The VIPER Couch

Beginner Questions Trading Psychology
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Hear Ye, Hear Ye, Let’s talk about brain bugaboos. First some ground rules.

I will be the benevolent dictator on this thread, I will not argue, if you disagree fine, but I will not try to convince you that you are wrong. If you troll, I will report the post. No profanity or sexual innuendo please.
I am NOT a health care professional, nor a Dr. of anything, I am a trader. If you have serious mental health issues please seek professional help, and not Sum Dum Gai like me on the internet.
First some stories

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The Bald Weasel

The Bald Weasel is an interesting guy with an interesting story, I knew him for years, and only by chance did I find out that besides his day job, he was involved in futures trading. Anywho, we would talk from time to time and he would always present himself as this successful trader who was an even better teacher. Now one thing I did know for a fact was that he had a gift of gab like you would not believe, it was like the Blarney Stone was permanently implanted up has butt (this is something that all Gurus and Wanna be Gurus have in common).

So over the years he was able to weasel his way into various small trading houses, and training services like Pristine. This allowed him access to free Bloomie and Reut terminals, trading platforms, etc. So you can imagine my surprise when one day he called me in a panic, “VIPER, my broker just stole almost 8k from my trading account, these guys have no mercy, they have no mothers, I can’t believe it”. When I asked him what happened he said that there were trades that showed up on his blotter and he knew that he did not take. I told him to calm down, after some cajoling, he finally chilled. Knowing who his broker was, I then asked him if he realized that the times listed on his blotter were listed GMT+1, Frankfurt, I was greeted with silence, then a tirade of cursing and screaming. You see what he had done each day for four days in a row, was leave orders open, rather than hitting “cancel all orders” button at the end of the day.

But wait there is more, the next day I get a call, “VIPER, I need some calls man, I gotta get this money back, my wife is gonna freak when she finds out, come on man gimme something”. I told him,” Dude, it doesn’t work like that, it is summer and things are slow, besides I am trading Qs and you are on ES”. Well he finally crashed and burned, saying things like “sometimes you have to go crazy in these markets, and take random trades”. Well 5k later it was over, 12k out of a15k account, one really, really mad wife, and the realization he could not trade.

In subsequent conversations with him, I found out that he had Mommy and Daddy issues. I could see this was affecting his trading. I tactfully asked at one point if he had ever thought of professional help to mitigate some of the anger control issues. His reply, “what anger control issues”? Egad, really, ok.

The lesson: The markets are a mirror, when we look at our blotter at the end of the day we see our personality, do we have self-control or not, are we in control of ourselves, or are the markets controlling us. It is hard, especially for men to accept their weaknesses, but acceptance and change are necessary for all traders. There are no machos in trading, no snipers, no Special Forces, or top guns etc. Only people who can trade will survive, remember, the only constant is change and adaptation, and if you don’t think so, welcome to the 98%.

Do Not Trade With Unresolved Psychological Issues

The Ever “One More Day Down The Spiral” VIPER

Next time, Sai Lo, or The Kid

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#2
The Kid

The Kid was someone who started trading in the early 2000’s. He actually did pretty well in his first year trading live, he broke even. After that year he started to have some real issues that were adversely affecting his trading. Every time he had a negative trade, he started to feel a sense of hopelessness. He talked to me about this feeling, knowing that I also had to overcome some hefty brain bugaboos. I asked if it was a feeling or was he connecting this negative trade to something else, he asked me, “connecting to what”, dude how am I supposed to know, but your reaction to a loss is waaayyyy more than just a simple loss. Well, as time passed, he had a particularly negative day, five negative trades in a row, and on the last trade he started crying uncontrollably, and while he was sobbing he kept saying “why did that last trade leave me”. As he was recounting this to me, he started to tear up, and then he gave me the money line, “ I kept saying the same thing over and over again until it morphed into, why did my Dad have to leave me, why did he leave me all alone”.

He realized that, for some reason, the negative trades were connecting with his parents’ divorce when he was about eight years old, his Father didn’t have much to do with him afterward and he felt abandoned. The interesting thing is that once he faced this, and realized this was the problem, his trading got better, his home life got better, and he is still trading profitably to this day. Did he reach a state of “Clear” as Tom Cruise would say? No, he still has to keep an eye on himself to make sure that those negative connections in his brain stay disconnected, but since he realized what the problem was, he was able to manage it.

