Hey Tse, unfortunately I didn’t take any trades around the FOMC yesterday, I did take a few shorter M5/M15 time frame trades today based on confirmed NS and ND signals together with confluence of bearish divergence and oversold/overbought readings. :53:
Wat is trying to tell u is dat …we dnt talk abt oversold or overbought or divergence in VSA …so ur trades are not really with vsa principles…hope u understand @jillion.
good morning guys 
such a silence in here … well, i will do something against it. i will try to make an analysis on the E/U and look forward to your opinions.
DAILY:
- break through an important resistance level and close above it --> looks bullish
H4: - E/U was in up channel but price crossed (thanks to FOMC) the upper side which could possibly lead to a retracement back in the channel or a test of the upper side of the channel --> looks bearish
H1: - highest volume since mid of july on hourly base with a wide spread up bar. so you see a lot looks like a following retracement now BUT i looked at the trading range after the ultra high volume closely
M15: - and what we see looks for me like reaccumalation. i will show my reasons for it:
- every downmove in the trading range has a higher volume in comparison to the upmoves
- there is a fake break out / spring on the down side of the TR
expectations:
- i would not be suprised to see a down gap when asia opens to hunt the stop losses of traders(buyers) who are still in it and to keep sellers in the market
i also tried a new tool for me. i guess everybody knows this but for me it is new
i used the fibonacci expansion and layed it over the last up move in daily chart. surprisingly the level of the FE 100.0 (FibExp) is exactly the length of the last upmove. i highlighted it with the blue line which i took from this upmove. so i could imagine future prices in the area of 1.38xx.
[I] – sorry atm i am too dumb to upload a useful picture --[/I]
here is a link instead: http://s14.directupload.net/images/130922/bnzwhh2b.jpg
finally these were just my thoughts to E/U. we all know that price can behave in strange ways but i wanted to try myself in forecast and look forward to your opinions and critics! this is no advise for an investment just some beginner thoughts!!
kind regards and nice start in the week!
edit: now when i think about i never traded when in germany was election… so i don´t have a clue how the impacts of the result to E/U can be?! maybe an experienced trader can say something to this
edit2: just discovered another nice confluence… if you watch the WEEKLY chart you can see that the 61.8fib from last big top (may 2011) is exactly where you can find the 100.00fib expansion level…
Last week was tough, school really laid it on me. Plus FOMC made it all the more reason to let things settle in before I entered again.
I agree with your analysis TSE. A pullback is what I’m looking for too.
Maybe a pullback into the .50 - .618 fib from last week’s High/Low confluence point with the trendline you mentioned.
A normal up move like this more would of caused me to say this was somewhat bearish because there hasn’t been great follow through but I’d still take a long a pullback. We are also approaching the Yearly high dating back to Feb 1st.
Any trades today guys? I went long E/U around US open but closed around BE after weakness on news. Then I went long a/u off the downside fake break, followed by NS. That hit the first fib target and hopefully will run for more.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
Took some loss from G/U and got some from long from E/j …hoping tomorow will be better.
i took U/J long. was a nice one with everything you need… strength in the background, double bottom, fake break, NS, push through, test, confirmation and profit… and the best–> it was on demo :´(
I’ve been lurking around these parts for the better part of 3 months… can be even more. Anyhow, after reading most of Pete’s 2 threads and MTM twice, (It still boggles me, will need to read a few more times!) I’ve attempted a half baked analysis of a chart. Maybe I’m on the right track…
i. Price met buyers at the SR level, rallied a bit on decreasing volume.
ii. Pinbar, high volume, and bullish reaction…Stopping volume? Entire session volume B noticeably higher than previous session A.
iii. Less volume (Interest from pros) at higher prices…Accumulation?
iv.Selling climax on very high volume, or (test on high volume) of an area where buyers are known to be…
v.No supply bar? Volume is lower than the previous 2 bars and price doesn’t close below…is this a potential entry or the better entry is a few candles after? (Not exactly lowest spread around, but closes in lower half of candle…)
- Previous SR levels, potential target areas. Take partial profit and let the rest run…
- Same as above… as price struggles to cross above… move SL to line SR 1??
