Investors Sue 12 Banks, Allege Conspiracy to Rig Forex Markets - WSJ.com
ok, usually donât conspire lol. Even if they never did we would still have our setups based on consensus.
Started to post about how Interbank markets and how they work with Forex, but there are so many different ways of looking at this subject, even though it has to do with supply and demand, though I find myself scratching my head at times. Interbank markets, the big Banks kind of work together, compete I guess you could say, and they manipulate the markets for there gain. We fall prey to there tricks, but we can beat them with some good guesswork.
Few months ago, I also had my doubts about market manipulations until I read [I][B]Reminiscences of a Stock Operator[/B][/I] by Jesse Livermore. I started the book thinking that it was a story about a stock trader and that was it. I found a lot more. These guy was the Smart Money himself of the beginning of the 20 century. He explain in detail how he went from quotation-board boy in a stock- brokerage office to receive calls from stock owners who wanted to manipulate stock prices to distribute them. Concepts like ¨test for sellers¨, ¨distribution¨, and ¨corner¨ stock and commodities come afloat in a series of trades stories along his life.
I have no doubt now a days that this kind of syndicates trades exist and I don´t think the know each other but I believe they have inside information that allows them to have a better picture of the supply and demand of any kind of market and they know how to work the markets. I also have found videos of market makers interview in the web. So the answer is yes, smart money exists.
Mario
The SM communicates through tests .
In addition, I can only determine that whether the SM is there in the market , and if so, what he is doing . To do this, I use the shape and the volume of the candle .
In the chart above, the downmove starts with 1. candle (break out from range). High volume of the candle says for us, the MS explicitly opens shorts . Does not closes previous shorts and not opens new longs (no purchase). Therefore there is no wick .
2nd candle: Voljum is very high , spread is wide = SM opening shorts forceful . Pin on the bottom shows that there are already purchasing too. These purchasing are mainly closings of earlier shorts, but may be SM, who already open long.
3nd candle: down move continue, the high volume say for us, the SM there is on the market, and open shorts.
4nd candle: low upthrust usual . Very long lower pin, the volume is still high. The pin indicates that SM is closing previous shorts and opening more long .
But the volume not enough high ! This indicates that the part of SM is ready to some tricks. He couses believing that he will go up - but something is wrong !
5nd candle: The herd and a partial of the SM opening long. The tricky part of SM is waiting until the flock and the dumber SM takes the price high - and he opens shorts . This will create the long upper pin.
.
6nd candle: The herd opens long, takes up the price. SM do not purchases. Hence the low volume . At the high price the SM open to short .
7nd candle: Now SM explicitly closes the opened shorts , this will bring the price down . A flock confused, closes the longs. SM reap. .
There is also a simple definition that you can apply. When candle 3 CLOSED BELOW THE LOW of candle 2 it shows aggressive selling is still active as you said, and itâs not a proper sign of strength.
Itâs effort VS. result showing high activity leading to a lower close on the next candle. With that amount of selling still active it would be too soon to consider buying.
Thanks Pete!
Very good analysis Pete and Cica. Selling and buying pressure are good ways to determine where/and what SM is up to. I have found that to be a good way to understand VSA.
I think my brokers volume feed might not be so great. Anyone else use oanda?
Hello, I hope you find my post relevant (and apologies if it isnât!), its regarding these shadowy figures you all call Market markers, etc, who can move prices.
I had the misfortune of having lunch with a Goldman Sachs trader some months ago. He described how they would receive a order to sell a huge number of shares, they of course would get them at a good price and would then call their large clients and start off selling them the stock in batches of 50k and above, until they ran out of stock. I think about what he said and maybe it does sound like accumulation and then distribution as the price goes up. But he always stated that the markets were never being manipulated, that there were no syndicates and that price would ALWAYS return to its true market value based on [B]fundamentals[/B].
Maybe you could call these brokers marketmakers, specialists, etc, but maybe activities like i described above are the true meaning of these short term price moves? Could be i donât know. Iâm still learning the VSA logic.