The Lesson: You will have Bugaboos, but remember, it’s not about our handicaps, it’s about how we deal with them. To deny, ignore, and blame others is the failure; it does not make you a failure as a person to admit and work to overcome a frailty, it makes you a better person and possibly a better trader…

The Ever Bettering Himself VIPER
Next: Things to look for that will ensure your failure as a trader.

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Thanks for the post, it was very surreal and straightforward.

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Viper- if you don’t mind I’d like to contribute my own to your list.

#3 The Mental Patient

I’m 33. I was born as a High-Functioning Autistic and developed Bipolar Disorder with Major Depression about 20 years ago. I’m intelligent enough that new people I meet often ask me what college I went to. But I didn’t. I graduated high school and proceeded on a cycle of destroying everything in my life from college, two engagements, twenty-five jobs, drug abuse, alcohol abuse, homelessness, suicide attempts; and all the other fun things that go along with having undiagnosed mental illness. It wasn’t until I was 29 that I was diagnosed after a particularly dark psychotic break.

Being diagnosed was the greatest day of my life. It was the day I was able to finally see that I wasn’t just a broken, screwed up waste of life. I had an illness that could be managed and I could have a life similar to normal people. And I set out to do exactly that. Though I couldn’t hold a 9-5 job very well, I did alright doing various freelance things around on the internet for different people. One of them introduced me to forex and I immediately saw the potential.

As a HFA, my brain is exceptional with logical processes and analysis but struggles with social endeavors. I knew right away I would excel at Technical Analysis but suck at Fundamental. As a Bipolar, I know that my mind can be reduce to sludge in no time. After some study; I realized that trading on the daily charts was perfect because it was so hands off. I analyze for about an hour, place my trades; then I’m done til the next day.

Trying to Scalp or low time frame increment trade wasn’t going to end well because the constant stress “could” spin my brain out. I decided on an established Stop and Take Profit in Trend Trading so I would not be tempted to jockey around my position if my brain decided it was time to get emotional about things. Bad decision making is not only typical but expected as a Bipolar. Though I can be erratic from the Disorder; the HFA side of me keeps me anchored to logic to the point that I’ve been able to logic my way out of unwell periods.

I soon found that I was in a very good position psychologically to deal with the rigors of trading. Since I haven’t had much of anything during my adult life until the past few years; losing a trade or two doesn’t phase me. While I don’t long for the days when I skipped eating for days or lived under a tree; it’s ultimately just money and its loss means very little to me compared to…well pretty much most of everything else I’ve been through in my life.

I would love to be able to understand this well enough and simplify a trading strategy to make it easily teachable to other broken like me. People that are mostly functional or can’t do physical work anymore. Yes, I’ve been learning this to put money in my own pocket, but I’ve been doing it just as much to put it in the pockets of others as well. Some folks that I’ve talked to have noticed I spend a lot of time talking to newbies and answering their posts. That’s a big reason why. I want to see people have better lives than I had for most of mine. I think Forex is a way to do that.

I’ve been trading forex for about 2 years now. About six months ago everything finally began to click together and I steadily climbed out of what I lost while learning.

The Lesson: You can make your faults work for you. I know myself, my strengths, my faults; and I accommodated them in my trading plan and strategy. Perseverance and tenacity are the most important qualities in any push for success. I screwed up plenty and lost my share of money in the learning phase. But I stuck through it and pushed through to the other side. You can too. Just keep putting one foot in front of the other until you reach your destination.

And if you are struggling- come on now. You’re not going to be passed up by a nutcase are you? :wink:

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Please don’t take this the wrong way but I have to contribute here and say that bipolar disorder and trading seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

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I don’t take it wrong at all. You are absolutely right. It could be.

However, I’m medicated now. I reassess my moods multiple times a day.

Mental illness is an illness- thus it has symptoms. I know my symptoms of getting ill and the people around me know to point them out to me if they see them emerging. I have my trading plan very concretely defined on not starting another trade within 24 hours of opening or closing one; whether a success or loss. The reason is that during that 24 hour period I will reassess my moods multiple times so I’ll know if I’m getting ill or not.

Solidly defined exits and entries. No intangible principles or gray areas.

Could I blow up and wipe out account tomorrrow? Sure. I could also wind up walking off a bridge. That’s just life being Bipolar. I’ve done everything I can to minimize any potential excessive damage I could possibly do to myself. And if I get unwell, then I won’t trade until I am (again stipulated into my plan).

