Sorry. But did you just ask me if I have any ‘good reads’ on it??? Or did I misread that. Let me check. Nope. You’re kidding right???
ONLY JOKING!!! LOL!!!
There is an ENTIRE SITE (MY FORUMS) DEDICATED to the trading of CFDs, my beloved broker, AND the numerous trading systems that I trade (which OBVIOUSLY includes Wilder’s Swing Index System)!!! Even Wilder’s BOOK is there (in which the system is detailed) (not to mention a variety of other resources that may ‘captcha your fancy’)!!! LOL!!!
Now I suppose the next thing you’re going to ask is what the address is??? LOL!!!
It’s O.K.
I just finished the chapter on swing index. Do you use the excel sheet and calculate the entry price as illustrated in the book or do you use the ASI indicator to enter your trade?
I spent six years perfecting those indicators!!! Now why would I use a spreadsheet??? LOL!!!
What I CAN tell you is this though: not only myself but at very LEAST a half a dozen people that I know OF have checked my indicator values against the spreadsheet in the book (obviously substituting current data for a particular instrument into a spreadsheet that they’ve created based on the one in the book). So I don’t know if you’re asking to be sure about the indicators but as they say in the classics: ‘trust me’.
But the ASI indicator doesn’t give you an entry price i.e. it only shows you WHERE your POSSIBLE entries, stop and reverse points, and trailing index stop and reverse points should be so you need to do a bit more reading there!!! The ASI signals need to be converted to ‘Price Action Points’ on the chart and that’s why the Swing Index System indicators comprise of not only the ASI indicator alone but also the other ‘SIS_’ indicators that are available (although you COULD work out the ‘Price Action Points’ manually i.e. it’s just a ‘pain in the you-know-what’ is all.).
For what it’s worth (and as you may have noted on my forums): I’m busy with (and HAVE been busy with for some time now) documenting the two indicator packages (for Delta Trading and Deltastock MetaTrader 4). Maybe I should upload the documentation for the Swing Index System indicator to get everyone going because I think people are getting a bit impatient!!! Sorry. Believe it or not: in spite of the sheer volume of ‘cr*p’ that I’m capable of writing on these forums I have some type of ‘psychological barrier’ when it comes to writing documentation for software!!! I don’t think I’ve ever actually completed a manual for software that I’ve written EVER (in one case I even EMPLOYED somebody to do it for some software that I’d written i.e. I just couldn’t take it)!!! LOL!!! But I’m a trader now so I cannot afford the luxury of employing somebody so I had better go finish it myself!!! LOL!!!
Also (and as BOLD a statement as this may be): MY Swing Index System ASI Indicator for Delta Trading and for MetaTrader 4 is THE ONLY CORRECT Swing Index System ASI Indicator ON THE INTERNET. ‘Trust me’ on this too i.e. I searched until ‘the last page of the Internet’ to be sure. NOTHING. All I’m saying is don’t anybody go ASSUMING that any ASI indicator may have been supplied as ‘standard’ with their trading platform is ‘Wilder correct’. The same applies to RSI, ATR, ADX, and Parabolic SAR (and frankly and as I’ve noted before: I’d check ANY indicator’s values against the correct calculations that are normally always available on the Internet from somewhere i.e. I’ve seen some real ‘corkers’ that give signals and readings that are NOTHING LIKE the original was designed to give).
IN CLOSING: this is SUPPOSED to be my Adam Theory testing thread (which ACTUALLY shouldn’t be here AT ALL EITHER but it got started here and, well, I guess at some point the main ‘features’ need to be transferred to the same thread on my forums) so let’s not do TOO much ‘swinging’ here!!! LOL!!!
Thanks a lot. I will check out your other forum to gain a better understanding and will use that forum to clarify any thing that I don’t understand (hope you don’t mind!). I agree with you totally that Mr Wilder’s book is not easy to understand.
Listen: I’ll help anybody I can no matter what they want to trade. I also not trying to ‘steal’ BabyPips Members. As a matter of fact: I’m hoping that the ‘symbiotic relationship’ between the two forums continues. It’s just that starting this weekend: I want to start ‘driving’ those forums of mine which I’ve not been doing (mainly because for a good while there didn’t appear to be much interest but it appears that is changing slowly but surely). I just don’t want to end up running ‘duplicate forums’ (as unfortunately is going to become the case with this Adam Theory Thread).
As for ALL of Wilder’s books: he is a man of few words. He gets to the to point. Hell: can you IMAGINE how long those books would be if I wrote them!!! ROFLOL!!!
