jalapenoninja
A few ways to skin this I think… price moving in a channel, a climactic breakout above, also (sort of) on the 5th swing, so expecting the trend to end here. I think it’s stopping volume, as the bearish rejection is equal to the spread of the bullish move.
Then a nice bit of weakness repeated at the same price at the stopping volume/candle… but much easier in hindsight 
(I’m not too sure about those last two ND candles you’ve marked, the volume isn’t lower 3 in a row?)
I had one aims: to show that the ND alone was not enough to enter.
Greetings, i believe what you’ve marked as re-distribution is a sort of a hidden up-thrust as soon as the price close back to the range. My understanding of a re-distribution is that it appears after the mark-down, when the price retraces the initial move caused by the high volume. But i guess it’s just semantics if you know what you’re looking at 
Also try looking at volume in the zone printed by profile indicator. In my opinion it helps filtering out bad trades caused by single volume spike. Should be logical when we take scale orders into consideration.
Good job Pete, everything is right! good luck!
On Balance Volume (OBV)
Does anyone use this for spotting market structure?
Ie what phase were in 1234
Hey Guys,
Just a quick clarification here. It may be a bit ‘nit-picky’ but I actually think it could help you in how you’re thinking about the larger time frame (H1) and reading the story line. For me, instead of looking at the chart and marking it up with accumulation (A) or distribution (D), I tend to mark it up with signs of strength (SOS) or signs of weakness (SOW). When I think to myself A or D, I am thinking a consistent storyline that is playing out in the background, and feel more confident price will then react to that storyline i.e. markup if A has occurred or markdown if D has occurred.
I think you’ll agree that if you read the story line in this picture, its very mixed. There is buying and selling going on. Given that, it may help you to think of the points where you have identified A as simply SOS and areas you have identified as D as SOW. The reason for this is that we are trying to identify a consistent story line to trade from. We want to see pretty consistent SOS or SOW, which we can then call A or D. If we have a lot of both, as in this picture, we have a pretty mixed background and I personally am not looking to place a trade after a very mixed background.
We want to identify areas where we’ve seen a clear action; A or D. Once we identify this consistent string of events we can be fairly certain its created an imbalance between supply and demand, and then we look for entry signals.
The good news is you are clearly identifying SOSs and SOWs which is half that battle. Good job!
I hope this helps.
Thanks
Ryan
Hey Guys,
Just a quick clarification here. It may be a bit ‘nit-picky’ but I actually think it could help you in how you’re thinking about the larger time frame (H1) and reading the story line. For me, instead of looking at the chart and marking it up with accumulation (A) or distribution (D), I tend to mark it up with signs of strength (SOS) or signs of weakness (SOW). When I think to myself A or D, I am thinking a consistent storyline that is playing out in the background, and feel more confident price will then react to that storyline i.e. markup if A has occurred or markdown if D has occurred.
I think you’ll agree that if you read the story line in this picture, its very mixed. There is buying and selling going on. Given that, it may help you to think of the points where you have identified A as simply SOS and areas you have identified as D as SOW. The reason for this is that we are trying to identify a consistent story line to trade from. We want to see pretty consistent SOS or SOW, which we can then call A or D. If we have a lot of both, as in this picture, we have a pretty mixed background and I personally am not looking to place a trade after a very mixed background.
We want to identify areas where we’ve seen a clear action; A or D. Once we identify this consistent string of events we can be fairly certain its created an imbalance between supply and demand, and then we look for entry signals.
The good news is you are clearly identifying SOSs and SOWs which is half that battle. Good job!
I hope this helps.
Thanks
Ryan
Hello,
All markets in all timeframes can be ‘read’ using VSA. I’m not sure what EBS is, but if you’re referring to the Yen, Dollar, and Euro being trade on Futures that is true, however I believe the statistic I heard is that futures currency trading only accounts for 30% of the total currency trading, the rest is spot FX.
Volume information in FX, which is actually tick activity, can be different between brokers. Get yourself an IBFX demo (or live trade) account. That is what 90% of people on this thread use so it will help you be consistent with what everyone else is looking at.
As for finding a VSA setup, keep looking, there are plenty 
Ryan
While it may be possible to trade VSA on only 1 timeframe it is not recommended. Your risk increases dramatically when you are trading against the current phase. In FX the current phase is most accurately identified on the H1 so it is highly advisable to establish the phase on there, and then use the M5 for entry that is consistent and not counter to that phase.
