Ahh… Thank you for clarifying the ND and NS candles. However, if it is not the lack of demand, what caused the price to plummet like that?
Cheers.
We have Unemployment Claims and a GDP release today. I’ll be on the lookout for Smart Money pre-positioning before hand, but we have already seen USD plummet this morning. I rather not say prices should shoot up but I wouldn’t be surprised.
Hey Guys, forgive me, I can’t post a picture until I get a few more posts. I am not taking any trades at the moment but wanted to see if I’m on the right track with what to keep an eye out for. I am looking at the E/U this morning. I see that the 5min had some good climactic action at the news release, and then price was stopped from moving down further. I am currently watching the 1H chart. If the next bar were an up bar with decent volume, would you guys then be looking for a NS on the 5min to get in long? The other thing I did notice is that the volume on the 1H that closed at 8am CST wasn’t as big as I thought it would be. Accordingly, its definitely not the biggest volume that has occurred since the down move started. Does this fact then negate everything I just said? Any thoughts are appreciated! Thanks.
High Vol on previous 1hr I think is a bit exaggerated due to news. E/U’s strength appeared in sorta a random spot but G/U has a couple tech levels that line up (50 fib, inverse H&S shoulder). I’m going conservative and waiting for the 1hr reaction candle to close. Also noticing a possible a/j short. Again, not rushing it and waiting for 1hr closes now and see what we have.
Well the volume on the 8EST 1HR bar that included the news release was the highest volume of the day. During the event, it was evident it was stopping volume on the down move, meaning we could be looking for longs, break/test/continuation, NS. However, the recent trend is down and this volume wasn’t the highest of the down move so it adds additional risk to going long.
If the news is at 8:30, and you wait for the 9 o’clock 1 hour bar to close, you’ve probably missed a decent portion of the move. What’s best, from my little experience, is to watch the reaction on the 5/15 minute, and conclude what Smart Money has done, coupled with the background from the 1HR.
The EU hasn’t made any moves since the news release but I see a couple failed NS and a Automatic Rally forming. A break of that would correlate to an Up Bar on the 1HR.
No trade for me today and I have to do something else now. Was very close to the A/J short but I stayed conservative which was my plan from the beginning today. There was not a ND entry, was temped to chase but didn’t…and I’m glad. Still a small piece of that A/U long from yesterday is running. Was able to grab +55 pips and leave some on to possibly run…so it’s not over yet with signs of strength again there today.
What makes you decide whether your going to trade conservative or aggressive? Is it based on the something with the market or personal reasons?
Two things. The market was not giving me good clean info today. The highest volume was on news besides that, it was pretty flat. Aggressive works when the market is communicating well.
Also, I didn’t want to risk giving back what I made yesterday unless it was a very good setup and even then I would have lowered risk to be sure I end the week with decent profit (I usually don’t trade Friday’s).
It might be helpful to a lot of people here for me to reiterate this. Volume can be exaggerated on news. Pretty much all the signals or potential signals today were working off new’s high volume and nothing else. I waited for further, non-news confirmations and they didn’t come. It just wasn’t good enough to say SM is actively doing xyz.
XAU/USD 1M chart taken a minute ago, can anyone chime in on the validity of this?
i don´t know how to use VSA on M1 that´s why i can´t say anything to this. usually we / I take H1(H4) and M5 (M15)…
Yeah I’ll have to agree with tse13, we usually don’t trade off the 1 Min. You have the right idea though, that there was an imbalance of demand at the lower prices vs. supply at the high prices which caused price to rally.
Well I finally did my BabyPips Honorary Member interview! 
Coming soon… The Honorary Members’ Club
I was thinking about providing a mug shot but I wouldn’t want to ruin the mystique. 
This is all you get…
Hmm, maybe I could do hand modeling.
Pete, how often do you hold on to trades for say 2-3 days?
I’ve seen that signs of weakness or strength can happen two days in a row, causing price to fall for a couple days. Does one just trade each day individually or only keep open positions in areas where prolonged movements seem likely? E/U for example is down on the week, and we saw weakness ever since Monday morning…
I predetermine a few targets when I get in the trade based on the setup. As the trade is playing out I look at the behavior, signs of strength/weakness especially at those levels (fib, s/r, pivots) and manage the trade based on how it’s playing out.
Maybe 1/3 of the time I’m holding longer than one day.
Hey Pete :D! I’ve already watched every single YouTube video you have man XD, and have become totally infatuated with VSA. I’ve been trying to research and develop my skills as a day trader/swing trader since around 15 and see this thread and your material (or I guess you would call it the work of Wycoff) as the “holy grail.” I’ve tried to research VSA on my own and had some questions.
I know that a high volume, wide-ranged candle and its successive candles are the basis of defining strength and weakness in the market, but is this signal as strong if per say that high volume candle had a wide range but closed near the open… I’ve read that in VSA the close of the high volume candle is pivotal, can you explain what the market is telling us depending on where that big mamba jama closes?
Also I’ve been trying to adapt your strategy to the 5 min. chart (without looking at the larger time frames) and was wondering if you thought this was foolish, I know that VSA applys to all time frames so I’ve kinda come up with this…
-Start the day off around 8 am and look at the previous action throughout the day to see if signs of strength/weakness are prevalent.
-Then with that knowledge I’ll take the smart moneys signs and apply it to my trading (ex. only take shorts if the market shows weakness and I can get a ND)
- I try to look at fibs and S/R as well but was wondering if you thought this approach on a smaller time frame was okay.
I’d like to drill down to a smaller time frame but the 1min. is hyped up as a crazy not-good for set ups kind of place.
Last Questions (D: sorry for the long post)
- How do you determine if a sign of strength (say a high V Bearish candle with a bullish reaction) has already played out on the charts, when signs of weakness start coming back (makes sense)?
- Do NO-D have to be off of a bullish candle? Do NO-S have to be of a bearish candle?
- What role does news play in your trading? Will you avoid a trade entirely because its near news? I saw news pan out just last week where the news reaction (the 5min. candle on the news event resulted in a bearish candle but bullish reaction (strength) and then the next successive news event, about 30 min. later created a No - S, another sign of strength) do you think these signs are appropriate to trade off or just a trap?
- I take yours
Short A/U
supply followed by ND on H1
entry off of M5, weakness in the background. ND followed by upthrust and entry green line
Wow …dat was aggressive entry …d safer 1 was d push tru and ND confirmation entry…wen u entered d 1hr candle av not confirmed if its was strenght or weakness coming in…nxt stay patient.even G/U gave same entry now.
the upthrust after the ND gave me the confidence to take the trade, tnx for the headsup on G/U currently short that