But with ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ it’s VERY easy to miss even the slightest detail. I have a bad habit of ‘skimming over’ stuff when reading and I cannot tell you how many times I’ve questioned something in his systems only to find that in one little sentence somewhere, that I missed because of my ‘skimming over’, the detail was there. But that being said: I like to THINK I’ve done the hard work already and I’m pretty sure that by NOW I’ve read every ‘nook and cranny’ of that book (and should be able to ‘recite’ the whole damn thing verbatim by now)!!! LOL!!! That’s why I honestly believe that with a few hours of ‘coaching’ and my explaining some little ‘anomalies’ that occur from time to time that are NOT detailed in the book (purely, because as I’ve noted, as with ANY book on trading, all examples are ‘cherry-picked’), there’s NO reason for somebody to not at least start making SOME money without having to learn every little ‘nuance’ of ANY market.
What I WOULD like to see is a bit more interest in on-line training. I’ve done it with one or two people and it’s one HELL of a lot easier that having to draw charts and write down instructions but there’s ‘no takers’. And there’s no charge either so maybe people are just ‘shy’!!! LOL!!! It’s alright really. I don’t ‘bite’ (well not unless you ask me ‘which broker is best’)!!! LOL!!!
Well: here’s ‘solved’ Adam for EUR/USD for the week ended 13/01/2012. I cannot lie: I’ve been DYING to ‘solve’ these charts given the small retrace or ‘bounce’ that we saw this week. But: so far as I can tell we’re still going down. And I mean W-A-Y down EVEN IF you look at the ‘NOW’ moment.
What’s more: I’ve just heard on local news that seven EU countries (including France) have had their credit ratings downgraded (some by not one point but two). I think the downgrade of France was confirmed when the markets were still open yesterday but as for the rest I think that only happened last night after the markets were closed (but I stand corrected on the timing here). Also: the Greek ‘talks’ seem to have ‘hit the wall’ AGAIN. Personally I don’t understand all of this but my logic tells me that none of this can be good for the Euro. What I’ve also noticed (and have been watching out for) is for the negative correlation between the Euro and the major indices to start turning positive again and that sure looks like it’s ‘in the coming’. In other words: the ‘whole lot’ may be about to ‘crash and burn’. What’s the bet??? With my luck: I’ll be worth MILLIONS of USD at the end of November and the world will end in December (as per the Mayan Calendar)!!! LOL!!! JUST YOU WATCH!!! It wouldn’t surprise me in the least!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: is the above ‘confirming’ Adam Theory or is Adam Theory ‘confirming’ the above. I don’t know. As I say: time will tell and I personally am very keen to see what happens when the first MAJOR pullback or correction happens because only then, as I understand it, would you move your stops.
Anyway: this week I’ve solved both the daily and weekly charts for EUR/USD and done a little bit of price analysis again. For what it’s worth: on the one hand I hope Adam is wrong and that I’m wrong because I cannot see that having the Euro drop to the possible levels indicated on these charts could be a good thing for Europe OR for the major stock indices (USD strength because of Euro weakness). On the other hand: I’m still short on two ‘no deposit bonus’ accounts (you all know that I had to use my ‘real’ EUR/USD short to cover the losses of those SPECTACULAR opening gaps of the futures at the beginning of this month but I can tell you that THAT short would have been worth a ‘sh*tpile’ of USD by now and, well, had I been able to keep that short open, and these charts and Adam have any merit, well, then, that ‘weekend of debauchery’ for all of us, on me, would definitely have been ‘on the cards’)!!! LOL!!! Personally: I think one could ‘just short it’ again. But that’s like being a ‘Johnny come lately’. Or is it??? According to the book (The Adam Theory of Markets): as long as you’re ‘going with’ the market then there should be no problem. But unfortunately this COULD fall into the ‘buying at the very top’ and ‘selling at the very bottom’ (unless you have ‘blind faith’ in Adam Theory of course which I myself certainly do not or cannot have at this early stage).
Sorry: an edit to my above analysis (I was going to edit the post itself but then thought that those that had already seen it wouldn’t know of my mistake and it’s quite a big mistake).
[B]NINE[/B] EU States have had their credit ratings cut, including France, AFTER the [B]EU[/B] markets closed yesterday. It was Germany’s credit rating that was confirmed (and left untouched) while both the [B]US[/B] and the [B]EU[/B] the markets were open yesterday. Important difference.
I’ll never understand why people place so much weight on the opinion of some privately owned rating firm … there is so much talk about needing to have some European equivalent to S&P, so the ratings don’t exclusively come from the US.
Personally, I couldn’t care less … and I’ll wager S&P employees are as susceptible to being bribed as everybody else is.
