Thanks RC64. Appreciate your input.
regards,
Hi everyone.
You know me: âtell it like it is (possibly at your own expense in the future Dale)â!!! LOL!!!
Iâm âoutâ. Iâm âbackâ to where I was on Friday night. No profit. But no loss either. Just âsquareâ.
Should I be happy??? Yes. Should I be proud??? No. There is NO way Iâd have managed to accomplish this had I not GROSSLY overtraded my account. And, well, of course, the markets have come down (yesterday and up until a short while ago) as fast as they went up on Monday and Tuesday. So: I guess (Iâm âman enough to admitâ) that âluckâ played a part here. Alright: HUGE positions with very tight stops BUT following two of my trading systems âto the letterâ (as if that is justification). It just happened to pay off. So THAT IS IT FOR ME FOR THIS WEEK (trading anyway)!!!
UNFORTUNATELY: it came at the cost of my short Adam EUR/USD trade i.e. I used that to cover whatever losses were still not covered. Given the position sizes I wasnât prepared to take the chances of waiting for stop and reverse signals etc. from my trading systems. So for the record: I got out at market at 1.2848. BUT BUT BUT: I STILL have EUR/USD shorts (based on Adam) on those other âno deposit bonus accountsâ so letâs see where THEY end up (I got short at pretty much the same price on those accounts anyway). And Iâll keep âsolvingâ Adam anyway (positions open or not).
RC64:
Why carry positions??? My NORMAL âmodus operandiâ is to close profitable positions and leave losers open on a Friday (if, of course, my trading systems have not signalled me to do otherwise). I also remove all stops on those open (losing) positions because I know theyâre not worth âsh*tâ on a Monday and normally âlike clockworkâ the opening gap on a Monday will retrace ALMOST to itâs open anyway. If it doesnât: I wait for five minutes after the open (and the gap) and then place a stop above the high or below the low of the first five minute bar to close. Usually: price turns. It it doesnât??? âOh wellâ!!! Works for me anyway.
Anyway: ONE MORE LESSON LEARNT!!! (As a matter of fact I think there is a thread that someone started just before Christmas about âwhen to tradeâ or something like that). The lesson: stop trading the week before Christmas and stay away until the beginning of the second week in January. At least if youâre a trend trader and tend to be âalways inâ!!!
âWhewâ!!! Talk about âdodging the bulletâ!!! Although I shouldnât be âmaking light of thisâ. This was NO joke. âDonât try this at homeâ!!!
Put it this way and no matter what: TECHNICALLY I donât start my âfeeling positive about lifeâ year with a loss!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hi Dale,
Glad to hear that you managed to square off.
Regards,
Hello.
Yeh well as I said: nothing to be proud of given my methods used. For anybody that has even the slightest respect for me please promise me one thing: ALWAYS âdo as I say and not as I doâ!!! LOL!!!
Honestly though: I donât believe that there was ANY way that I could have âseen that comingâ last Friday. There wasnât even the slightest hint that the markets would âreverse on a dimeâ and I know because I sat here until the last âtick had tickedâ (and even THEN some). Honestly: I was expecting a huge gap DOWN if anything. But hey: there is one very ROUNDABOUT confirmation of ANOTHER important lesson here!!! Had I ALREADY been overtrading and not managing risk on Friday it would most DEFINITELY have been âgame overâ AGAIN. Think about that!!!
Regards,
Dale.
There is no way to really âseeâ something like that coming dale. Unless somebody has a special crystal ball somewhere I donât know about? Worst part is that you canât even control your positions at all until itâs too late! Thatâs why Iâm saying that you can pray for the best but you should prepare for the worst. In this case I say perhaps close your positions before the weekend or lower your risk so that if it does gap against you it isnât so catastrophic? Anyway, just my two cents 
Hello RC64.
I really do appreciate your input.