Any way i hope this post provokes some discussion. Would be interested in others opinion.
great to get a few replies to my question.
often a question gets overlooked in forums. i guess its âfundamentalâ to how we trade (vsa etc)
im glad ive found vsa/pete as ive been the one who has meandered along the endless technical forex path until now. this stuff finally seems like real trading.
im in NZ so petes live trading will be difficult to stay awake for but its the next necessary step for me.
ive seen all the vids and are 90% comfortable with the new picture.
thnx to pete and all else here.
⌠pips to us all.
jim
[QUOTE=âjimnz;629812â]great to get a few replies to my question. often a question gets overlooked in forums. i guess its âfundamentalâ to how we trade (vsa etc) im glad ive found vsa/pete as ive been the one who has meandered along the endless technical forex path until now. this stuff finally seems like real trading. im in NZ so petes live trading will be difficult to stay awake for but its the next necessary step for me. ive seen all the vids and are 90% comfortable with the new picture. thnx to pete and all else here. ⌠pips to us all. jim[/QUOTE]
Wellcome (0300 am Panama City, PanamĂĄ)
Mario
One thing I kept in mind as I began to witness the power of VSA is this: whether youâre a conspiracy theorist, a believer in collusion, collaboration, or that SM trades fundamentals; VSA works. In other words, it doesnât really matter what the âtrue valueâ is or who âdeterminesâ that, or if SM is trading based on fundamentals or any other principles; VSA helps us see where the large chunks of money are moving, and when that movement causes a likely imbalance in the market. We then do our job which is to pounce on the opportunity, and try and move along with the flow of that money.
All that said, after studying VSA for a couple years now, I believe that the money is moving according to SMâs awareness of supply and demand and not to fundamentals. If you follow enough news events over time, this becomes pretty apparent. The news events are strictly a tool they use to capitalize on the imbalance that was previously present, or to setup the next imbalance. After studying this over time, I donât know if a true market value exists or not. I guess value is in the eye of the beholder 
Hey pipdaddy, I was wondering if you could do an analysis to figure out what went wrong with the NU trade I did my own and it looked pretty bullish up until that point in red I see as the only sign of weakness. Your experience would be much appreciated. Anyone else that would like to throw in some analysis are more than welcome of course.
Perfectly explained, my friend!
Hey SG,
Funny you should ask! I took a long on NU last Thursday evening. I actually held onto it over the weekend and then finally got stopped out on it Tuesday morning, I believe. The setup was there, the buying was there, but every mark up failed. Thus, I personally donât see anything wrong with taking a long, its just one of those instances where the selling that was there was hard to see, and then sellers stepped in when buyers couldnât sustain their accumulation any longer. I would say this setup usually works 75-80% of the time, and unfortunately, we just took it on one of the 20-25% of the times when it didnât work out.
Hi Daddy!
I draw a âNew Range SRâ (NRSR)I when there is a double bottom. Not descending to where the volume of second peak is low and the reaction candle (or AR) is does not get than NRSR. In this case, I predict side shoot.
Hey Guys,
I feel like I hit my next milestone of trading in the last couple weeks, which for me is one of my biggest. Interestingly enough, its not a financial milestone. I have finally accepted losses as a part of my trading, and am totally at peace with losing. Its easy for all of us to say when weâre new to trading that we know losing is part of it, and that weâre okay with it. Itâs another thing, at least for me, to actually be completely at peace with it, and accept it as part of the business we all run; our individual trading businesses. For me, a prerequisite to truly coming to grips with losing and having no anxiety about it is:
- You have to truly believe in the way that you trade and ONLY take the trades that coincide with the way that you interpret the market
- Because you truly believe in the way that you trade, you have to become 100% confident that your losses are isolated incidences. You know that you are not a losing trader. You will not continue to lose if you keep trading according to your (correct) view of the market. If you are disciplined, you will never blow your account, you will be back in the green before you know it.
I post this only because I hope it can help others reach this milestone quicker. Because, once you reach this step, I truly believe that a whole new door opens for you. You trade with more confidence, which helps you think quicker and react quicker, because you know you understand the market and are trading a successful method. If you lose, it is no big deal; youâre just one trade closer to a win nowâŚ
Good trading everyone!