Been looking at Petefaders week in review video. Great incite on VSA. Do you only look for no supply in an uptrend and no demand in a down trend or does it matter whether a no demand or no supply is in either trend up or down.
Interesting, as I notice on the last chart the last high volume on the down bar shows less orders than the previous bar which is higher in price action but shows even more orders with almost the same volume.
Typically that is the case, but [I]most[/I] important is the VSA background strength/wekaness for direction.
Nice, thanks. Although Futures Volume is a relatively small portion of the entire FX market, itâs nice to see âproofâ that SM operates how we know them to. Huge selling on big up bars etc.
Even if you have that it can take days before it turns and in between the retest might not even work because of news.
Outside of possible trades, how do fellow VSA traders view my analysis?
I want to make sure Iâm not missing anything, jumping to conclusions, or following money flows incorrectly.
Thanks in advance
[QUOTE=âUpcomerFX;618302â]Outside of possible trades, how do fellow VSA traders view my analysis? I want to make sure Iâm not missing anything, jumping to conclusions, or following money flows incorrectly. Thanks in advance <img src=â301 Moved Permanentlyâ/>[/QUOTE]
Iâm curious. This money flow equation you are referring to can you post it? I am not sure how many pages to go back to find it :(. Iâm under the impression 1 unit of volume in forex represents 100,000 dollars of base currency at the current price the volume was posted. Idk if you would know the answer or not to this but does this sound about right to you? Standard trading size in forex is 1 lot and one lot is 100,000 units. Correct me if I am wrong?
Iâm under the impression you think EU will long?
By money flows, I meant Smart Money (SM). SM has the ability to cause substantial changes in the markets, and through the VSA methodology, we aim to align ourselves with their decisions. Pete described it as the small fish that scale the underbellies of blue whales. Just an analogy. I believe youâre right about the lot sizes.
Good Question, EU long does seem to be my bias only due the highest VOL of the week being somewhat bullish. However, I was hoping to ask Pete something about this topic. Should the bias for the following day/week be based on what most recently happened the day prior? Or be based on the overall trend of the past week? If EU continued to fall I wouldnât be surprised as itâs fallen all week, but the stopping VOL was relatively large.
[QUOTE=âUpcomerFX;618306â] By money flows, I meant Smart Money (SM). SM has the ability to cause substantial changes in the markets, and through the VSA methodology, we aim to align ourselves with their decisions. Pete described it as the small fish that scale the underbellies of blue whales. Just an analogy. I believe youâre right about the lot sizes. Good Question, EU long does seem to be my bias only due the highest VOL of the week being somewhat bullish. However, I was hoping to ask Pete something about this topic. Should the bias for the following day/week be based on what most recently happened the day prior? Or be based on the overall trend of the past week? If EU continued to fall I wouldnât be surprised as itâs fallen all week, but the stopping VOL was relatively large.[/QUOTE]
Thatâs a pretty slick analogy! Gotta love it. I think how far back you look is how far forward you should look. Just an opinion of course. Personally I look at only the previous day to predict the current day (mathematically of course). I havenât moved to weeks or months yet, but based on the success I have had thus far with the day, would do the same for weeks and months. 1 week to predict 1 week and 1 month to predict 1 month. You guys are trying to follow smart money? Sounds legit. I try to predict what smart money is going to do before it even does it. So I guess you could say I lead, smart money follows if I do it correctly. Focusing on volume to make your trades? Sounds like we have a lot in common xD. The problem with just looking at the volume figures they give you (mmâs or data provider) is itâs non canceled. Meaning itâs showing all activity buy and short, not net activity (money that directly impacted the market and is reflected in price). Which is why I was asking about that equation. Maybe you guys have one better than the one I use currently? Someone told me mine is outdated or something 
idk.
Hello everyone
I would like to share with my analyse about EURUSD. My view is bullish. I know that this thread is NOT about EW but I think that chart is telling whole story.
Market is finishing correction ABC (ultimate target bottom of 4 wave). Next week should bring more ACCUMULATIONâŚ
Regards
[QUOTE=âd-pip;618384â] On units of volume, you are wrong. The volume we see in our retail platforms is âtic volumeâ not 100,000 units of base currency.[/QUOTE] Good to know. I need to determine a number then. Do to know the integer value of tick volume in money?
I donât actually use the volume they give us. I calculate the real net volume. (1/opening price)*(movement in pips for the timeframe I am calculating the volume for). But I multiply the end result by 100,000 to get the monetary value. So if I donât know what one unit of volume represents⌠the money I calculate is incorrect. The money isnât extremely important but I do use it and if possible I would prefer it to be exact if possible.