Iâve been sitting here thinking that itâs a trade (or trades) that actually should be analysed to be honest. Normally: I just âtake them as they comeâ and âplod alongâ. But Iâm willing to bet if I look back two weeks from last Friday Iâll in all probability find a few good reasons for my not supposed to be even BEING in those trades (trading systems aside i.e. that part was correct). Little to record low volume on the NYSE for starters I remember distinctly from Bloomberg TV. And Iâll ALMOST âbetâ that with proper market data youâll find something in the data that indicated that âsomethingâ or âsomeoneâ knew JUST what was going to happen at the open on Monday and was positioning themselves for it. What Iâm saying is that itâs a bit of a âstretchâ for me to believe that late Friday it was all âgloom and doomâ and the DAX âshot up like a rocketâ at the open on Monday morning because âsomethingâ or âsomeoneâ just happened to wake up in a good or a âlongâ mood. I think this is where you start getting into the ânitty grittyâ. I mean: had there been any news data over the weekend or whatever then that could be explained away no problem. But there was NOTHING.
And one thing I DID do wrong for sure: the losses were almost miniscule on the losing positions I had open on Friday. I know from experience that if the USA is not open then NOTHING âbehavesâ normally. So I SHOULD have said to myself âjust take the losses and be done with itâ. Alright: in fairness to me I honestly thought that the US Futures would start trading in the early hours of (my) Monday morning. I had no idea (until it was too late of course) that they would only open for trading at 13h00 GMT+2 on (my) Tuesday. So: another mistake. I didnât do my âdue diligenceâ. As a rule: when I know that the US Futures are going to be closed for trading I donât trade. Simple as that. So again: my fault there. Also not thinking. It was the DAY on which New Year (and Christmas) fell which was different from previous years anyway i.e. extended holidays were the result. That âplayed into itâ as well.
Anyway: just âthinkingâ (posting) âaloudâ is all. More to âlearnâ and to not ârinse and repeatâ at the end of THIS year (and, well, it may help others too).
Regards,
Dale.
By the way:
Donât anybody go thinking Iâm some kind of âheroâ for âgetting outâ once I was âsquareâ!!! LOL!!! Iâm doing something that NO trader should do and that is monitoring positions that I WAS in!!! LOL!!! Thereâs nothing quite like watching, say, EUR/USD, âtankâ a LOT further and Iâm âoutâ!!! LOL!!!
Then again: it does remind me of a âsayingâ (that used to be somebodyâs âsignatureâ around here at one stage and one which has always âstayed with meâ). It went something along the lines of:
âIâd rather be out of a trade, wishing I was in, than being in a trade, wishing I was outâ!!! LOL!!!
(But no: it doesnât make me feel any better)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
If you are doing something you shouldnât be then why are you doing it dale? New year! Time to do as you say instead of just saying it! Stop worrying about the profit you could have made and focus on the fact that you havenât lost anything! If you look at that book that this thread refers toâŚâif you mind the losses the profits will take care of themselves.â
Do you mind if I ask how many instruments you trade and how many âsystemsâ you use? If you canât get your discipline down, maybe it would be best to focus on one instrument and one âsystemâ until you can!
Why???
Because I cannot help myself!!! LOL!!! Iâm âhumanâ you know. Iâll only feel better once price is going against me (against where I was)!!! LOL!!!
YOU should know that you can ask me anything. Youâve been a member here almost as long as I have and Iâm sure weâve âinteractedâ before???
I trade ALMOST exclusively Wilderâs Swing Index System. Now and then though: Iâll trade any one of the other systems presented on my forums (normally in addition to an open trade using Wilderâs Swing Index System). Gettting âsquareâ here can be attributed SOLELY to Wilderâs Swing Index System and Turtle Soup Plus One (Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg).
Instruments: ALWAYS CFDs on the major indices. Pick any one you like. The Dow, S&P, and the NASDAQ being my âdarlingsâ (unless I can find a trade within my risk parameters on the Spanish IBEX or the Italian MIB40 because THOSE, as Master Tang would say, âcan make you move in ways that you never thought possibleâ i.e. when they MOVE they MOVE)!!! LOL!!! And basically: never more than three or four positions at a time (although a single position may be made up of multiple CFD units or âcontractsâ). Thatâs about it. This EUR/USD trade was nothing more than an Adam âexperimentâ really (although as much as I hate to admit it: it played a major role in my getting out of the âyou know whatâ because I was able to âpile onâ to the position at certain intervals as it was going down BUT let me qualify THAT by saying that I âpiled onâ based on Wilderâs Swing Index System and NOT based on Adam Theory).
Comments???
Regards,
Dale.
Well, canât say Iâm familiar with the Swing Index System anymore (Itâs been quite a long time since I read that book!). What time frame do you use? Do you take every trade that the system signals or do you use some sort of filter? Just trying to better understand what your trading plan is (do you have a plan that is set in stone?!) before I offer any suggestions.
