The next delay will be put down to the fact he had to donate a testicle to an orphan from Somalia
Hi Guys
Sorry for the intrusion, it’s been a long time since I posted, but I can’t shake this funny feeling that the car painter is in fact ICT. Maybe its because he thinks anyone who calls him out is full of hatred for him, or maybe it’s because he very generously complimented the folks on the Pro traders club thread, yet insults everyone else on the forum.
His core framework that he pointed out is very generic as well, but let’s ask him if uses fibs and pivots as well.
Anyway, it’s Friday so maybe I’m just stirring…yes I am.
Now we know why the web site launch is late
God you don’t even know you’re doing it do you?
I’ve always found him to be a very polite, helpfull kind of guy personally. I think you’ll find a helluva lot of other people on here have too. Dunno what could have got his back up about you John, you being so pleasant and all !!
Doing what? (I guess I don’t)
There’s a very good chance he could be one of any number of banned ex-members. This place seems to be a magnet for that kind of thing.
As you say, the core base of his presented set up is nothing new. You have to wonder then why so many waste so much more of their time going out of their way to complicate such a simple technical structure by piling it up with totally unecessary baggage.
Not difficult to see why so many try & so few succeed.
Recently I have started adding some indicators and MA’s on to my charts. (10, 20, 50, 125, and 200 period EMA’s) Please don’t get into the pros and cons of doing that just now, that’s not the point of this post. We’ll get into that later between now and the weekend.
Anyway, right now I’m working on NOT entering a trade unless the MA’s are in the “proper order”. ie 10 above the 20, 20 above the 50, 50 above the 125 and so on for an uptrend, and obviously the reverse for a downtrend.
As you can see from the picture above, the GBP/NZD has been in a downtrend for a while and the EMA’s were showing in the proper order to support this. That said, yesterday’s daily close printed a hammer, possible reversal. But the thing that was keeping me out of the long was the EMA’s.
Drop down to the 1 Hour chart:
After the low of the daily hammer, price had started to retrace, 10 EMA had crossed back above the 20 EMA and was now looking to cross above the 50, but hadn’t done so yet. Price had however been moving slowly up on the 1 Hour.
So I entered long at 1.7865, , targeted the R1 on the daily pivot (1.7910) and placed my stop at 1.7840, which is 2% of my account.
As you can see from the 15 min chart I got taken out of the trade, almost exactly to the number before price did move back up closer to my target, albeit without hitting it yet.
I know the EMA method may well make me miss out on a lot of trade entry signals, but so far it has kept me trading only in the direction of the trend, and this has been my only losing trade this week.
Without going back down a road which is overly trampled by now, I’d rather talk about the good bits and the bad bits about that, or any other trade, rather than how I feel about it.
It’s a good thread, but hardly a new idea, quit acting like the Messiah!
Hardly, I just thought you risked clouding your underlying good message through being too aggressive so spoke up. It’s a discussion forum, I discussed, we’re allowed to disagree. Speaking of hatred and people despising one another suggests that you’re the one being overly serious. It does remind me of ICT, though!
Lol. Harsh but alarmingly plausible.
Sorry, conscious that I owe you a PM on all this stuff - it just defeated me on my 'phone, sorry. I have not forgotten! Again. As you’ll see from this double post, I can’t even multi-quote between pages on this thing.
I’ll take my compliments where I can get them, Thank-you!
Lol you’re welcome!
Lol you’re welcome!
Don’t sweat the PM mate. Might just throw the question out tonight and have your answer in public rather than drag you through a PM and then have to re-write it on the thread again.
Just a wee bit cautious on the wording of it all as I said for fear of offending.
RC I’ll look forward to that. Would be great to get your input into the whole price action versus indicators thing that I spoke to ST about recently which as you may have spotted in the post above, I’ll be throwing a question out about it all hopefully this evening as well, in between watching the golf that is.
Just before I start this post I’d like to firstly add that I’m not having a go at any trading method here, I’m only asking a question, hopefully to get a few opinions.
Recently I’ve been reading a book called - Forex Patterns and Probabilities by Ed Ponsi. I’m halfway through the book and so far Mr Ponsi has imparted two, quite basic trading strategies to his audience. One of which involves the “proper order” of some moving averages, (EMA’s).
Now the proper order looks like this:
As you can see there is a 10, 20, 50, 125 and 200 period EMA. (Ed Ponsi doesn’t have a 125 EMA in his book, I just added it in to give me a halfway point between the 50 and the 200). In an uptrend, as pictured, the 10 would be above the 20, 20 above the 50, 50 above the 200. The reverse would be true for a downtrend.
His strategy involves favourable price action, confirmed by the proper order of the moving averages, further confirmed by RSI, which helps you trade only in the direction of the trend, ie if they all point up, don’t take shorts, if they all point down, don’t go long.
This after a while, threw up a question to me. For quite some time now, the most favoured “technique” of trading on the forum has been price action trading. No indicators, lines, bells, whistles or dancing girls, just clean bare charts. There are those that promote it, those that trade it and those that trade it successfully.