Thanks for your concern. Appreciated. :slight_smile:

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That’s amazing Michael, congratulations on getting your life back in order. I think being so aware of your psychological state might actually make you a better trader than most people. Wish you all the best.

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Thank you, Pippatron. I agree with you. I really had to have a very deep understanding of my own psychology to ensure I could manage myself well and keep things together. One thing about being Bipolar- you own it or it owns you. There’s no in-between. There was somethings I struggled with but I feel like it certainly made it easier to identify my own shortcomings and work on them.

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Yes, you just might be able to save yourself some heartache if you read and believe this.

  1. You have one maxed out credit card
  2. You frequently overdraw your bank account
  3. You are upside down in your house
  4. You have more than one mortgage on your house
  5. Your car payment is more than 4% of your monthly salary
    a. Some say if you have a car payment (not business lease)
  6. You pay for internet on your cell phone, but don’t make a profit using it
  7. You consider any sports premium channels as a necessity
  8. You get into verbal altercations over traffic incidents (being cut off etc.)
  9. You cannot take criticism
  10. You tend to blame others for your shortcomings
  11. You cannot recognize that you have unresolved psychological issues
  12. You cannot control your temper
  13. You are unemployed and will soon lose your unemployment, so you have to learn to trade
  14. Trading will be your only source of income while you learn to trade
  15. Your job stinks, and you have to get out before you go crazy, so you are going to start live right
    NOW
  16. You buy things on sale because they are on sale
  17. You say “well this is how I feel about this” in conversations
  18. You are Cuban (hehehe, just threw that in there, Mrs. VIPER is Cuban)

Notice none of these have to do with the “System” you are using. I know a very successful trader that all he uses is two, yes two TMA’s. But he has control over himself, and has become not just a better trader but a better person. Now anything that is going on in your head that comes between you and Alpha, CAN be changed, if you want to, if YOU want to, IF YOU WANT TO. Admitting there is a problem is the first step, and then you take steps to address it.

But if you rather not, and you continue to blame a Guru, a System, or your Broker, well, all I can say, is that if you are in my Hub, thanks for the Ruf.

The Ever Driving VIPER

P.S. The difference between stonecoldmichael and an unsuccessful trader is admission, and the humility to get help. Good job mike, and be well.

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Ah Latino women; their fury knows no bounds. Was involved with a Puerto Rican woman for awhile. Thanks for the well wishes, VIPER. It’s been a long, difficult journey; but so very worthwhile.

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Mr. Viper mentioning babypips.com at 15:00 :slight_smile:
Excellent, I’m thrilled. The community here is gold.

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The All Encompassing Need for a Guru
Or
How to Turn Trading Into a Cult

Anyone who has been around retail trading for any length of time has seen the “Trading Guru Phenomenon” play out time and time again. The usual routine is that the Guru starts out by publishing some thoughts or “Trades” on an internet board, the pitch can range from “you may have seen these methods used before, but not the way I use them” to “this system that I have developed is unique, and has never been seen or used before”. After this introduction and numerous cherry picked charts later, comes a never ending litany of rules, regulations, definitions, acronyms, and “system” specific language. Of course along with this, there is generally a sprinkling of “Sock Puppets” to bolster the Gurus “street cred”, questions asked, and lovingly answered by the Guru. As interest grows, and if the Guru is on a trading website, he/she may be elected by the site owners to some form of honorific title that bestows a certain credibility and site rep to the Guru. These titles usually give the idea that what the Guru is doing contributes not only to the “click” count, but also to the development of others in the sites “community”. Titles such as “ Super Dooper Pooper Scooper Poster Of Great Renown”,“ Posterus With The Mosterous”, “Master Sooper Dooper Contributor And Pig Head” and the ever honorific “Xyz- Man/woman Honorary Member”, all infer that the Guru knows what they are talking about. Eventually videos may be added, and even more rules and terms are added, with the Guru always promising more clarity and guidance in the future, the “12 days of xmas” or “The Double Secret Super Whammy” setup is just around the corner.

