Very Interesting old post from HR4. So that post clearly shows accumulation then a markdown. This certainly does not fit in with the standard thinking around how Smart Money operates! Any one care to explain why SM would buy up a ton of orders then markdown price?
You canāt look at too wide of a picture, focus on the most recent 1HR candles. It makes sense in that they accumulated to drive the prices higher to sell from the top.
Thanks Pete, you are right most of low volume was during Asia. Still not sure if I can get any relevant information from this picture, somebody told me that the supportive buying last few days might be also big guys liquidating short positions from higher levels.
Support turned resistance on the Daily chart
All attempts to go above have been rejected, even the mighty NFP was rejected, and hard.
Definietely looking for some big short moves this week.
Man, it only took ALL day for that long to pay off.
Hi VSAāers. New to the forum/VSA. I trade AUD/USD but have a question in general regarding trading [B]after[B] a major news event.
On the daily chart we can see AUD has reached a significant resistance line which held twice in 2011
On the 1hr chart, it entered this range last week to which appears to me like distribution. The overall sentiment was a bearish one, based on recent ānewsā, and given that the market had priced in a 25bp cut in anticipation of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Well the news released at that point was an unexpected one - there was no interest rate cut. Now I know that smart money cannot control what the RBA decides, but it was a perfect opportunity for a markup and stop out the majority who were in the short at that point. Up 80 pips within the minute of release.
At this point it seems tempting for most retail traders to change into a long position and expect a bullish environment based on this unexpected ānewsā and large markup. My question is, on the 5 minute chart, is this a valid stopping volume? Or merely just reflecting the markup by smart money activity, with conditions being too volatile to assess volume? Given the background supply coming in, it would also make sense for a markdown now and stop out those who are now long.
Id like some advice with regards to VSA post major news releases.
2 more things Id like to mention:
Is it just a coincidence that the news was released at the resistance of the ascending channel?
What if the RBA had announced a rate cut decision? Would SM still temporarily markup price, knowing the bearish sentiment?
@forexgph2012
These are major signs of weakness, the candles are closing off their highs, thatās one point, the next candle is bearish, so we have a a weak reaction to the news, we then have a bearish reaction to a bullish price, so yes, that in my book makes it SV, but rising markets always go a little further than you think they will, so you need to be very careful going short, because when it does falling markets always fall faster, so be ready.
What Iāve noticed is that thereās no significance in how many times a resistance or support line held, just what bars and volumes are telling you. I almost got burned last month with a similar outcome. The price action on the left showed that SM was positioning themselves long for a big upmove like that. Iāve stopped reading the news and taking to heart what they say. The FX calendar just shows me when to expect a big move in the direction that VSA is pointing.
I really wish I screenshotted the first article of news on Google finance yesterday. Basically gist was the Euro is going to fall in light the the Greece crisis. I couldnāt convince myself that short was the right move yesterday considering all the strength in the high volume downbars pre-London, plus that little move down for SM to get a better price on a long. That Upthrust in the middle wasnāt high enough volume to convince me that the long was invalid. By far not as climactic as the buy climax on the right. The Hourly chart in the end showed the 8:00-9:00 as the highest volumes of the day in retrospect. This was an aggressive entry, but I couldnāt convice myself of a short, so then that means itās gotta be long.
Sometimes the best market position is staying out 
A short on the GBP is looking rather tempting for a short with those two matching high vol spikes and no progress, but itās not a complete setup yet, and it could pop those highs.
Now, itās complete, itās popped the stops and a no demand, short I think, itās looking very short on the 15m and 5.
Looks about the same on the E/U. Just a little cautious considering no real stopping volume on the H1.
The pound on the 1HR is not showing signs of a climaxy situation, but the last volume is lower than the previous two on no progress, low volume no progress, No demand situation.
dat long was too sweetā¦i took all of it and am out ā¦lol.
So at either 9:00, 11:00, 12:00 SM knew about the news that was going to be released. Gotta love VSA.
Bernackeās gonna testify at 15:00 GMT, usually pops the E/U upward, Iām still keeping a piece of mine open. :eek:
Great trade, I missed that one.
how does the software looks now.
where are you releasing it
gr sander
Nailed the E/U long this morning. Approaching the resistance area, I took all but a small portion off (with a tight stop on the rest), and the breakout went in my favor.
Trade of the week for me! happy dance