(the text in the picture was a note for me!)
Pretty slow to start out the morning. Took a loss on an EJ short but it was entirely my fault, misread the analysis. I knew strength was in the market but incorrectly marked a AR zone.
Yeah TSE, I honestly can’t figure out exactly what he meant in that video at that particular junction but I also haven’t seen any mishaps or misconceptions in his analysis anywhere else. More times then not in his videos and threads, I notice trades being taken off of high vol bounces with the .50 - .618.
Live webinar lesson in 45 minutes (10am EST). Info will be posted here.
Here’s an example of this point I was trying to make.
Here in the AU, we saw high VOL with a bearish reaction on the first bar I highlighted. Price continued to rally and once again on VOL almost reaching the highest of the day, there was a bearish reaction.
Effort vs. Result would say it was aggressive buying but I’m not sure what the bearish reactions indicate. Price began to fall and then there was an increase in VOL, which was probably demand, forming a pin bar. So would one look for shorts or longs?
Did you mean to post a chart?
The Webinar is over. Went by really fast but we covered some good stuff.
Miss it. recorded?
Yes I meant to but my frustration this morning probably made me forget lol. Here’s an example of today’s problem I found myself in.
- Saw a large down candle on highest volume of the day, close off the low. Next bar didn’t exactly confirm there were buyers due to the lower close, right? There was also news in 20 minutes so I sadly skipped that long, or was that smart money positioning? If that’s the case, maybe a bullish reaction should have been there.
- After the news rally with a bearish reaction, I marked the AS and waited for a break. It broke but shot back up. It shouldn’t have taken out stops if placed correctly.
- ND
- ND Confirmation but on higher volume than last 10~ volume bars with a bullish reaction. What does that mean? Price eventually fell but I couldn’t of known.
I took a AU trade because after the news release, the EU hovered around its AR for almost 80 minutes. Jeez! And after the EU ND and Confirmation, another 90~ minutes passed with a progression of only 10 pips. Talk about needing leverage.
I lost that AU trade only to find it out it ran, but that too hovered around the same price for a long time. I’m so close to being always profitable but my timing is off and my patience runs thin with hopes of “cutting loses short” due to stalled prices, which is why I lost my AU trade.
I sound like I’m complaining but I’m just dishing out my thought process so it can be scrutinized for improvements.
Thanks
It means what you think it means, buying/strength. So you account for that in your analysis and assessment of probability and make you decision. It’s one piece of information among many, most of which are saying short. It does suggest the down move may be limited or lost a lot of probability. Remember, you’re not looking for the perfect setup. You are looking for a good probability and at a good price for limited risk and potential high reward ideally.
With that last stuff you said…sounds like sitting in a trade actually takes some sort of energy out of you. It shouldn’t. It’s a non event until you have to manage it. Watch youtube vids, check your email. As far as when to get out. The ideal stop is in an area where the trade looses a lot of probability, so no need to draw down further. You get out when it’s hit, or if you see a reason to manage the trade like a high volume sign against you etc.
Yes, but I wont be able to post on youtube.