WHY are you being so âniceâ??? I always get âsuspiciousâ when people are being âniceâ!!! LOL!!! Iâm only joking. As I said: I appreciate your input.
Wilderâs Swing Index System??? âIn my bookâ (âin HIS bookâ) is one of the finest and well thought out trading systems around. While it may not make 100% ROI PER HOUR: itâs âspecialâ. I know that sounds strange. But: âit works for meâ.
No: I donât use any filter. According to âthe old manâ (as you probably know that is my âterm of endearmentâ for THE Mr. J. Welles Wilder Jnr.): one SHOULD use ADX as a filter for ANY of his trading systems. While that does âhold trueâ for commodities: itâs too slow to react to the movements of, say, the S&P as an example. And from my experience: âtinker with it at your own perilâ. Wilder was a commodities ONLY trader. And they (commodities) DO move differently from anything else.
Timeframes: I SWORE ON MY LIFE that Iâd only EVER trade the daily timeframes (as did Wilder). But, for the past few months, with the odd âanomalyâ that one needs to be aware of, his Swing Index System works JUST as well (if not better because of the closer stops and my addressing these little âanomaliesâ that occur from time to time) on the 1-hour timeframes and that NOW is what I trade MAINLY.
I would say that my âtrading planâ IS INDEED âcarved in stoneâ but thatâs mainly because no matter what: I always seem to revert to his Swing Index System. It just âsuits meâ I guess. Iâm not âintoâ these trading systems that keep you in a trade for an hour or two for a few points here and there. Itâs ONLY drawback is the fact that you DO get âchopped to deathâ in a range bound market but Iâve learnt to live with that and be at ease with it. Could I make more money by staying away from range bound markets OR trade ONLY in the direction of the prevailing trend on the timeframe that Iâm trading at any given time instead of stopping and reversing as the Swing Index System would have you do??? Hell yeh. But the solution to THAT problem is âin the comingâ as we âspeakâ (REALTIME Market Data to give you a clue)!!! LOL!!!
But please: offer suggestions ANYWAY. Forget about my âdogmaticâ approach to things (Iâm âbadâ with that type of thing). I mean to say: weâre all here to âshareâ and âaidâ and âassistâ (well MOST of us anyway and those that donât âcut the mustardâ donât last too long letâs face it)!!!
Look: by Wilderâs OWN admission his Volatility System is his âbest offeringâ. But that is for L-O-N-G term trading on the daily timeframes. That system had me long on the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ for MONTHS. The problem??? What to do to keep my mind occupied during the day??? With THAT system: itâs a question of taking a look at a daily chart once per day for a minute and then going to bed. While that may SOUND like âheavenâ: it can ALSO drive you INSANE no matter HOW much money you may be making over a long period of time. His Swing Index System has âjust the right amount of actionâ for somebody like me. As Iâve noted: Adam Theory (the TEXT in the book) is what âspokeâ to me. But then I started looking at Adam Theory as a âfilterâ for the Swing Index System. As Iâve noted (once again): I donât think thatâs viable. His Swing Index System a) reacts far quicker and b) is more âclearly definedâ. Unfortunately: Iâm one of those people that needs a sort of âtrade-by-number (paint-by-number)â type trading system. Leave me to my own devices and interpretation??? Itâs a âno goâ!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
You seem to be the type of person who wants a lot of action (this can be a bad thing if you are trying to have discipline!). One suggestion would be to use a filter that will decide whether you are going to ONLY act on buy signals or ONLY act on sell signals during the entire course of the day with your hourly Swing Index System. How will you determine this filter? Thatâs easy! All you need to do is look at yesterday and ask yourself, âDid yesterday go higher or lower than the previous day?â. If it went higher then you will ONLY buy today, if lower then ONLY sell. The book states that the simplest form of a trend is what? Exact Repetition! If yesterday went higher than the previous day then what would you think today would do? If you wished to add another filter you could also apply this same idea to the previous week although that would obviously lead to less trades. Since you seem to watch multiple markets you might still be able to use both the daily and weekly filter to satisfy your appetite. Food for thought.
BTW, ever notice that if you just draw a line from the first bar in the adam theory technique to the last that it gives you the same information about the trend without all that reflection business? wink wink
Hello again.