Believe it or not: there’s actually an ongoing investigation in this regard. Do you know (I didn’t) that these ratings agencies CHARGE companies for them to be rated by them and there was some ‘banter’ on Bloomberg that there was an almost direct correlation with the ratings of some companies and the fees charged!!! Whether or not this applies to the rating of COUNTRIES or SOVREIGN DEBT I don’t know. But it’s a scary thought that a rating for a listed company can be ‘bought’. But of course: it’ll also (probably) turn out to be a ‘storm in a teacup’ and will be ‘explained away’. What I don’t get is WHY, after all the information that’s been uncovered and broadcast and made public, after the sub-prime crisis, they’re even allowed to operate. I’ve taken a lot of time and have been very interested in the ‘nitty gritty’ of what caused sub-prime and then the ensuing credit-crunch (mainly I suppose because that was the time of my ‘spectacular wipe-out’) and the bottom line is that had it NOT been for these ratings agencies ‘bundling’ what really were ‘junk’ mortgages along with some AAA rated instruments and ‘just following a formula’ and then rating the ‘bundle’ as ‘investment grade’ then sub-prime wouldn’t have had the catastrophic effect that it had globally. And yet to this day: investors (traders) ‘hang on their every word’. Just the other day (about a week or two ago) one of them made a ‘mistake’ and downgraded one of the big banks (I forget now which one). This caused a HUGE spike down in the stock price ‘in the twinkling of an eye’. Of course: minutes later they made it clear that is was a mistake (or WAS IT)??? And, if I’m not mistaken, it was the second time that this had happened in the space of a month or two. Just imagine being a trader trading with BIG money on a stock, being long, and getting stopped out because of such ‘mistake’, for a few thousand if not a few million dollars??? What’s more: your stop would have been slipped BIG time. And you couldn’t blame your broker for that either. I’d love to know if there were any lawsuits that were the result. But I suppose ‘the fine print’ covers them as is usually the case.
And people worry about a few pips slippage in MetaTrader!!! LOL!!!
Trust me. They had charts and everything showing a direct correlation between the fees charged by certain ratings agencies and the ratings of the companies that they’d afforded ratings and the said ratings were not supported by the fundamentals.
In my opinion: what is needed is an impartial Government Agency (if its possible for such an ‘animal’ to be created).
But here is Adam ‘solved’ for XAU/USD (Gold) for the week ended 13/01/2012 both daily and weekly.
And this is getting interesting on the weekly chart. I’ve done a bit of ‘Adam Price Analysis’ on the weekly chart and it seems we’re slowly but surely getting to a place, assuming things keep going the way they’re going, where any projected pullback will be above a low(est) point (these words and descriptions and interpretations being mine of course). In other words: slowly but surely we’re approaching a point where there is no more downside indicated and there is no projected pullback lower than the lowest low made.
If you ‘look and listen’ to the ‘gold bugs’: the general consensus of ‘buying back in’ seems to be at a price of around $1 300 before Gold ‘shoots’ for $2 000 and above. Just a side note is all.
When I said that I ‘see’ or ‘hear’ that the ‘gold bugs’ are waiting for a pullback to anywhere around $1 300 or $1 400 before ‘buying back in’ (and I know of at least one large fund manager who is ‘down’ over $800 million on his gold fund so you can bet HE is going to ‘average down’ given the opportunity): the point I was trying to demonstrate was that it’s odd that my (Wilder’s) lil 'ol Adam charts sort of ‘arrive’ (currently) at or around the same price range. And these are people (gold ‘specialists’ and the like) that I doubt very much have Wilder’s Adam Theory of Markets on their desk. (Then again: maybe they do and that’s why this book has ‘flown under the radar’ all this time)!!! LOL!!!
Just a thought I awoke with this morning. Sad that that is how I awake huh!!!
Sorry: I’ve never actually COUNTED the bars to any projected point. By the time I’ve strained my eyes aligning the two charts I cannot see straight!!! LOL!!! Also: they (obviously) change dynamically every time they’re ‘solved’ so I reckon at best one could sort of be ‘looking at or around’ that time. What I’m saying is that I doubt that it’s as simple as ‘calling the turn’ ‘to the day’ or ‘to the week’. But then again: I’m sure we’ll find out soon enough!!! LOL!!! Come to think of it: it would be very interesting to see if Wilder’s Delta Phenomenon confirms any Adam projections!!! But that’s a LOT of work. But I’ll see if I get to it. One very SIMPLE way really would be to see during which of the coming weeks there is a FULL MOON. Don’t laugh and don’t think I’ve ‘lost it’. That’s what Intermediate Term Delta is predicated on i.e. markets repeat themselves directly or inversely every four lunar months (there’s a bit more to it than that and there are different Delta time frames etc. but Intermediate Term Delta is the easiest to solve). WHO KNOWS??? To date: I’ve not found any reason to doubt anything Wilder has published. Why start now??? LOL!!! Just because I MYSELF don’t ‘get it’ all at first doesn’t mean it has no merit.
