20 pips
it was my first try with this:D
your right about it being hard to know when to close a trade.
I am in USD/JPY right now I will watch the 1hr BB to try to get out at a better place:D
the EA is very difficult to do… i guess.
i would like to be able to see the dailly MA channel in the 5m chart.
This is somewhat in the ballpark of what you want…just using envelopes
Daily is on the left, 5 min on the right.
The envelopes applied are 576 periods.
Because theres 288 5min candles in 1 day, and we want to plot a “2 period” daily moving average. So 576 would count 2 days worth of 5 min candles.
Not quite exactly the same as the Daily 2SMA but close enough.
Yes this is what I mean. It’s easy to look at past price action and spot the big, obvious winners, but in practice things are a bit more difficult. The attached chart is the EURUSD from yesterday which a couple of people took I think. But as indicated with the arrows, there was an initial break of the 2MA (red line on chart) and very quickly what could be described as lower highs, but which would have been stopped out.
The second series of lower highs was the good trade, and a big one at that, but would you have taken the first…??
I’ve also added AUDUSD from the 28th, again red line shows the daily MA cross and the red arrows all show possible short trades, dependant on your definition of a lower high, all of which would have been stopped out. How many trades do you give it before you give up?
Apologies they are a bit hard to make out, but you should be able to see what I mean.
HI. in your first chart i would probably open the two trades., in your second chart i can´t see none clear move, it looks alot like noise… but the only way to trade is real time, in backtest we never now how would we react.
I think you would take both based on the rules, I think I did.
Keep in mind this system comes into play in an overbought or oversold situation. The MA on the daily just makes it easier to see when price is at an extreme point. When price is at the outside of its range it will usually move back to center. Pretty simple concept but impossible to predict exactly when and how much.
You are looking for a reversal(predicting) not jumping into an established trend(like most systems), its discretionary I watch the trade if it looks like it might be a fake out I try to close it at BE or a small profit. once you have some momentum and some distance from your open you can trail a stop or move your stop to BE. Most of the trading I do is counter trend like this. I find it best to accept you will not get you entry right every time. Sometimes I will open a trade not like what its doing close it and later open a trade at just about the same price when it looks like the reversal is starting again.
with tomorrow being new years eve I’m not trading. too much going on. My one trade today I caught most of the up move on GU. I like this ruilima system though, will give it a good go starting first thing next year!
Nice work on the GU!
I like this system and True PA and the BB thread all seem to come up with similar trades. since they are all really PA based they work on every time frame to some extent I like that.
Guess thats the point, it’s easy to spot the “good” moves e.g. the lower high followed by a big drop, but in periods of “noise”, in real-time, things are different. And it only appears to be noise after it has happened! What kind of success rate have you had with the system overall?
I do like this kind of system, PA based and trading the false-breakouts / reversals rather than trying to catch the trend, fairly similar to the False London Breakout system elsewhere in the forum.
You took a really simple system and made it look complicated with that chart. Like Ruilima22 said sometimes you need to look like a trader;) I am sure some will like it. It looks like you could trade this systems rules with that chart. I will stick to a simpler looking set up myself.
the chart posted above looks very complicated. would like to see some explantions.
next monday i back to my desk and start to trade again.
i need to make the money i spend in the hollidays:D
i´ll try to post some charts of bad trades i took to show that lose trades are normal and may not interfier with the dailly profit ratio.
no one can win all the trades but everyone can cut the losses with 20 pips or less and let the winning trades run to 80 pips or a lot more.
that´s what i do with this system. i don´t win everytime, but at the end of the day my account is always bigger than in the morning… and that´s what really metter.
i don´t try to win everytrade but i try to win everyday.
right now my account is over 11000$. this year i´ll take some money and will keep in my account 5000$. my objective for the year is made my first million. i guess i need to double my account 9 times. if i accouplish that objective i will invite all the babypips users to a party next new year eve:D