Well I have to say: your post is MOST insightful. An âall rounderâ and quite simple and âto the pointâ (unlike my ânovelsâ). Thank you.
I wouldnât categorise myself as someone who wants a lot of action. I would say that six years ago thatâs what I THOUGHT this business was about i.e. âbuyâ, âsellâ, every thirty seconds. It doesnât work that way. At least not in my experience. Thatâs âHollywoodâ and, in my opinion, is the âmagnetâ that âdrawsâ the uninformed to this business. Floor traders??? Yes. MAYBE. Online retail traders like us (me)??? No way. Sorry to upset any of the SUCCESSFUL Scalpers. If youâre âquick and nimbleâ enough to be profitable: I couldnât be happier for you and I mean that. Itâs just not for me.
Your insights are interesting. Although Iâm a âWilder junkieâ I do have other âheroesâ. Larry Williams being one of them. Heâs got many S&P trading systems and one of them, oddly enough, and I forget what itâs called, also works on the premise that if the DAILY close is in the upper 80% then only long trades the next day (and of course visa versa if the DAILY close is in the lower 80%). But you know what??? Me??? Even âventuringâ into Adam Theory is a âstep outâ. I spent too many years and lost too much money âjumping from trading system to trading systemâ (usually after two or three consecutive losses). And that INCLUDES Wilderâs trading systems. I kept making one of the typical new trader mistakes. Now: a few consecutive losses donât bother me at all. No: itâs not NICE when it happens (the âprofanity aboundsâ after the fourth or fifth consecutive loss) BUT Iâm alright with all of that now because I NOW have learnt (and ONLY from PAPER TRADING which is something I DID NOT do when I started out) that EVENTUALLY, and given the implementation of risk and money management, my trading system of choice will not let me down IN THE LONG RUN.
I GUESS what Iâm saying is that EVEN ALTHOUGH Iâm not in line for âtrader of the centuryâ and Iâm not capable of making 100% ROI per DAY: Iâm at least âon the right roadâ and donât really want to âmessâ with anything. But thatâs NOT to say that I donât constantly listen, read, and âtake heedâ of advice given or shared. And YOUR advice given and shared I will most certainly âlook intoâ.
Thanks again.
Regards,
Dale.
Hello.
Well: here it is. Adam âsolvedâ for EUR/USD (daily) after the close yesterday.
Any bets on 1.2500 or parity with the USD??? LOL!!!
The way I see it: one could STILL âjust shortâ the pair. Go short at market at the open on Sunday night, set your SL at 2%, 5%, or even 10% of your account, and forget about the trade. The point is that it only has to go down another few days and youâve ALREADY got an indication of a possible reaction at which point you will move your stop at which time profit will be locked in. Of course: âsolvingâ Adam DAILY would be ideal and far more accurate so for anybody in the world where the sun is still shining when Deltastockâs Daily Charts close then feel free to open a DeltaStock MetaTrader Demo and âsolveâ Adam for us!!! Iâm afraid my going to bed after midnight doesnât do anything for my personality the next day!!! LOL!!!
Oh and if you take the trade: donât blame me if it goes awry. Moan at Mr. Wilder. And his telephone number is ⌠LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
P.S. Iâll get to Gold and Silver SOMETIME before Monday. Because Iâve been âoutâ since Thursday (which of course Iâm KICKING myself for now ESPECIALLY after seeing the attached chart) I put that time to good use and had QUITE a few drinks so even putting THIS chart together was a âfeat of noteâ for me today!!! LOL!!!
eurusdadamdailywe06012012.zip (30.8 KB)
Hello.
Well: as promised here are the âsolvedâ Adam charts for Gold and Silver (although a day late: sorry) for the week ended 06/01/2012.
These are a little more difficult to analyse and to voice an opinion. That being said: Iâd be inclined to wait for another DEEP correction and then start looking for a buy signal at a very low price rather than try to catch both the short and long movements (with Adam Theory anyway). But as we (should) know by now: Adam adjusts to the âNOWâ so the âbig pictureâ could change at any time.
At some point in time it may be a good idea to start comparing these Second Reflection Charts to what has ACTUALLY happened in the markets (Iâm just not sure that we have enough data yet to make an accurate comparison although, thus far, Adam has âperformed pretty perfectlyâ on EUR/USD letâs face it).
Enjoy.
