The finest in trend trading - DEBUNKED

Jacko is a profitable trend trading trader and he likes trading with the trend. His losing trades were countertrend trades. So there is trader who can trade and is profitable using trend trading. :slight_smile:

For me I still stick to my own theory use both trend trading setups and non trend trading setups. As a trader, I like to thiunk out of the box and in the box as long as money can be made. :slight_smile:

Yes, repeatedly lucky based on the definition of luck that says if you cannot control the outcome and the outcome is favorable then it is luck.

That is what a politician would say to the unemployed.

If “trend” were a compass most people would get lost.

If “trend” shows market direction and is reliable, an entry with the current “trend” would always be profitable. Except all losses are explained away with “trend within a trend”.

From [I]The finest in trend trading[/I]:

Definitions :

A forward subtrend is 3 or more candles going in the same direction (higher lows/lower highs) as the main trend.

A retracement subtrend is 3 or more candles going against the direction of the main trend.

(We now set this in concrete)

They just keep adding in more “trends”.

The price is either going UP or DOWN. That happens no matter what the current “trend” is.

Then the politician would be accurate in saying that. Was there a further point you had to make it relation to what a politician has to say? Or can we continue to stay on track.

Your repetitive use of one liners are distracting and disparaging to this thread as they do not carry much substance to the debate. Is it possible that if you reply you do so with more relevant content? It would be much appreciated.

Most traders lose because they are ignorant, under capitalised, and playing a negative sum game.

As a group, new traders would achieve far better results simply by tossing a coin, and closing their trades at the end of the day. Over a large enough sample they’d break even minus transaction costs. However in reality, they do far worse than that. Its quite amazing really because without any knowlege and with almost no effort whatsoever they develop a significant negative edge through pure intuition and psychology, assisted by appallingly bad advice that they obtain from forums, books, mentors etc.

I’ve already pointed out that considering a single element of a trading methodology in isolation is a pointless exercise. If you gave most people a method that could perfectly predict tommorrows closing price, they’d still lose money. If you give a new trader a profitable method, they’ll lose money.

Many CTA’s will tell you that if you offer most people a managed account that returns 100% per annum, with limited drawdowns, then a significant number of their clients will still lose money.

Traders lose money for a whole host of reasons. When they finally gain an understaning of what important, and whats nonsense, many will still continue to lose, mainly because they are conditioned to lose, they fear self relience, and more importantly, subconsiously, they desperately want to lose.

Price goes from left to right, west to east. Hopping up and down like the easter bunny

Actually, it would appear that you and a couple others on this thread would be lost.

A long entry into an uptrend does not mean it will be profitable. There is much more to the equation that simply market direction. I was under the impression I already educated you on how that works. If you need clarification on a particular area, let me know and I’ll go over it again in more detail.

No, losses within a trend are not explained as you described. Simply because you lose a trend does not imply that you were trading against the trend. Or were caught within a trend inside of a trend.

Price moves up and down within any particular trend. Various traders have various points of entry and exit based on their particular trading methodologies. As a result, their differences vary in terms of profitability.

Once again, trend is a tool. Not a trading system or strategy on its own. Are you understanding that now? It seems you are a bit lost on that concept as you continually relate one’s profitability in relation to how one trades in a trend.

Price only goes up and down. You may use a chart and price appears to go left to right, west to east.

Do not confuse the map with the territory.

Wow! radical

Absolutely, but if I where forced to select one element of a strategy development to focus on, then it would probably be identification of trend(s).

Well, that what it might look like.

USDCAD: for the last 4 hours

Price respected:
round numbers 1.0500, quarter numbers 1.0475, last weeks open, last week Lo, previous day Open, previous day Hi, Hi from two days ago & Hi from three days ago.

The minute USDCAD broke through last weeks Lo it clocked milage.

The USDCAD charts will tell you.

USDJPY: Price made a new high by one pip, yesterday. As soon as it did that Price turned around & went down.

There are dozens & dozens more examples.

Trading EJ 123.32 Lo from two days ago & using it as a “fulcrum line”, yesterday has presented a trade opportunity every hour with a net gain of over 300 pips.

Some people don’t make that in a month drawing their “trend” lines.

Once you start [B]looking at price & start trading price[/B] without all that nonsense on your charts & in your head you’ll be profitable behind your wildest dreams.

[B]Trading is about making money & not intellectualizing![/B]

I quite frequently drive from the UK to Genova in Italy, passing through the Swiss alps. When your ascending and descending the mountains, the roads often turn back on themselves through 180 degrees. Amusingly this tends to play absolute havoc with the cars GPS system as it thinks I’m driving in the opposite direction to that required.

When you look at the map retrospectively, the roads quite clearly going from north to south, but at the time, you’ll find yourself driving north, south east, west and all points in between. You dont stop driving just because the cars temporarily pointing in the wrong direction, you have to have faith that the maps right. If the maps right, you end up where you want to be, if its wrong, or you take a wrong turn, then you get lost !

The same applies to trading trends, you cant get distracted by irrelevant information

Ok I get where you’re coming from now and you are right - talk about an abstract mind! Makes the thread even more pointless though. Luckily there has been some good chat about the use of trend anyway (outside of what you intended or wanted) so perhaps not a completely worthless exercise.

Thats about sums it up

Understanding where the trend is, and drawing a trend line, does not mean one cannot take advantage of the market in the manner of which you have described. I routinely trade against the trend. Though I generally trade with the trend for the most part. Would say its about a 30/70 ratio respectively.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but you as well are under the belief that the trend is a trading system in and of itself. Why is that? You realize it is nothing more than a mere tool designed to illustrate market direction.

Also, I fear you might be creating a false belief in people. Ditching the concept of trend will not get them any more closer or further away from becoming rich beyond their wildest dreams. This isn’t Amway friend. This is Forex.

Basically any reference that YOU have made to me has been a personal attack of either my education, experience, etc…

Before you click the SUBMIT REPLY button, read over your post and remove any reference to an individual. That should eliminate any personal attack.

I am not going to play your game as you try to derail this thread.

LOL Forex can clean you out to

Whoa whoa whoa Mr Excitable. That to me is a long list of areas to consider. And as you looked at this pair (or any pair) through the timeframes you would be able to add a whole lot more areas where price broke through or reversed - 4 hour high, 1 hour high, 5 min high…etc etc. Why should any of these levels be relevant, or not? Which is more relevant? Why is this list of possibilities any different to the numerous trends you refer to and have tried so hard to debunk? Your way of trading is as subjective as any other, just you use horizontal lines instead of ones with an angle.

The best methods of trading use a confluence of reasons to trade, and don’t care which is the best, accepting that each adds to the possibility of a trade being a winner. By doing so you are increasing the pool of traders likely to trade in “your” direction. If you use just one your odds decrease, as the pool of like minded traders is smaller.

Get off that high horse and learn to accept there is more than one way to skin a cat.