It is generally around this time, when the cliks and liks start to increase, along with followers that things generally take a turn for the worse. The first sign is that dissent is not tolerated; this may be dissent from inside or outside the group, and may start as a simple question like “So and So, your last week trades to me personally don’t seem that obvious”. Or perhaps someone notices that every time the Guru sets up a Fibonacci on a chart he/she set’s it up differently, this is commonly known as the “Magic Floating Guru Fibbo”, (You move it around enough and add enough lines and you can generally get it to line up with some kind of price movement, it is like the Ex-lax of the constipated Guru, it will move one way or another). So the member asks “Why are you setting the Fibbo up differently than yesterday”? It is at this point the unwary poster has, by questioning the Guru, made themselves an enemy of the Loving Guru and his followers. All of the insults and excoriation that follow show quite clearly that the thread is no longer about trading, but is about the Guru, thus the thread and its ardent followers have now become a cult, with a leader who cannot be questioned and blind followers who are unwilling and quite possibly incapable of listening to logic or reason. Of course the excoriation is always a smoke screen to blame the questioner and never answer the question; usually it looks like the following.

“If the whiz bang does not work for you, you are the problem”. At some point the Guru will no doubt state that they are trading at a 80%-90% positive expectancy rate, and that rate is what matters, and “YOU” with your trolling questions, do not matter, and if you really want to learn, you need to go over the videos and other info, even better, you need to sign up to my “pay per view” trading site, because this is where the real trades take place”. What is sad about this situation is that some people will actually take out their credit cards and JOIN THE STINKING SITE. Yes they will pay to be abused!

It’s clear that no one gets involved with a Guru expecting failure; in fact just the opposite is true. People join to learn how to be a success. Many join after losing perhaps thousands of dollars; others join to avoid being a “loser”. But whatever the circumstance, all of these people have one thing in common; they are looking for guidance, direction and reassurance that no matter how badly they have done, or no matter how inexperienced they are, the Guru will make everything right. All of the self-doubt, self-hatred, self-loathing, self-whatever seems to melt away as the loving Guru offers emotional shelter, someone to lean on, a new way to see things. “Come in to my big tent, have a seat in that big comfy sofa” “Get out of the rain, we in the big tent will take care of you” “You can stay for as long as you like, as long as you pay, it’s only fair, the tent maintenance cost money too”. So it goes, with the follower never getting any real assistance, and the Guru reaping a profit. Eventually the Trader may become not just a passive follower but a devoted defender, ready to come to the defense of the all-knowing, caring and loving Guru. If this trader could just find a moment of clarity, they might realize that the problem with their trading is they themselves. But it is not their inability to grasp the Guru’s ever changing rules, or the lack of discipline to apply the Guru “system” to their own trading, no, the problem lies in the fact that they have little or no Self Knowledge, and this lack has led them to follow a Guru in the first place. So the problem truly comes from inside the individual trader and cannot be dealt with by anybody but the trader themselves.

So how can folks avoid being taken in by Gurus and the like? How can you become a successful trader? You have to know yourself, you must have “Epignosis”, or a deep knowledge of yourself, only then can you stand back and view the markets with clarity. Only then can you take losses in stride and gains with humility and balance. Ever wonder how a trader can lose 2/3 of their account, only to come back and build that account back up, only to lose half of the value again in one trade due to not setting a stop.

Only the trader him/herself can know this, no Guru, or Sum Dum Guy on the internet can answer this. This is without a doubt the hardest part of trading, getting to know oneself as it relates to the markets. Now once you see the problems and weaknesses, the next hardest thing to do is change, all of the recognition and contrite admissions mean absolutely nothing unless the individual changes. These deep rooted emotional and mental issues are the reason most traders fail, and there are no shortcuts around this. You can’t pay someone to fix it for you; you have to fix it yourself. So if you are struggling, or have given up, don’t look outside to a Guru, look inside. Start to examine how you feel about losses and gains. Write these feelings down, reread them, analyze them, accept your weaknesses and then put forth maximum effort to make the needed changes. If you do, you will never have any regrets, and you may just find yourself as a better trader and person.

The Ever Examining Myself VIPER

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Nice thread Viper! Keep the good work and sharing your knowledge about Forex trading to other people.For sure a lot of people learn this from you. :slight_smile:

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Post by tradeviper on Mar 22, 2015 at 6:25pm

