Just go about your usual business first. Work your template from the bottom up.
Get the outer edges of your s&r zones marked up.
Identify possible reaction levels inside the outer area’s.
You already know where the previous day & week high-low levels are at.
Then simply overlay your pivots & see what they show.
You’re looking for common area’s of potential reaction & interest.
If you then receive a set up/trigger that you’ve identified as a consistently reliable trade entry, ensure you can compute acceptable risk for your intended aims, then go get the job done!
Your outer edge of the template might look something like this to the upside on Cable?
[B]The initial inside edge s&r level at 5320-50[/B]
And this mornings s&r flip level indicating good potential support at the round number camp, where orders will be sniffing out upside continuation stops & renewed ‘long’ order activity.
Get your pivots overlayed & see if they add any more flavor to the current scenario!
The GU had decided to let me play ball. My orders were filled and now price had break 1.5300. I had closed out most of my positions and moved stop loss to last week high at 1.5217 which is near my entry price. This trade is now practically risk free. I will let my position run.
I may have trail my stop too close.
Now that we are in territory that is a year old or more for highs, and lows, and some of them territory never covered (see EU/CHF), how would you look at this in order to identify new zones of interest?
Just wondering what the protocol would be for trying to identify levels that haven’t been seen in quite some time. Especially since we lose more detailed chart info going back that far.
I don’t trade this pair, but if I did I’d work with I got in front of me.
When I’m looking to get my bearings on a pair I’ll work from the inside out first.
I want to know where the near-term potential reaction zones are at, & I’ll drill into the smaller timeframes & work outwards until I get a little confluence or common ground.
I’ll also want to know what’s driving or influencing the price action (if anything). Why? because that will have an immediate affect the current range of movement & behavior.
I’ve found it’s often more beneficial to work my templates this way around. It makes sense to me to get to work on the close quarter influences first, & when the price action breaks up or down I can get a hold of the price drivers & run with it regardless of the directional flows.
You’re welcome.
Sometimes looking it at from another angle (or another pair of eyes) shines a different colored light on proceedings.
It is yes, & it would be approached in just the same way.
Actually this is Jimmy’s chart layout on the Euro, but it adopts the same principles.
Work your near-term common ground zones, sit back & wait for the price action to make a move or tip you the nod.
If it then looks like picking up a little head of steam, get your set up & trigger in place & as long as it meets your specific criteria for action, go get a little piece of it.
That breakout channel around the 3450 zone was/is it’s near term return trip fulcrum.
I looked backwards on the euro daily, and used a few open, close, hi, and low common areas from a year+ ago, and some even older.
This zone in the euro has been well traveled, and actually things are playing out just like one could expect.
It would seem confluence, and congestion just don’t know dates;)
That’s right. They rarely discriminate.
You’ll also find they react extremely well to the changing price drivers & influences.
As you say, it’s a common zone of interest going back a fair time period. And that zone reacted for very differing reasons at that time.
If you look back at the 1.38 zone that bracketed the top of this range, it became the center of attention last summer for price support purposes.
They’ve keyed off it this winter as a resistance barrier during all the recent bickering & uncertainty regards the debt problems hanging heavy on the single currency.
They’re also very common areas for stops & option interest. That’s why they often attract a lot of each-way traffic whenever they come into view on the radar.
They get bounced around as fair value camps for a while before something else sets it off & away we go again. You can usually get onboard a decent pullback entry though if you miss the first shunt out of the level.
She’ll get another pop at it if it fails to retake the 49 handle.
It’s simply short covering & bargain hunters thus far.
I pressured jj into putting his hand in pockets (+ I threatened to reveal his inner most desires if he didn’t prop it at the pullback)
They need to sniff out the likely stops beyond 93 if we want to grind this next mini-leg into gear, otherwise it’ll fizzle & die.
Just skip over to that little guy stood in the corner with the black shiny suit & oversize glasses will you & ask him if he’ll get his bosses to “intervene” just once more today!
I think we’d much rather you dish the dirt on his desires, lol.
It posted well in excess of it’s avg days range yesterday, & still remained buoyed during it’s own local trading session. I guess that would indicate strength up at current levels?
Would traders generally look to confidently buy and/or support shallow dips such as that with the pure expectation of riding it through the next swing high, rather than wait to catch the momentum thrust as it probes for the stops you’ve made reference to?
It depends what their strategy is. You got to appreciate there are $ units running around out there operating very different agenda’s.
