Hi VSA’ers, I’m getting back into this method, have come full-circle with this past few weeks being some of my best using Pete’s VSA on the 1HR TF.
Here’s my take on AU from this week, which I’m short from the fake break-out. The Yen is also heading North on some strong volume.
Good trade, I was seriously contemplating taking a short from that resistance earlier today.
Hopefully the Aussie release in a few propels you to greater profits.
Thanks upcomer, much appreciated 
I was way more keen to be long UJ once it broke 102 and re-tested it, but I dunno what I was doing yesterday on the 5m chart during that time, lunch or something.
On the Aussie just now, and stopping volume/climactic volume in general, just wondering how everyone plays it out.
Say you get stopping volume, in this case before the NAB sentiment news (AUD), the following candle you’re looking for a bullish reaction to confirm stopping volume. My question is, what if the reaction is “too much” and the volumes huge and there’s a sign of selling on top… Is there such a things as “too much” reaction to stopping volume? Or does that only further confirm a change in price direction?
1 - Stopping volume,
2 - Bullish reaction (but is it too much, can we stick with our bearish bias, or does this blow the bears out of the water?),
3 - Bearish reaction of the reaction, (inception volume!)
Yeah I see what you’re saying.
Pete has talked about this in the past, effort vs. result. He could explain it better than I could but let me take a shot at it.
From our base TF, the 1 hour, we see a definitive bearish background, with climatic volume propelling prices down Thursday morning. Fast forward to today’s NAB release and we see a pick up in volume at lower prices, so it’s feasible to assume it’s Demand. From my analysis, I didn’t see a great case to go long from where prices rallied so that means we’re sideline. As time continued, we saw that the “effort” of the Bulls on the release “resulted” in an eventual drop in price.
We’re retesting as I type. Now it’s time to see if this level was actually a level the Bulls want to maintain. I’d bet on a couple days of consolidation before a rise, so another drop lower for real demand seems more likely.
Thanks upcomer, great call. I appreciate your feedback eh. On the 5m TF the automatic support looked good to be short from. I’m getting back into this method, today = putting together the notes from “everything” (400 pages of forum, 30 videos) !
Eyes currently burning! But rejoicing as my Euro short is still tumbling 
Hey upcomer, looks like that Aussie SV from yesterday was the level.
“If it looks like SV, & smells like SV…”
Yeah, the Bulls showed their hand again at that level. Aussie on the Daily charts has it testing a 3 Mo trendline but you can’t assume it’ll hold until the Buying starts.
Just wondering what you guys think about EU this week (yesterday’s stopping volume)…
Strong bearish move last week, yesterday we got some high volume, wide bearish bar close off the bottom, but the following candle closed (almost) lower and got a lot less volume. If this was stopping volume, or enough to change price direction, the lower prices should attract more buyers/higher volume eh?
I realize that it’s played out today to stay bearish, but it looks like the candle “following” the stopping volume is the important one?
Just fully realised the importance of Trend Channels today looking at the G/U drop. The shakeout around the news (9:30 GMT+1) near the upper trendline drawn from the H4 timeframe really shows SM trapping any foolish longs aaaaand down she goes. Looking at yesterdays London/NY session then the Asia session and knowing these huge moves need to be fed by these kinds of shakeouts I was expecting a false move to the top to get rid of weak holders. Price has currently left the lower trendline and is testing D1 support. A break of this and its skydiving time.
ha, look at that AJ go… someone should be long in that trade!
So there was really large volume on G/U today resulting in a large down move which will now test a key support on the daily chart. Do you reckon that was the climatic volume and end of the downtrend? Probably see some range activity as buyers might decide this is a good level to get in.
If you look at the 5 min chart you can see where the volume comes in. Its mostly from the fake break to the upside, leading to the down move. Also price continued to drift below that high volume candle. If their were buyers there it would have held that level much better.
I wouldn’t buy or sell here. Much better to wait for a fib retrace to sell or hit some real stopping volume confirmed to buy.
I’m with societygang here, the stopping volume on the hourly gets “rejected” (not sure of the Wyckoff/Fader term, but price keeps making lower closes.
Morning Folks,
Wondering what everyone’s thoughts are on AUD this morning on the 1HR. Last night’s GBP news sent everything a bit crazy, the AUD has been moving up but the moves are kind of chaotic/climactic marks up with sellers in at the top, stopping volume confirms but to ruin the day, buyers are coming into the pullbacks.
The latest swing has tested the 50 fib strongly and also the 0.93 level. I’m “Long” in my bias but only up until the recent swing high/stopping volume.
Anyone got any thoughts on this?
Check out the 4hour, right on a trendline might be a better sell then a buy, but its a decision point one to watch.
Good call, might have a bit more to run or test the high again, think I’ll sit on my hands & look elsewhere for something cleaner to trade today.
I’m leaning towards the downside for the Aussie too. The volume yesterday left a bearish taste in my mouth.
The last 2 high volume days, July 30th and August 7th, both pushed prices lower. So until the Bulls show their hand, in climatic fashion, I’m looking to sell rallies.
EDIT: Here’s a visual