[QUOTE=âd-pip;618390â] There is no âmonetary valueâ to a tic from a retail FX broker. Hereâs a quote from CMSFXâs web site that explains it better than I can. âTick Volume is different from the regular volume measurement in equities. In equities, each share traded is counted and thus 100 shares will equal a volume of 100. In the forex market, however, trading is decentralized and it is impossible to keep track of all the amounts and sizes of contracts in a given day. As an alternative, tick volume is measured in number of tick changes. The theory is that price movements occur in relation to trading activity and therefore Tick Volume can provide insight into the intensity of a given price movement.â[/QUOTE]
Very nice. So Iâm still golden . I appreciate your response and the time it took to find it. Each tick is .1 pips movement right?
[QUOTE=âd-pip;618400â] No, a tic equals a price change. A price gap from 1.3720 to 1.3743 = 1 tic. Also a price movement from 1.37201 to 1.37202 = 1 tic. Google around and do some of your own research, this thread might not be the appropriate place to be asking first grade questions on the structure of the FX market.[/QUOTE]
Thanks again for the help. I donât understand why you can actually be nice one minute than a complete hatian the next. And I thought I was moody when I didnât smoke cigs, damn. I have googled my friend. Google is helpful IF you have the right keywords which apparently I havenât. If itâs so elementary quit wasting your time helping me and let someone else do so. Thanks.
I followed your conversation with d-pip about tick VOL vs. actual VOL. This topic has been widely debated not only in this forum, but on other websites that provided experimental data supporting the notion that tick VOL can be somewhat related to actual VOL. As to the degree to how one uses this tick data to interpret buying vs. selling is what VSA is about. Iâd watch Peteâs YouTube videos in which he analyzes the market with VOL, which is actually the tick VOL, to get a better understanding of how weâre able to differentiate between bullish and bearish activity.
I understand how you can use one day to forecast one day ahead. On the chart I posted, the highest VOL of one day predicted what happened the next day.
Monday, Bullish VOL and Tuesday had minor increase.
Tuesday, Bearish VOL and Wednesday had a decrease.
Wed, Bearish VOL and Thurs had a decrease and so onâŚ
Iâm not sure of the equation you speak of. Pete hasnât brought it up, or I must have missed it. And Iâve read articles and PDFs of Wyckoffâs work and havenât come across any equations either. If you do, however, find equations feel free to post them so I can check them out. Thanks
[QUOTE=âUpcomerFX;618446â] I followed your conversation with d-pip about tick VOL vs. actual VOL. This topic has been widely debated not only in this forum, but on other websites that provided experimental data supporting the notion that tick VOL can be somewhat related to actual VOL. As to the degree to how one uses this tick data to interpret buying vs. selling is what VSA is about. Iâd watch Peteâs YouTube videos in which he analyzes the market with VOL, which is actually the tick VOL, to get a better understanding of how weâre able to differentiate between bullish and bearish activity. I understand how you can use one day to forecast one day ahead. On the chart I posted, the highest VOL of one day predicted what happened the next day. Monday, Bullish VOL and Tuesday had minor increase. Tuesday, Bearish VOL and Wednesday had a decrease. Wed, Bearish VOL and Thurs had a decrease and so on⌠Iâm not sure of the equation you speak of. Pete hasnât brought it up, or I must have missed it. And Iâve read articles and PDFs of Wyckoffâs work and havenât come across any equations either. If you do, however, find equations feel free to post them so I can check them out. Thanks[/QUOTE]
Very nice! The equation I posted above would be part of my graduate school thesis if I ever went to graduate school lol (not very likely at this point, I prefer self study). I actually stumbled across it on my own through extensive testing while watching price move on an EN 5 second chart. I watched each candle I tested form⌠If there where no highs or lows during that 5 seconds and price moved only in one direction and didnât reverse I took the volume and divided it by the movement of that 5 seconds (or the other way around⌠Itâs been a while sorry). My goal was to figure out exactly how much tick volume it took to move price a single pip. Somehow I came up with that inverse price multiplied by movement of that timeframe to get the real net volume necessary to move the market. I saw that V = (1/P)*M was for the most part giving me pretty much the same result as dividing the movement of that 5 seconds by the tick volume given (or visa versa itâs been a while, sorry about that)⌠Hence I confirmed the legitimacy of the equation and it has been the building block of my entire system since.
Much like you guys, at first before my major breakthrough, I was analyzing just the tick volume itself and attempting to figure out the correlation it had to movement in price. After graphing tick volume over time compared to movement over time I noticed the distinct correlation. This led me to discover the equation I posted In the preceding paragraph to this (not even sure how I figured the equation out to be honest⌠One day it just hit me⌠I consider it a gift from God).
Someone in these forums told me the equation I just posted above banks use or used to use idk. After hearing that I feel confident it has real world value. Like I said this is just a building block to where I am today, but without it, I would never have gotten even a centimeter as close to how far I really have come. I tested 1/opening price, 1/closing price, 1/high, and 1/low, but for whatever reason I stick to 1/opening price. I justify this because I like to use the starting price to determine the real net volume for the timeframe I am determining it for. The other prices are slightly more or less but to the 100th or thousandth decimal place so end result is pretty much the same regardless.