Feel free to correct as necessary…
yes springger this was the one i was talking about.thank you for the analysis. there is nothing one have to correct but i want to try to give you an answer on the “entry-question”.
at first you have to decide how agressive you want to be. in this case you have at least about 4 types of entry
you can go long on the very first confirmed NS after confirmed SV - very agressive
you can go long after push through AR - agressive
you can go long after push through and confirmation - i guess medium risk
you can go long on NS after push through and confirmation - conservative
additionally when you read MTM i think there is written that your first entry is/should be immediately after the fake break out. you see there are a lot of entry types and and there is no perfect entry. just go in the charts and try what fits for you the best.
when i started i took every NS/ND after SV… lol … now i am getting old and become more conservative
greetings
Well, long A/U again. I seem to be making a habit of this. Sometimes I’m hitting only small targets but I almost never lose on this pair. Really it’s since that double bottom on daily with strong buying I’ve been hunting longs.
I’m still working my way through these threads to fully grasp VSA, but do you mind explaining why you are still looking for longs while the H1 TF is showing a pretty clear downtrend? Do you primarily look at D1 for the overall picture and then utilize M15/M5 for entries or do you still consider other timeframes such as H1?
After going back and looking at it a bit further, I do notice that the highs of the downtrend have not really been dictated by smart money as the volume is typically weak. Would this be considered “re-accumulation” right now, (hence the reason for hunting longs…haha)?
Thanks in advance!
I’d imagine A/U taking another leg up in the near future. From the Daily POV, you can see there’s strength in this uptrend. Nothing can rise indefinitely so pullbacks will occur. But wouldn’t you rather be looking for that next swing long vs. these minor shorts?
Not to sound hypocritical, I was eyeing a short on the A/U but decided against it.
Does anyone use the USD/CHF as a mirror image of the USD Index? I read that its feasible to do so somewhere and have seen quite a nice correlation so far.
TSE thanks for the reply. Pete, thanks for keeping an eye out.
Ok guys and gal (Jillion), just a quick peep at the charts before bedtime, and this is what I saw. However, with the HTF’s showing an uptrend, going long would be the better choice. The charts show how and why. Again, as I’m now learning, I’m more leaning towards the high probability and conservative trades, instead of trying to get in on every twist of the market.
Point out anything as you see fit.
I wish all trades worked this well. On EURJPY. Up 50 pips but I scaled out along the way. Any criticism?
Hey guys, I took a loss today on E/U long. I’m just keeping it realz.
Ever since the lead up to FOMC tapering decision I’m not liking the action. So, 2 small wins on a/u longs and 1 loss today was my week to put me slightly in the red. To me, rule number 1 is protect the capital. This is where traders get hurt. I will be going small risk or simply not taking trades until I see the usual, high probability situations that I like.
It’s frustrating but not nearly as much as it used to be, knowing this is part of trading and good conditions always return. It’s good to accept the things you can’t change. It’s actually freeing.
I see the Euro has broken its nice uptrend dating back to September 6th. I’m not sure at all where the bias is though.
A recent seminar I attended suggested that Gaps, usually after weekends, are simply where the opposing force decides to show its hand or something of that matter. Maybe sellers didn’t feel capable of stopping the demand of FOMC until around .3520, a previous level that price pivoted at once before.
New to VSA, thought I’d share a nice find and have any mistakes pointed out.
AUD/USD Long Set up showing stopping volume and a re-test on low volume. Possibility of move continuing.
Anything else I missed?
Cheers.
Guys, a bit quiet in here. I’m still learning, and digesting the VSA concept.
Looking at the chart below, USDCHF M15, I see a bit of consolidation. Looking at the bigger picture, and from a very basic breakdown, it appears that price will be heading south further. The period of consolidation appears to be re-distribution. The ideal entry would be a retest of the support line from the below, or a No Demand bar. Of course, I can be wrong, and price shoots upwards. In that case, I’m sitting on my hands and looking for the next trade…
hey you guys,
- rlee, i think this is a nice onebut don´t forget to use H1 to see the bigger picture
2)springger, the same maybe you use it but in H1 you see it better. this is no redistribution. this looks more the way like accumulation. why?
-highest vol of the day in H1 on wide spread high vol down candle plus bullish reaction
- if you zoom in to M15 you can alway see high vol on down candles -> keep in mind: strength always shows on down candles!
- always keep on asking…
greetings
edit: this is just my personal opinion. learning this stuff since few weeks so handle my words with care