Regards,
Dale.
xagusdadamdailywe06012012.zip (32.6 KB)
xauusdadamdailywe06012012.zip (34.6 KB)
Thanks for the work in getting the charts Dale!
Itâs my pleasure.
Actually: Iâm getting pretty âquickâ at doing them now. But not quick enough to do them in real time on the 1-hour charts unfortunately. That would be interesting.
One or two other interesting things âin the comingâ:
Wilder mentions nothing of stopping and reversing so I can only assume that you trade in one direction until stopped out and then wait for the next trade??? Not quite figured that one out yet.
The true test will come when itâs time to move a stop and see what happens then (probably much the same thing as above). Unfortunately: âsolvingâ Adam without having the Y-Axis pricing doesnât make things any easier (I need to find a way around it and unfortunately itâs not QUITE as simple as simply extending the Y-Axis pricing because the chart scaling may have changed. Well: Iâm not sure about MetaTrader but I know it will change with Delta Trading because as the earlier bars âfall offâ the visible chart window the âbest fitâ chart is displayed). I can just see myself sitting here with a slide rule and a compass!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hi Dale,
You mentioned that you use Swing Index System. Do you use it on forex?
Hello.
Sorry: no idea why I missed your post (although Iâll tell you that some âfukerâ has gotten a hold of my main email address and all of a sudden Iâm getting spam emails from everywhere i.e. from porn sites to casinos AND NO I DO NOT FREQUENT SUCH SITES and NEVER HAVE before I get some 'smart areâ remark)!!! LOL!!! The point is that my âInstant Email Notificationâ of your post for this thread probably ended up with those âShift-Deleteâ emails!!! LOL!!!
The Swing Index System??? Yep!!! Thatâs âmy systemâ. The best trading system on the planet (well for me anyway)!!! LOL!!! Thatâs the good news. The BAD news is that I failed MISERABLY trading FOREX with it. BUT (as Iâve noted many times): after my very LAST MISERABLE failure (about three years ago now???) I stopped trading FOREX completely and started trading CFDs on Futures, Indices, Commodities, etc. with the Swing Index System BUT ALSO with a lot of âhard lessons learntâ, a lot of back testing (paper trading), etc. In other words: it wasnât just a simple change of the markets that I was trading that âturned things aroundâ i.e. there was a lot more to it. THAT BEING SAID though: I DID INDEED, last year, open a demo, for some or the other âcontestâ (well it wasnât really a âcontestâ i.e. itâs a long story), at FXCM, and could ONLY trade FOREX for this âcontestâ (letâs call it a âprojectâ). Bottom line: same trader, same trading system, different instruments (FOREX vs. CFDs), and, alright, different broker. The end result for the same month (period): I lost 10% of a $100 000 demo account and made 10% or thereabouts trading MY markets (CFDs on the Indices). Alright: DID I CONCENTRATE AS HARD on the demo??? Probably not although I did follow my trading rules, trading system, and money and risk management rules. So this is still a bit of an âunknownâ to me. Honestly: I believe that FOREX âmovesâ differently from equities and commodities. I believe itâs âjust that simpleâ. Whatâs more: ALL the trading systems that I use (there are a few that âfrom time to timeâ, depending on the setup, I MAY use) were developed by either equities or commodities traders and NOT by FOREX traders. I believe that makes a difference too.
One thing that IS worth noting though: I HAVE traded it profitably (not often though) on âexoticâ pairs (most of the pairs that most traders wouldnât âtouch with a bargepoleâ given the HUMONGOUS spreads). Whether itâs my imagination or not: it appears to me that the âexoticsâ âtend to trendâ WAY better and for FAR longer than the FOREX majors (and remember that the Swing Index System is, after all, a trend following system). So thereâs a bit of useless (useful???) information!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: make of the above âwhat you willâ. Iâm quite happy to help you if you want to try it to trade FOREX and frankly Iâd be quite happy if you proved my âtheoriesâ wrong. Given that âeverybody and his dogâ just HAS to trade FOREX it kinda makes it WAY more difficult to solicit clients on the basis that youâll provide them with the tools necessary to trade profitably from the very beginning BUT just so long as they donât trade FOREX!!! LOL!!! Thatâs a âhard sellâ!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
Do you have any good reads on swing trading systems? Were do you recommend I start researchingâŚ
Thanks!