The finest in trend trading - DEBUNKED

Beginner Questions
70

A reversal from the higher highs and lower lows. :wink:

71

Let me be precise… when I say “time frame independent” that means no matter what time frame you are looking at, the answer or result is the same. You can be looking at a monthly chart but the weekly open, today’s high and today’s low are still going to have the same value. That should clear that up so now we can move on.

73

From “Webster’s”:

Main Entry: 2trend
Function: noun
Date: circa 1777

1 : a line of general direction or movement <the trend of the coast turned toward the west>
2 a : a prevailing tendency or inclination : drift <current trends in education> b : a general movement : swing <the trend toward suburban living> c : a current style or preference : vogue <new fashion trends> d : a line of development : approach <new trends in cancer research>
3 : the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change; also : a statistical curve reflecting such a change
synonyms see tendency

So… From the dictionary, not only does trend mean a continuation, it can also mean a drift towards a new direction. We only have two directions. However, we have a variety of time frames.

Using the accepted definition, from the most respected source, the conclusion can be only this.

Because traders can’t agree on a direction doesn’t mean a directional move, aka “trend” doesn’t exist, it would more likely be the difference between the length of time they each believe that directional move will sustain itself.

75

Well, let’s get specific.

Price does two things.

[B]Higher highs & higher lows[/B]

[B]Lower highs & lower lows[/B]

visible as peaks & troughs on any TF you wish to choose.

Why in god’s name would you try to put that [U]label trend[/U] on it?

76

You havn’t proven anything or debunked anything, basically everything you said amounts too, “trend only exsists in the traders mind.” Which simply isn’t true.

There are very specific techniques for actually trading trends. Anyone can look at a chart and tell you if it is in a trend or not. The real tricks are getting a good entry and staying in for as much profit as possible.

Plenty of people in this thread have countered your presumption that trends don’t exsist with undeniable facts and logic, but you choose to ignore them, especially when you have no valid counter argument.

And No, I did not attack you personally I disagreed with you and pointed out how absolutely rediculous it is to say trends dont exsist. I also pointed out that IMO someone who would think like that, and actually believe it, has either failed at attempts to trend trade and or most likely never really traded for real in their life.

If you don’t want people to counter your mistaken beliefs and point out when you are wrong, then you shouldn’t post on a forum where banter is allowed.

77

For the ease of a conversation, it’s a commonly understood description of a directional move.

Why else would you call it anything else?

If you feel so inclined, here’s a few more options. Aim, bearing, bent, bias, course, direction, drift, inclination, leaning, movement, orientation, progression, run, swing, tendency, tenor.

While we’re at it, throw “flow” in there too.

78

I see, the geniuses opened another thread, recently. “Price can go up or down” must be spoken out of a genius, don’t? Plus who throws Mr. Heisenberg in, must be one, too.

Well, while Mr. Heisenberg contributed some strong formulas to the public, can’t see anything right here. Even chaos theory has more substance. I can’t see trend debunked anywhere. Well, I’m getting older and maybe blind, ha ha.

  1. To say trend lies in the mind of the trader does not debunk anything. It just backs it up.

  2. While I see Mr. Heisenberg softly rotating, I miss in general the first part of a new world breaking fundamental theory with sort of strong formulas: Defining, what a trend is.

  3. That some systems don’t need time frames doesn’t mean time doesn’t exist. It is indeed very important, at which time a trade is entered or exited. Wouldn’t we agree with that would we?

So, I am looking forward that you guys define what a trend is, before the trial to debunking sets it.

Until then I will take a seat near Master Tang to watch what happens. :slight_smile:

79

Why? Because it’s an appropriate label. It’s a useful tool. And used by the right trader is EXTREMELY profitable. If price continously moves up strongly, it’s an up trend, if price continuously moves down strongly it’s a downtrend.

Choose to think trends are not real, and not recognize them and even not use the word trend, but you will pay for it when you trade.

You aren’t doing anything novel or new or debunking anything or being discovering some truth that other traders havn’t happened upon. Bascially what you and xtraction are doing is spouting nonsense and trying to sound intellectual and witty. Frankly, I think the both of you only argue this, simply to argue and take offense to real traders disagreeing with you and pointing out how foolish the whole premise is.

This nonsense that trend is a, “myth,” can only confuse and hurt new traders naive enough to believe it.

And noob traders aren’t losing because they believe in the, “myth,” of trends. You can call a cow a horse, but it’s still a cow and will do everything that a cow does despite whatever name you call it by or even if you choose to say a cow is a myth.

80

The definition is not precise because it is subject to interpretation. That proves my point that “trend exists only in the mind of the trader.”

True we only have two directions yet “trend” can’t be agreed upon.

