Something to ponder…
The appendix existed long before it was discovered.
The Earth rotated around the Sun far before it was discovered.
Because someone isn’t aware of the existence of something, does not imply that it did not exist. Trending is a part of human nature, or perhaps even a phenomena in trading. It was not “discovered” or given a name until it was first visible on a chart.
There was a time when the only data traders received was the daily open, high, low, close and volume. Online trading had not been invented. Online trading via the internet wasn’t even a concept or idea at that time.
Using the data available, traders could say with certainty that price was either up or down compared to the previous day close, previous week close, or previous month close. No debate. Stating that price is “trending” one way or another almost always leads to a debate because traders can use different starting points.
A trader can choose to trade based on a certainty or to trade based on something that is debatable. Please bare in mind the result of trading is never known for sure in advance ( unless you have inside information and even if you do, the result still isn’t a 100% certainty. )
hmmm… or nothing exists until the wave function is collapsed by an observer. IE. Shroedinger’s cat.
(I probably spelled that wrong didn’t I? )
And with this data, they hand drew charts and created formulas to determine market patterns. The patterns already existed. People were beginning to analyze them and give them names as these patterns became more evident.
Please stick to the subject of whether or not “trend”, as applies to trading, exists only in the mind of traders.
If “trend” is a phenomena then exactly what is “trend”?
Trend needs data from the past to exist? Is that to say “trend” only exists in hindsight?
Can you say with certainty that the current “trend” will continue for any length of time? If you cannot then how can you say the current “trend” exists in the first place?
It seems the empirical evidence is showing:
“trend” is debatable
“trend” needs historical data before it can be identified
“trend” can only be identified with certainty after the fact
“trend” cannot be precisely defined
The start of a “trend” is not known when it happens
The end of a “trend” is not known when it happens
Unless you are a butterfly dreaming you are a man.
And still most traders lose.
More empirical evidence.
That has already been established in this thread on multiple occasions. Feel free to review this thread to obtain the answer to this question.
All patterns in the market require past data to exist. Even your own methodology of trading relies on past data.
One cannot say that trend will exist over any extended period of time. Watching price will determine when a trend is coming to an end, and when a new one is beginning. Your second question doesn’t make much sense. A trend isn’t set in the future, it’s generated with past data to possibly determine the future movement of price. As is the case with all chart patterns. You cannot even trade your own methodology without past data. Is it to say that your methodology doesn’t exist in the first place?
Trend isn’t debatable. Trend exists. Direction of trend is what is up for debate.
True.
True.
Sure it can. And it already has been precisely defined in this very thread on more than one occasion.
False. That’s debatable to each trader.
False. That’s debatable to each trader.
Most traders lose. Period.
How does this relate to trend?
Let me amend:
The start of a “trend” is not known [I][B]WITH CERTAINTY[/B][/I] when it happens
The end of a “trend” is not known [I][B]WITH CERTAINTY[/B][/I] when it happens
End amendments.
“Trend” is debatable. Once again, you inferred incorrectly that I was talking about the existence of trend. One trader may say “trend” is up and another claim “trend” is down. Then the debate is on.
And at times, both traders can be right. Trends exist within trends. You can have an uptrend within a larger downtrend. And you can even have a downtrend within the uptrend that was within the larger downtrend.
If “trend” existed and was a reliable trading tool, then why do most traders lose? A prudent trader would use “trend” and be profitable. Books would be written about “trend”. “Trend” would be taught to beginning traders. And these traders would go on to have successful trading careers. Wouldn’t that be the logical progression of events if indeed “trend” existed and was a reliable trading tool?
Yes, like what you’ve done there with MMTT, definately worth more investigation / observation. Whether it makes for better entries than the LH, HL etc, time will tell. But that’s for a different thread. Although I like the use of TL’s for entry and exit on MMTT, so perhaps that belongs here… 
Like you said trend is a tool. It’s not a trending system in and of itself. It can help paint a better picture for the trader to assist in his decisions on which direction to enter into a trade.
I believe that it is not the trading systems, that traders develop that result in their losses. But rather how they trade. They fail to adhere to proper money management and risk assessment. They over trader. They apply too much risk in trades. They allow too much fear and too much greed to settle in.
It’s the psychology of a trader that ultimately determines his profitability. Trend has nothing to do with it.
How you trade right now, you could teach to a group of students to trade your methodology. Likewise, I could teach my methods as well. And regardless of what is being taught only 5-15% will walk out of that room and become profitable traders in our respective methodologies.
I repeat, trend has nothing to do with it.
Yes, yes, yes and yes again. That is it in a nutshell. Nice one MG.
That sounds like something a politician would say:
[I][B]
“Unemployment is going up, but unemployment is going down.”[/B][/I]
The current price may be up from point A, down from point B and up from point C and down from point D. What is the “trend”?
It seems like “trend” is like pornography, you can’t define it precisely but you know it when you see it and what’s pornographic is debatable.
Please refresh my memory… exactly where did I say “trend” was a tool? Do not mistake questions for declarative statements. Please take the time to read carefully before replying.
If “trend has nothing to do with it” then why is “trend” taught and used in the first place? I could infer that “trend” is superfluous from your statement.
Not superfluous. And not the be-all and end-all. Somewhere in between. MG is saying that the system a trader uses, in which “trend” can feature to a greater or lesser degree, is only a part of what makes a trader part of the 95%, or 5% club. There is nothing new in that statement, it’s been written about all over the place.
Taking the system part then (psychology being a separate thread, perhaps you want to start one?), mastering the use of “trend” as one of the tools has helped many a trader to become part of the 5% club. The majority of successful traders I know (who are a small % of the total number of traders I know) use “trend” as part of their system / decision making process. And they use it in such a way that the trend they use to base their decisions on is the most obvious one, relevant to where price is right there and then. If there isn’t an obvious one, or there are multiple which could be used, then time to stay out. It is only when you know, to a high degree of certainty (whilst accepting that nothing is absolutely certain), that a significant corpus of other traders will be seeing the same trend (seeing as in right there in front of them, living on their chart, in whatever colour they choose to highlight it with) you will look to enter a trade.
So if trend is a MYTH, are these traders in fact basing their trades on something else that they aren’t aware of? Are they all just repeatedly lucky, and in fact membership of the 5% club is down to fate, luck and other such things?
We can examine unemployment as an example. Not every industry goes down while as a whole it might. Some businesses are expanding and are hiring now employees
So there is an uptrend within a downtrend.
Trend is a tool taught to show market direction. It is not taught as a tool to ensure profitability. It is the best interest of all traders to obtain an idea of market direction.