Stop In The Name Of Alpha
Or
Of Mice And Stops

I recently ran into someone who had read some posts on an internet board, and of course you can believe everything you read on the internet, anyway, they told me that someone had developed a “system” that trades without stops. My first question was “how are they hedging their position”, his response was the cocked head of a dog hearing a high pitched whistle. I then said, “Well you either have to hedge, have fixed stops based on price, technical aspects, or possibly both”. Of course he said “no, you don’t need either one, the internet guy says if you use stops, you will die the “death” of a thousand cuts” and he finished by saying “if you get in with a good system, all you have to do is wait, and price will move back in your favor and even better, wonder of wonder of wonders, he/she has designed such a system,”. I could go on with more of his verbal diarrhea, but you get the picture. I finally told him, “PLEASE, save yourself some money and heartache, trade this thing on a sim for 6 months, and follow this “system” genius at the same time and see what happens, the market will always be there, and if it works, good for you, all you have lost was some time”. Well he decided to sim it for a while, (truth told, his wife decided he would sim it for 6 months) After only two weeks, low and behold, his sim account was dead (he’s dead Jim). Fortunately for him he lost some time but no money, and the no stop guy, well he kinda disappeared, something about Illuminati, G. Soros, and the need for an aluminum foil hat.

This experience, has motivated me to tackle the subject of stops. Understand that these are my opinions and observations, I am not setting out to prove anything or am I an expert. But, when I see folks struggling and giving up, I just cannot walk away. Mrs VIPER says it is a weakness, and I am wasting my time, I sometimes wonder if she is related to Ayn Rand, hehehe, but “I Ams What I Ams”. It takes time and effort to put this stuff together, that having been said, I learn from this also, looking at a subject from different angles, when one is removed from the consequences of the action taken, allows a clarity that is hard to find when one is in the middle of a morass of emotions.

It also is obvious that this subject is controversial on trading boards, in fact the discussions can get to be down right nasty at times, which, in and of itself, shows that something is not quite right with either side of the issue. The fact that people cannot just say “well I disagree with that” and not descend into insults and name calling, shows that those involved are not mature in a trading or emotional sense. Since this is the case, I really wanted to take a look at it from a psychological view, but in doing so there will be some Risk and Technical aspects to clarify the discussion. So without further adooooooo heeeeeeeeeeeeerse da VIPER

Protecting your capital is the first thing a trader should think about.

This brings us to;

Psychological stop Issue #1

“Stops And Capital Preservation Are Boring and Negative”

Yes, talking about preserving capital is boring and so are stops, they are nowhere near as fun as talking about high percentage gains, positive expectancy, and the power of compounding. Capital Preservation is to an immature trader a “Debbie Downer” conversation. The emotionally immature trader does not want to talk about losses, it scares them, makes them think they are losers. The thought of this disrupts their fragile egos, so they use “denial by avoidance”, looking for someone to validate their feelings, they gravitate to anyone who will tell them they do not need stops, or anything else losers need, because they will be winners.

RULE 1

Stops Are About Capital Preservation.

You will not be able to defend your account from your own mistakes, sudden unexpected market moves, or just plain being wrong, without stops. If you cannot see this or understand it, you will not be successful in your career as a trader. Of course this does not mean you cannot trade, or you do not have the “it” factor. It just means you have to be willing to change, adjust and apply.

Psychological stop Issue #2

“I don’t want to die the death of a thousand cuts”

We have all seen this, play out time after time on public forums, the trader starts out taking stop after stop and eventually runs out the account. They become emotionally devastated, having lost possibly thousands of dollars, so anger and depression set in, and at this point the trader is no longer thinking clearly due to the psychological pain they have suffered. In this unbalanced state the Stop becomes a convenient scapegoat for the failed trader. This psychological condition is so common one would think that it could appear as a separate section in the DSM. Of course others read this and believe what the failed trader is saying, and so the legend of a “thousand cuts” continues to grow.

RULE 2

Stops Can Only Function IF The System Being Used Has Positive Expectancy

There are only Three types of market movement, Up, Down, Sideways and your system has to either function in these conditions or keep you out when it is not working. You cannot expect a system of stops to make up for a trading system that does not have positive expectancy. If the trader does not understand this they will, without doubt, die from “a thousand cuts”.

Psychological stop Issue #3

“The Price Always Comes Back In My Favor After My Stop Is Hit”

This illusion is at the heart of many account blowups, and traders giving up. What a coincidence that price moves against you, hits your stops and then moves back in your favor. Some begin to view this action as a reason to not use stops. Of course it’s not, in general, your broker hunting stops, it is just a function of price discovery. Here is where the psychology comes in, a trader may decide that trading without stops makes sense with this kind of action, they jump into a strong trend market, each trade is with the trend, and since the trend is so strong there are only small retraces which eventually come back to the traders favor, so with each trade they are more and more profitable. Unexpectedly the trend bends back, and price starts a long hard retrace, at this point all the trader has left is hope, of course we all know that will not work. Finally he/she draws up the courage to close out, with most of his/her account gone. Again, devastation, death and destruction.