Look at each definition:

  1. is not precise and hence, is subjective. No starting point given.

  2. is not precise and hence, is subjective. No starting time or point given.

  3. is not precise and hence, is subjective. No starting time given.

The definition of “trend” is vague.

82

I wouldn’t.

83

Show proof that it is not true. If “trend” exist then there should be a precise definition that if different people apply it, they get the same results. If that can’t be done, then “trend” is a nebulous concept. That implies it exists only in the mind of the observer.

One can prove gravity exists. Prove “trend” exists.

84

I have countered everything with logic and shown the fallacy of the other posters’ logic.

I would be happy to revisit any logical proof that “trend” exists.

I am willing to entertain the notion that “trend” can only be identified AFTER THE FACT but that puts us into quantum theory which may leave many readers scratching their heads.

85

There is no subjective alternative to the definition. It means both a continuation, AND a different tact.

Bottom line, here’s a big difference.

Tymen1 will eventually give someone a way to use a directional move to make money.

This thread has done nothing but argue the semantics of those methods.

If you really want to debunk “trend”, show people a way to make money off of a flat market.

heads off to the grass, and cracks a beer for Buckscoder

This should get interesting:D

87

Any real trend trader worth his salt will tell you trying to exact pick tops and bottoms is a fantasy at best.

So, is your argument about trend based on the fact that you can’t predict and thus enter and exit on the exact beginning/end of a trend?

Sounds like it. If so you don’t have the first clue about trend trading. Rule number 1 of trend trading is not to try to predict the exact point of a trends start and try to enter at what would in hindsight be the golden moment of entry.

Trends aren’t subjective, they either are or are not, how a traders uses them is subjective. Your argument is pooly thought out and makes no logical sense.

You look for established trends, try to find a good entry on a retrace and stay in for as long as you can.

Since you are so hung up on exact word meanings, the very word trend doesn’t imply a prediction of the future, it simply states that there has a been a prevailing, “trend,” of events in the past. X has already happened Y amount of times in a row, that is a trend.

For instance is has been very cold the last few weeks where I live, that is a trend. How a trader chooses to use that is his own choice. If I could not just look out the window, I could reasonably assume that since it’s been cold the last few weeks it will be cold the next time I go outside and better wear a coat. The trend gave me valuable information, which helped me decide a way to act.

88

That was civilized I merely pointed out how silly the belief was. That is a disagreement. Not a personal attack. If you take disagreement personally then you shouldn’t post on a forum where someone who actually knows what they are talking about will disagree with you.

89

Actually, time is a concept too. In some cultures, time does not exist. Before and after are concepts. But I digress.

The debunking comes from the fact that you can not define “trend” precisely.

It would be nice if the posts from the “trend” crowd offered proof that “trend” exists. That is where the focus should be. Furthermore, if you are truly of the belief that “trend” exist, you should be joining me in trying to show that it doesn’t exist to prove your point that it does. That’s the scientific method.

The scientific method is a way to ask and answer scientific questions by making observations and doing experiments.

The steps of the scientific method are to:

* Ask a Question
* Do Background Research
* Construct a Hypothesis
* Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
* Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
* Communicate Your Results
91

One would have to wonder why this hasn’t been done before. Most mutual funds do not beat the index. I think they may be interested in “a way to use a directional move to make money.”

92

Theres no Quantum theory about it, lol (I get you now, you are one of those guys that like to try to make himself look clever by trying to make a complicated explanation for everything).

Look, just admit you don’t have a clue about trend trading. You’ve already make the mistaken assumption that trend traders try to predict exact tops and bottoms. And because that can’t be regulary done you then presume trends are a myth because they can’t be precicely predicted?

Again that is rediculous. I guess price action doesn’t exsist either because you can’t predict exactly when it goes up or down, thus it’s subjective, thus it’s a myth? By your twisted logic, it is.

You look on a chart and a trend of events has happened over and over along x span of time.

If you want to, “revisit,” any logical proof that trend exsists simply read the post from real traders that countered your presumption and actually try to understand it instead of brushing it off because someone dared to disagree with you.

97

[B][I]This nonsense that trend is a, “myth,” can only [U]confuse and hurt new traders[/U] naive enough to believe it.[/I][/B]

Quite the opposite.
If you care to read this post linked below.

Tell me something new. :stuck_out_tongue:

http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/29902-technical-templates-continued-11.html

98

Time isn’t just a concept it does pass. How a being gauges and or percieves the passage of time is the concept.

When someone is having fun they will often percieve time is moving faster, when they are uncomfortable it will seem to move slower, but the same amount of time has passed regardless of if you recognize the passage of time or call it by another name.

There is much you think you understand, but do not. You are out of your depth.