We’re all reminded that ALL indicators lag price, and the ONLY indicator that truly reflects price is price itself. Hard to argue with that really. Newbies are regularly told, “If you want to see what price is doing, look at price.” And I think they probably do. But does that really help them?
For isn’t it true, that for years and years, some very, VERY successful traders have used a myriad of indicators to help them accumulate fabulous wealth? In fact, isn’t it true that some of those very successful traders actually INVENTED some of the more popular indicators.
Bollinger Bands, Elliot waves, Fibonacci, Gartley patterns all named after the inventors and traded successfully by some to this very day.
Ichimoku, Moving averages and MACD, all used successfully by traders every trading day of the year.
Chris Capre (not having a go Chris, just using you as an example, apologies if I offend in any way) has a thread on this site called Understanding Price Action. The very first chart posted on that thread has a 20 EMA on it. Isn’t that an indicator?
Isn’t the ability to trade PURE price action a skill learned by many hours of chart watching?
Let me put it like this, if I was to give you two tips for two separate horse races, which one would you be more likely to take?
The first tip would be, in the 3.30 race there are 5 runners. If I was you I’d bet my money on horse number 1, called Bullet, 'cos he looks great.
The second tip would be, in the 3.50 race there are 5 runners, If I was you I’d bet my money on horse number 1, called Rocket, 'cos horse two only has 3 legs, horse 3 is blind, horse 4 is Asthmatic and horse 5 is 357 years old.
Which tip would you be more likely to take??
Having said all of that, it is important for new traders, or any trader in fact, to guard against “overkill” or overloading your charts with so many indicators that your chart begins to look like a Jackson Pollok.
I’ve always liked Pivot Points on my chart, in analyzing the EU pair previously I have found the % of price moving beyond a certain level and sometimes use this in my decisions.
I’ve recently put Ed Ponsi’s noted EMA’s on my charts, which may make me miss out on opportunities, but helps me trade with the trend. In fact, the only trade I lost this week was this morning’s GBP/NZD which traded against the direction of the EMA’s on the daily chart.
Now before I go any further, I’m NOT saying trading Price Action alone doesn’t work, for I know there are people who do trade it alone and trade it well. All I’m saying is, I think it may actually be a harder skill to learn than the use of a few good, properly understood and used indicators.
Obviously taking the time to properly understand the use and limitations of any indicator, and adding them 1 at a time, only AFTER you know how to use them, is of paramount importance. And I don’t advocate making a decision based on any 1 indicator alone.
Surely price action is the first indicator that a possible set up is, or is about to, unfold. You wouldn’t take a trade by looking only at the MACD, but to me there are a load of different strategies, methods and combinations that are being used everyday, to achieve the same result.
More than 1 way to skin a cat I believe the expression is. All you have to do is find a combination that stacks the odds in your favour, one that works again and again given a confluence of the signals they provide and then have the confidence to trade it when that confluence appears.
Easy then eh?
LOL well maybe not easy, but by no means impossible or, for that matter, improbable.
LOL RC !! I’ve only read this much so far and already I’ve felt compelled to respond to this my friend. Surely that is the first time in history the words “noble” “art” and “Rugby” have all been used in the same sentence???
I would have thought the words, “My client” “apologises” and “M’lud” may have been more likely to appear in a sentence alongside rugby 
To be honest RC, I never really got much further with the 3 ducks than the “having a peek” stage.
One question that immediately springs out to me is that I have read you talk about HA candles before and just wondered if you use HA exclusively rather than “ordinary” candles and if so what advantages you think think they give?
Ok EDIT: Do you believe it is possible to trade price action totally alone in the first place?
Mr Carter, i feel like we’re about to crack open a chamber of secrets here…
I apologize in advance for butting in here but im just curious - Ive seen you post some awesome trades, and truly i stare at my charts for hours on end wandering what it is you see that makes you feel to take it…
Im much more of a visual learner so im gonna be a pain, and well since you offered to ask for possibly a couple of charts?
Ideally, and since you mentioned them, why long at 4930, and why counter trend short at the 1.54?
The bearish ride the GU took this year honestly just kept me staying away from it until my bias has recently changed to bullish on the pair. Im trying to stick with the whole - trade with the trend, but after the drop that took i couldnt help but think surely how much lower could it go?! The thoughts in itself just kept me away until i saw something more solid… But yeah, just curious as to what you saw at the 4930 that made you think GU has reached a bottom, and what you saw intraday for GU to be due a retracement…
Apologies if im probing too hard - but as ive heard my mum reiterate all my life, “You don’t ask, you don’t get!”
You may have to be quick Sanj, I think the only thing RC has his heart set on “cracking open” tonight is another pear cider LOL!
But since we have you here, and Mr Carter and I have been discussing the use of indi’s, which ones, if any, do you use and why?
Hijack away RC, after all, isn’t the pub the place where the conversation can go from trading to dancing girls to polar bears in the space of a pint?
EDIT: That said, it’s off to bed for me now boys. Been a long day already with a longer one to come tomorrow.
Steady as she goes with the pear ciders Mr Carter, talk to you both later.
HoG