You’ll rarely see these units laying down their complete wedge right at the off.
They’ll feed their stakes gradually into the move to check the strength, momentum & expectation of the trip.
You got a 3 or 4 mill wedge to lay, you’ll cut it up into bite sized chunks & feed it into the levels as it confirms your intent.
Obviously, the size of the bet will be proportionate to your intentions.
If [B]you[/B] as an individual were looking to piggyback that breakout through the hourly range top at 90.70 looking for a run to the next upside supply levels @ 92 & 93.5, & you had a couple mill bet size, or maybe a 5-6 lot stake to lay down, then you’d probably break it down to a 50/25/25% split, or maybe a 30/40/30 deal.
You judge & size the stake according to what you’re looking to do with your information & strategy expectations.
Ie: a short range play would attract a more aggressive percentage breakdown, a longer range play might necessitate a more conservative percentage outlay. Depends entirely on your style, strategy or model parameters & risk attitude.
You’re not going to fully commit until you receive confirmation that the trade is a goer. You want to at least be sure the move will attract momentum & trade units are stepping up to the plate.
The last thing you want to have happen is to be left standing there the wrong side of the breakout with your pants round your ankles & the muggers running off with your whole wedge stuffed in their pocket.
Regular viewers of the TT threads will recognize this familiar scenario straight off the bat.
How many times has it been documented (ahead of time on a good number of occasions) on the other 2 threads?
Supply & demand (support & resistance) levels being tested & re-tested for continuation orders & finding bids & offers to balance & shoulder moves up & down the ladder.
You don’t need to know why or how deep the stop orders are building, only that these common levels & zones will always dictate the flow of the price action as it vibrates important key area’s.
The chart, via it’s many different timeframe references, will show you where the supply is overwhelming the demand & vice versa.
Look for it where it’s most visible.
And get ready to play when the volumes & participation are likely to be at their optimum uptake.
Did you manage to pull your troops out safely? Cable doesnt seem to play ball since that retrace to 24th low. Looks like that run up was enough scare all the bears.
Do you expect 4780 to be taken out before the weekend?
I got unseated & took my medicine at 1.4875 (for -25). The odds & value were fair, so I was more than happy with it.
Judging by the apathy of today’s activity, no.
But it’s Friday, there’s no data, traders are bored & the volumes are tapering off big style into the close.
We’re little more than a heartbeat from the current years lows, so who knows.
Tess got aboard again earlier this morning with another feeder stake just in case it drops its pants into mid NY trade, but I’m not so convinced.
There’ll be heavy stops building below 4770 for sure & decent bids defending that zone tiered back from here. It’s working through those currently, so I guess we’ll see just how heavy they are huh?
Early finish for me I think. Hit the bar & get my dancing shoes on!
I see, so it was one of those breakout gigs then. Do you play them often? Just asking because I can’t recall too many occasions it was mentioned before in the previous threads.
The only thing that really matters
Well it sure seems like that was a good decision on your part. Not like you missed any action anyway huh?
Yeah.
I figured I’d cast a teaser line out around that level & try get a taste of how deep & strong the stops are underneath the years lows.
Occasionally the market will probe for stops into a late week run when the volumes are low or slack. You can get aboard some pretty aggressive (albeit short lived) moves when you catch it right & bunches of close quarter stops begin firing off.
Extremely high potential reward for a low outlay.
Once & if that objective has been put to bed, it’s a case of stepping aside to see how the market sets up after an aggressive shift up or down, or a move thru prior key highs & lows such as quarterly or yearly levels.
You can choose to play it either way if it encounters strong (initial) demand. Either look for a pullback-continuation set up play or a short-term change in directional bias.
Sure. I’ll take a look at the Tokyo range if it’s bracketed in an orderly manner.
Prior days & weeks high/low breaks are another favorite.
Key levels such as the current Cable zone.
They’re either played via blind break via a feeder stakes (scaling in) or pullbacks (full bet size at outset).
No, you won’t see too much mention of them on the other 2 threads. Tess & the other guys who post(ed) here take a slightly longer-term view of proceedings. They’re not what you’d term as short-range participants.
I however don’t mind so much. Short, medium, long range – makes no difference to me. If I spot a bargain I’ll take a sniff at it.
If it sits up straight & hangs around long enough on my radar, whilst offering me favourable risk odds, I’ll whack it!