Hey Scyther,
Great analysis! It looks like you are doing a nice job following the storyline of SM. The only small suggestion I would make is that for this style of trading, using the monthly for target levels is a bit of a stretch. Sooooo much can happen between now and then. I personally use the Monthly and Weekly more for major Support and Resistance levels than anything else. For target levels I typically use the H1, H4, and occasionally the Daily.
Hope this helps.
Thanks,
Ryan
Jalapeno,
This looks pretty darn good! Nice analysis. If I understand correctly you looked for a short at the top of the range which is very good from a R:R perspective, but slightly aggressive. Still valid in my opinion though. If you wanted to be more conservative, you could wait for price to break through the support area of that range, then come back up to retest that level and get in on a ND.
Looks like you’re on the right track.
Thanks,
Ryan
Good analysis guys. The one correction is that the first ND Jalepeno suggests is not valid as the next bar closes above it. What does this mean? It means there was still demand there. The second ND Jalapeno suggested is technically valid and gets confirmed for entry three bars later.
Not that this is a right or wrong issue, but in this case I do like Cica’s very conservative entry for 1 particular reason. There was a pretty decent SOS that showed up at the bottom of the automatic rally setup. The volume is higher on this bar and it stopped price for 15 bars. That’s pretty significant.
So, in this case, waiting for that wider spread bearish bar to clear this zone, and then even waiting for that next close below that candle, made for a nice, conservative entry.
Well played!
NO, OBV doesn’t really work with VSA. There may be other uses for it; I know I’ve seen people looking for divergences with it, but as far as VSA its really no use.
The only thing I would ever add to my volume ‘indicator’ is the line that draws the average across the volume histogram. I believe its called a volume MA?? This could be used to spot higher than average volume, but this task is done pretty easily with the human eye.
Thanks,
Ryan
Hey Ryan,
Thanks for the wrap-up of the last few posts. I’m still trying to iron out a few ‘what-ifs’ for me wrt No Demand and No Supply VSA… Do you use the Murray Math Support & Resistance that plots automatically or do you use your own manual S&R lines for TPs?
I did not make this picture. I can not find the source. Maybe that is the source of PippDaddy.
In any case clearly shows Daddy’s proposal.
Hey Jalapeno,
Ya, sorry I wasn’t able to reply to some of those sooner; it was a busy week for me. Anyway, no I don’t use Murray Math. I actually don’t use Pivot Points either. Neither of them seem to hold up all that often, from my perspective. I use all manual S/R areas that I draw on fresh every morning. I start with the monthly, then weekly, daily, H4, H1 and M5. It sounds like a lot, but if you are really only looking at MAJOR S/R areas, it shouldn’t take more than a minute for this task. These areas seem to me respected way more than any precalculated levels, and for obvious reasons; they are places where SM has been involved.
If you have any questions about ND or NS please post, otherwise check out Pete’s ND/NS video; its awesome!
Thanks,
Ryan
Hey Cica,
I’m not sure where this chart came from, but it’s not mine. Nonetheless, you are correct, it just show some recent ideas we talked about. Mainly this: when I look at this chart, a few things jump out at me:
In other words, you don’t really need to go through a chart, bar by bar by bar, contrary to what Gavin and his posse might tell you. So, if it were morning time, and I was just pulling up my charts, here would be my first reaction to this chart:
It looks like price just came from a downtrend, then it hits climactic volume. What happens next? Price moved up! Then it stalled, then it pulled back. I look at the volume. Low demand near the top so this was NOT the end of this move up. Price pulled back, then as it hit the bottom of the pullback, volume increases, and what happens next? Price moved up! It keeps going up until it hits what looks like climactic volume, and price can’t advance any further. That’s all I need to know: downtrend -> climactive action -> uptrend -> pullback -> price continues up -> climactic action. Once you get used to it, should only take you a minute or two to pick up on the only points you need to see. If you went through this chart bar by agonizing bar, however, it would take a half hour, confuse the hell out of you, and make matters way more convoluted. Sometimes less is more!
So, where does price go from here? We don’t know; no retail traders KNOW with 100%. But what we do know is that we have no reason to look for long positions right now, and we should have a short bias. See what price and volume does from here, look for an entry.
Thanks,
Ryan
I think the forum’s got a few active trades recently? What is everyone’s trading session? I’m also thinking that if we all switched to focusing on a similar few pairs and posting those trades, it’d be better on our learning curves?
Myself, gbp/jpy, aud/jpy, gbp/usd & eur/usd. London Session & NY Open. Interested to see what you guys are up to (Cica, Ryan, FoxontheRun & Co.)?
If there’s a common currency pair then I’ll focus more on that one.