If you use this equation I posted above and compare it to the tick volume given by your broker, you will notice it is always less than the tick volume your broker gives you. More evidence of its validity... Net is always less than total volume and should always be so. After all you are trying to eliminate the volume that cancels itself out. If you want to see how far I really have come check out my trade journal called "Leg0nd's system 13" in the trade journal section. Go to page 14 and you will see exactly what I do with this equation and how I use it to predict the day before it happens (to pretty good success so far :) ). Good looks for following this post. I love intelligent conversation when it come to FX.Intelligent conversations propel society forward lol.
OK I followed steps 1-4 from your thread and applied it to a bar on the chart I posted here. Mondayâs Big Green candle, which is indicated with a green circle at the low. I believe step 4 is meant to figure out what % the wicks are of the entire candle, which came out to a little above 50%. But I didnât continue forward because you mentioned you do this with every 1 minute candle, which might be comparable to the 24 1HR bars in a day. Interesting to say the least.
With your particular take on trading with VOL, do you account for any technical setups? Or is it just âcrunch the numbers, take the highest integer pair, and get in the second the next trading day is underway?â
[QUOTE=âUpcomerFX;618455â] Intelligent conversations propel society forward lol. OK I followed steps 1-4 from your thread and applied it to a bar on the chart I posted here. Mondayâs Big Green candle, which is indicated with a green circle at the low. I believe step 4 is meant to figure out what % the wicks are of the entire candle, which came out to a little above 50%. But I didnât continue forward because you mentioned you do this with every 1 minute candle, which might be comparable to the 24 1HR bars in a day. Interesting to say the least. With your particular take on trading with VOL, do you account for any technical setups? Or is it just âcrunch the numbers, take the highest integer pair, and get in the second the next trading day is underway?â[/QUOTE]
Very nice! You actually attempted to apply my concept to see what it really means. Kudos!
Please post the pic? Wasnât in your last post? You are right about step 4. The goal is to figure out what percentage of the market is extreme (in my theoretical monetary form). I get the directional decision solely from the 1m timeframe (all 1440 mins from previous day are summed up⌠Just the extreme percentage⌠SUMb and SUMs to get my daily alpha value).
The 24 one hr sheet I have is only used for drawdown and is also a very good indicator on how far the particular pair tested should move paired with the 1m. What I typically search for each night is an integer sum I call alpha (SUMb + SUMs = alpha) of around 20-30 or so on the 1m and less than absolute value 2 is preferable on the 1hr sheet.
If calculated correctly (will need to test several days to see this) you will notice SUMb and SUMs can be positive or negative integer values.
Sometimes I trade a value of 10 or less on the 1hr depending on if it is positive of negative. If I pick the correct pair to trade, opening price is the goal for entry⌠If not a few pips above or below it if I do not get al the data compiled in time is just fine (usually happens because I have to pull several pairs⌠The particular pattern I trade obviously doesnât happen every day). Reason for this is because assuming my analysis is correct⌠I shouldnât have much drawdown from entry and because I have to go to sleep after I enter :(. I live in the eastern time zone and am too tired to wait for âperfect entry.â
The highest integer value point you made is worth a look into if you have the time. I noticed several times it can predicts large moves in the market, but I am working in perfecting one pattern at a time before determining the other good patterns to take.
Oh and to answer your question. Correct. I do not use any technical setups or other indicators to make my trading decision. However, I did notice my EJ trade I took Friday was beautiful!!! It was at a nice support level in which it hovered at for several hours prior to entry. Also a very likely reason it had low drawdown. My stats called that before the day even happened⌠Gotta love math!
The Green Candle I noted on the chart below. Once again, I canât come to the conclusion for the entire day as thatâs too many 1 min bars to compile lol. But OK, I see the gist of your trading approach and I must admit, the math component does indeed provide to you the trades that have the highest probability to go in your favor. I was curious about where you were going with your posts over the past couple days, wondering why there wasnât any VSA aspects you spoke of. But in general, you do see VOL as a tool that provides you an edge, which is what weâre all seeking.
I might come to a greater mathematical epiphany in my future, as I sort of use math now. Iâve taken up Harmonics, which use a plethora of %'s of swings to produce levels where price either breaks or hold. With that alone, however, I wasnât satisfied. I was hoping to use VSA to read the market as if it were a book, allowing me to go along with the expected direction of price, than take Harmonic setups accordingly.
With your in-depth analysis of the mathematics of VOL, have you seen any reoccurring events that take place in your excel spreadsheet as well as on the charts? I would love to see how a more detailed look at VOL correlates to the techincals.