RULE 3

Stops Are You Friend

A famous man once said “how can you have any pudding if you haven’t eaten your meat”. My friends, truer words were never spoken. Also, another famous guy once said “You can’t trade unless you have money in your account”. Please, I am beggin y’all to think again about this. HOW do you get out of a trade that has moved against you before it burns your account to the ground? You cannot believe you will never have a loss, whether due to unexpected market movement, error in execution, or being on the wrong side, you will have losses, and again I ask, how do you ensure these moments do not bow you up, without using some form of stop? There are those who would disagree with these statements, and the internet is littered with the financial bones of those who will tell you not to use stops. For your own sake’s please remember this, Stops are like seat belts, the financial life you safe might be your own.

Additional reference

Stops are not one size fits all, the following are some basics on how to choose Stop placement. These are not original ideas, but just a hodgepodge of stuff I have learned over the years, stuck here in one place.

  1. System Expectancy

    A. If it is not at least 60% don’t even bother

  2. The “you can make money at 50% with proper money management”, is nonsense, it’s a nice theory, and I have seen it done, in theory, but in reality, the 50% system fails 50% of the time. So that means, 50% of the time your account will blow up, hehehehe.

a. To clarify, I have recently experimented with this, and have changed my mind from being in the pro
50% expectancy crowd to anti.

B. Account size

  1. This is the hard part, it takes time to figure this out and you really have to know your system. Take for example a 40% loss ratio, how many trades in a row you can lose before your account blows up taking X amount of loss per trade.

a. To do this you need to know how many trades you system will generate given a specific time period, then figure the 40% of those are losers, it gives you a rough start.

b. If you want to take a conservative view (ooooooo I used the “C” word) Do this backwards, and figure all 40% in a row, now that will put hair on your chest, hopefully not our Lady traders. So (account size needs to be X before trading Y system), so you would be fitting the account size and margin to the system, and not the system to the account size.

c. Risk – Reward. It would be nice to say 2 to 1, one risked to 2 returned, but markets are dynamic, and not fixed, so figure at least 1.5 to 1, any lower than that and your fees start to become a larger factor in profitability.

d. If you are using technical stops, these have to fit into your account sizing and expectancy figures.

e. Longer time frames require wider stops, which means generally a larger account or lower margin

So Thanks for reading

The Ever Wearing His Seat Belt VIPER

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This is one of those key words that I often throw into answers here at BP, and other forums - but it’s also a key word (which has a real important & fundamental meaning) which many new and even moderate traders don’t quite understand.

If you did a poll here, and asked “What is your expectancy as a factor of your risk”, then I’m sure we’d only get a handful of accurate responses.

I like this thread, but perhaps you can explain what “expectancy” is, and how to calculate it for those who don’t know, my guess is that there is quite a few :wink:

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                                               WHY IS TRADING SO HARD
                                                           OR
                                       WHY CAN’T WE ALL BE “MAUD’DIB”

A while back I had a lively conversation with one of the regulars here, let’s call him B, about the difference between Trading and any other business. His point was the “stress” level of running a regular business was the same in both instances. Of course I disagreed, and still do, undoubtedly, he still disagrees with me. I guess the “to each his own” viewpoint could apply in this case, but there is a difference between this discussion and many others that the “to each his own” axiom could apply. We are discussing Trading and not whether to open a “Sports Clips” or “Dominos” franchise. In today’s environment, losing thousands of dollars, including ones retirement savings, emergency account, etc. is very easy. With the advent of Online Brokers and the memory of everybody and their brother making big bucks “online trading” in the Nineties, the reality of losing one’s shirt in a couple of weeks or even days has become not just a possibility but even inevitable in some cases. We have discussed this before, but it may be time to put a bit of a different spin on the subject to help all to gain a clearer understanding of what we are up against, in terms of how this can play out emotionally. So with this said let’s look at an example everyone can relate to, that of being a “Cabbie”

The Cabbie

Most Cabbies operate in a fairly competitive market. In the US they have to continually market their services, they have to be where there are fares to pick up, and have the ability to drop them off in a timely fashion. The fare price is usually the same between providers, and in some instances regulated by the Gov’t. They have the cost of Maintenance on the vehicle, fuel, insurance, licenses, and of course their salaries. Within this scope they also market to bring in more fixed business rather than just relying on random fares. For instance when I blew out my left calf muscle trying to push start a friend’s car, for the next 5 months a private taxi had contracted with my insurance company to bring me back and forth to the Dr. and therapy appointments. The cabbie knew exactly how much they would make for each trip, and by calculating the costs and income they can estimate their profit. This is very simple, and apart from the Gov’t regulations, very straight forward. The cabbie can also increase profits by looking in the seats for “Lost Change”. So there you have it, a service with known costs, and known profits per length of trip.