I have to say though and as simple as it is: I can see why this (Adam) actually does have merit. Not so much its ‘predictive’ ability (if any) but I’m starting to ‘see’ (mainly because of the weekly Gold chart and how its ‘panning out’) the logic (I THINK I am anyway and I suppose we’ll only know once Gold turns or rather once Adam SAYS it’s turned). When there’s no ‘predicted’ (actually that’s probably not a good word to use i.e. ‘anticipated’ may be a better word and give the system more credence). Once Adam indicates a turn (‘go with’ the market) and there is no more ‘anticipated’ pullback or ‘reaction’ past what would be your initial stop (which, I’m guessing, will be below the low of the turn) then it’s really just a ‘let it run’ type trade. From that point it’ll really be ‘just another trade’. You’ll move your (then profitable) stop to just under the next ‘anticipated’ pullback or ‘reaction’ and 'rinse and repeat until stopped out (and of course you’ll add to the position on the way).
Actually that’s another thing that has really ‘struck me’ (adding to a position Wilder’s way) and something that’s never occurred to me before i.e. Wilder’s method of adding to a position. It’s the first time I’ve seen it suggested that way and it just makes sense. Every other author or system that has required the adding to or ‘pyramiding’ in to a position has not had my ‘vote’ as it were. Some (like Bill Williams) and the Turtles advocate starting with a single position, then adding and adding and adding to the position if the trade moves in your favour (using different methods but ‘the game is the same’). ‘Bollocks’ has always been my opinion. What you’re in effect doing is immediately making your dollar average price WORSE and closer to the current price so that it only takes a few points (pips) to be stopped out (or your risk in magnified almost from the ‘get go’ with every new position added). The alternative that I’ve seen suggested is scaling out i.e. starting with multiple positions (a FULL position) and scaling out at certain intervals (this I CAN make sense of). The problem with that is that you may be trading a very long trend and be left with only one position open for the remainder and better portion of the trend. With Wilder’s method: you’re effectively only ever adding to a position (one less than your initial number of positions) only when your stop is already locking in profit. So the worst case scenario can ONLY be profit (obviously assuming that you dont get stopped out after the postion has just been opened). The BEST case scenario is that you’ll simply continue to add positions incrementally but by one less than the last one added and always will profit be locked in. So if you do the math (and assume, for example, that you started with ten positions): if you catch and ride a long term trend you could be riding that trend with a HUGE aggregate size position which could result in HUGE profits assuming all goes well while at the same time never over exposing yourself or exposing yourself to a loss. I mean it’s something really simple but a method I’d never even heard of nor considered up until now (and in all truth have started using it with his Swing Index System thus far with good results). ESSENTIALLY: it’s pretty much what R Carter noted to me a while back. Only add to a position or open a new position on another instrument once your current position is already in profit and profit is locked in. So simple to do but only when somebody vocalises it does one think about it. Alright: with Wilder you’re doing the same thing except that you’re always adding to a position where profit will STILL be locked in EVEN AFTER adding to the position.
So for me anyway: I’ve gotten MUCH out of this book (Adam aside). A lot of which one thinks, when reading it, IS (or should be) ‘no brainer’ stuff. But it’s only ‘no brainer’ stuff once you’ve actually seen it ‘put to paper’ (well that’s for me anyway).
Thanks for all your information and insights - really enjoyed reading your posts and would like to get into Adam (figuratively speaking of course) a bit more. I joined your web site but didn’t see anything about Adam there… LOL
So… where to from here? Should I stay here to discuss Adam concepts and observations or will you start a thread elsewhere?
daisygirl??? Alright: c’mon with the avatar picture now!!! LOL!!!
Thank you for the kind words. I appreciate them very much.
Yeh: this Adam ‘thing’ has become sort of ‘confusing’. I FIRST posted about it HERE because of the actual advice given and the insights given by Wilder in the book and the ‘rules’ hoping that it would save a few traders here from ruin. Then I decided to take a look at Adam itself and wasn’t prepared to experiment with an ‘unknown’ on something like the Dow so I started the experiment on EUR/USD and that’s how I ended up posting all the charts etc. here. The only thing about Adam on my forums is a copy of the very first post of this thread and a link to this thread and, of course, the book itself (but this you already know obviously). Sorry for the confusion.
I would say for us to carry on with Adam HERE until its been proved to have merit or not (so far so good to be honest). Then I’ll create a forum for it over there and we can ‘solve’ Adam for CFDs on the Indices, Futures, etc. What do you think???
And also (hopefully) by then: I’ll have been able to SOMEHOW code an ‘Adam Indicator’ too.