Comm are selling on an uptrend because they are selling more and more expensive. When they reach an [B]extreme net short[/B](on 4-5 years chart) we know a swing high is near…so we are looking for shorts,but we need to wait a confirmation which is MF/MS turn from bullish to bearish.After that we can start looking for shorts.We don`t need to catch the swings.Sorry for my english…
Yes that is what i meant, and i do not try to catch the tip’s or bottom’s. What i was saying is that, i look for the position’s which are in sync with COT and MF/MS.
If Commercials are Net Short Why on earth you want to be Net Long?! wanna sit in front of a train?..
You either saying it wrong (meant it to be the other way around),
or
GLGT.
Being in sync with the COT for intra-day trade is just for extra peace of mind really, wont help you that much.
bear in mind 2 things:
-
the information on the COT is almost a week old by time you get hold of it. The snapshot is taken on Tuesday, it is published by CFTC and available to you on Friday afternoon. So realistically you can use it Monday the earliest. No quite up to date, huh
-
if Comm’s are Net Short, this does not mean price will go only down without any retracements
So, as you can see, not the greatest strategy to blindly follow the Comm’s. Especially ineffective for intra-day trading
The way ICT uses it, look for extreme readings on 1 and 4 year basis and that will give you overall trend to get in sync with. So, for example comms are Extreme short. this means form this moment trend is bearish, so shorts is the better choise )higher success odds), but does not meant money cant be made buying. Trend stays long term bearish until a new extreme 4 yr Long position is registered and so on…
hope this suffice, but as the others recommended, watch Michael’s videos on the matter, if still struggle, search for Larry Williams’ materials…
This is what i meant. When Comm’s are net short or Long, it makes a ITH or ITL and we look for the long/short opportunities. Not going against them.
I wasn’t talking about swing trade or such but intra-day. Only taking Short opportunities as they are present in that particular week.
Isn’t COT supposed to be used longer term?
what I’m saying (and not only I), the COT has very little meaning in [U]intra-day trading[/U], this is just an extra filter you can impose to yourself as a measure against overtrading, but again, it will only reduce the number of trades you taking and nothing more…
Yes, and there’s a point here, it’s the difference between, thinking what happens from here and anticipating what might happen at a certain level because of it.
Understanding this is crucial to trading, keeping an open mind, there may be traders that trade like that, but if you do, you have to know that that is what you’re trading, but if not you must anticipate levels.
Got that Bro. So it seems like COT is not much useful for Intraday. Thanks for the reply and sry for bothering with my silly questions.
Silly questions are how we all learn, thks for asking it 
That is NOT a silly question, I’ve seen silly questions I don’t have much time for them anymore, and that is not one of them.
Just using the OP’s own adjective, not mine.
Good discussion, I noticed that there might be a correlation between, a big change in dealers positions, but I couldn’t figure how to apply it to what I do.
PPFX you have a methodical mind, I’ve seen that in your programming of your (imo excellent) indi
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/46764-inner-circle-traders-pro-traders-club-2012-2013-series-34.html
Can I sense a new indi in the making?
No, ABSOLUTELY NOT, I don’t believe in indicators, divergence doesn’t exist, and a higher timeframe is a state of existence:D
I believe in Angels !!!
Any ideas?
Okay. Now after studying ICT material’s over and over again. I thought I’d try the October month trading using swing high’s/low’s,support&resistance and all the tool’s we use for intraday and nothing much more than that.
Ict actually explained it in the Inside the Range webinar.
I was getting so confused with the COT and all the other stuff which made my trading more complicated.
Like ICT gave a method to Piphanger to trade. I will be trading with the above stated method this month and will post the result’s every week.
Look up the meaning of the name Michael in Hebrew
(seems Alan and Peter are not so unalike)
If i am not mistaken “Piphanger” through in the towel. I hope it was just emotions getting better of him and that he will bounce back from his weak state of mind, "what does not kill you can only make you stronger. "