Hey. I’ve seen you guys shorting the Dollar on the AU and GU. Nice trades, I decided not to trade today due to Labor Day but I’m still actively analyzing the charts. How does this setup look:
Highest Volume of the day on a down bar. The reaction bar was a near doji with the bar after that confirming the 3 Bar pattern “morning star”. It rallied up giving us the AR, which a break should give us a long entry. You guys have successful Dollar shorts which leaves me wondering what this means, how this setup could be happening at the same time as dollar weakness.
Great Trade, that ran really fast lol. Those are the type of trades I’m trying to master. The ones that don’t give the exact setup, but play out regardless.
I’ve noticed that during the opening of the Tokyo session lately, Yen pairs have been really moving. Last night, all the major moves were before the open of London. Strange to me.
Good Morning guys. Please let me know if this trade was good or not. I’m really aiming for a win streak. First trade.
I believe supply entered the market on the high volume. It was also a false break of yesterday’s high. Price fell down to a level where demand appeared. I simply waited for that level to break to enter short. Cross of the EMA’s wasn’t my trigger but another confluence point. Also a push back below a .50 Fib I drew from the 4HR swing high to swing low.
The 1HR AU shows the highest VOL as supply entering the market. This chart easily shows a short setup could be forming.
But the 5 Min shows a different picture to me, I’m looking to enter short but maybe on a high VOL double top.
EDIT: Yeah tse, I am still in with full position. I saw price stall and considered taking off half position but vol didn’t suggest so. It’s retracing now but I’m committed to letting my winners run and only exiting when price tells me to.
It looks pretty alright to me, but I do wonder what was your thoughts on the S/L being placed there? Was it to attain a good enough R:R ratio? Normally, a S/L is placed at a point where you think the trade probability breaks down. Personally, I would have looked more towards maybe 5 pips above the prior highs, but that would have dropped the R:R right off
In all honesty, that’s pretty much why. The stop above the high would have made the trade not worth while. I did however noticed a sort of resistance level at .5578, a level where I thought supply was keeping the sell pressure on vs. the demand of the AR.
After d break tru and test confirmation …d went abt 2pips in my favour and I notice strenght coming in and pushing it back to d AR …so I drew my fib and place my stop above d 50-61 knwing if it gets dere and dnt turn back its a bad trade.experience taught me dat…lol…lost dis 1.
Sorry for the late response. I’ll try to run off some answers.
A candle closing at the open is a strong signal. So if you have high volume wide up that closes near the open it is a stronger sign of weakness than if it closed near or at the high.
By ignoring larger TFs you are simply not utilizing good info about probability. Not sure why you would want to do that.
Questions 1 and 2 the answer is yes to both. More info about moves “playing out” or not can be gained from 1hr, so I think u should use it.
News, it’s bit of a lengthy answer. I don’t look at numbers at release, I ignore them. I look at the reaction to the news move, not trading right on the release. Today I went long e/u off the news trap down and already hit first target. That attracted buyers accumulating off the lows. e/u, g/u. Reaction to new prices is more telling then anything else on news. If the news moves matches the background positioning it could be time for that move to play out.
Yes we were sitting in the same SM coach! I am attaching how I managed it. The retracement didn´t hit my BE this time, but it ussually does. Anyway I prefer PT 1 with BE on firsth resistance even if it is minor one. I can´t imagine run Pete´s strategy without Partial Close expert advisor.
I’ll be sure to keep a very close eye on this AU short. It’s been rallying all morning but has stalled for past couple hours, and with the news release has began to show some weakness. Found a ND and took my short. Another confirmation was a cross of EMA’s during the writing of this post.
Can u pls closed the trade and watch or go read something …the trade u took is a very strong trend dat av not shown weakness and will still ride up …even from ur trade now u can see it as given u an opportunity to exit agn …check the 13:00 candle in 5mins …dere is no weakness in this trade.only trying to hlp u save ur money …lol
lol that was my mistake, I already closed out for a small small win. Today hasn’t shown much of anything so far in terms of trading with SM.
EDIT: Well the Yen pairs might give an opportunity.
EDIT: Found One. Highest VOL of day on down move with inside close. Allowed for the AR to form and then long taken at the push thru, close at or near the high. It was on high VOL but I’ll keep an eye on this.
Yh …I tink dis E/J av got my eyes on it since …I tink its on Distribution so I did not take dat trade …I prefer selling it and now its looking abit gud to me …still waiting …can’t buy it but hoping to sell.
i am also watching this… this pair is (im my opinion too) in distribution since a few days but in a large range ~50pips… i thought about trading this range in vsa- style… is this a valid strategy? also waiting for a nice downmove there
you still in?