Now let’s turn this on its head.

First, you are a cabbie, but you never know how much you will make per trip, also, there are some trips that you will end up paying the customer and additional Gov’t fees. So think of this, the last fare that you took looked really good, well dressed, business type and he was picked up across from Lex van Dam’s place in the city. So as you stop to drop the fare off, you look at the meter and it says you must pay the fare/client 200 bucks and the Gov’t 95cents, so you fork over the money. Now how do you think you would approach the next fare, all happy and positive, ready to “rumble?” Not very likely, so you pick up your next fare and low and behold when you drop this one off the meter says they must pay you 800 bucks and of course the Gov’t gets its 95cents. So it goes, until you hit a time when you have five or six fares that you have to pay out, and of course the loss is immediate, and not of a five year or so horizon. How would you react, how would this affect your personal life? If you came home not only with an empty pocket, but lost money for the day, again I ask how would this affect your personal life???

This dear reader is the point, you never know how a trade will turn out until you book the profit, and that makes it different than the average money making endeavor. According to statistics, the majority of new businesses fail in the first five years, well that is about five years longer than it takes for a trader to Fail/Blowup. In trading there are no actual price negotiations, for example, a dog walker with Ten dogs hails a taxi and the driver negotiates with the “walker” for a higher rate because of the dogs. You can’t say to your broker,” well the price is 1.0867, I really don’t like the 10 announcements coming out today, so I will buy at that price but you have to guarantee me 100 bucks”, hah, have fun with that. Also once you put a trade on, you can’t take it back, whether you are profitable or not, at this point at least, it is out of your hands. This loss of control of destiny (Profit or Not) can, if not controlled by the trader, result in serious damage to ones Psyche, and a string of losses also can do even more damage. That is why we keep telling people, “be careful, this is different”, “Your job is to defend capital” “The losses and gains can affect your emotions, causing a serious unbalance in your thinking if you let it”. But some people do not listen.

Professionally, I come from an automotive repair background; I have been a technician, service writer, service manager, and finally an entrepreneur, running my own foreign car shop. So I know the stresses of running a small business. But it is still very different than trading. If I wanted to increase my Mercedes customers, I would run a free service special, with fliers placed on the windows of Benzes in front of our local Macy’s, Lord and Taylors, etc. I would scrape so much business off of that old windbag Braman, that I laughed all the way to the bank, oops, sorry, reliving the old glory days. In trading, who in the world are you going to market to ??? How do you increase sales and profits ??? You see, we told you it was different.

Now of course if you live in one of the areas of the U.S. that is an economic shambles, Ohio, Upstate New York, Detroit, I can imagine the killer stress trying to run a business when there is no business, but at some point you need to say “Let’s go somewhere else where we can make a buck”, so it’s not the business it is the area/environment. So no “Trading” comparisons can be fairly used in this type of circumstance.

Now having said this, it does not mean that it is impossible to trade retail; you just have to recognize that this is totally different than anything you have done before. You must be prepared to learn many lessons about yourself that you thought you would never learn. Unfortunately there is nothing that can prepare you for this; the only way to learn is to do. Like learning to play a musical instrument, you can have all of the theory you want, but until you sit behind that ’58 B3 with the 142 Leslie, you will never know if you really can play. So you learn to trade small amounts to control the losses, this helps us to get acclimated to the different world we are in, without worrying about blowing up. Done properly, you will learn many lessons that will; over a period of time help you gain perspective and consistency in your trading.

The Ever Learning VIPER

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What an incredible post - the next time I get asked "what is it you do and why do you think it’s stressful sat in front of your PC " - i’m printing this out.

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Thanks Bud, I appreciate it. I think this distills trading down to it’s essence, especially if you are in a small “Boutique” fund, or trading your own money. It is not easy, in fact, Mrs. VIPER and I have been married for 34 yrs, and my marriage was a billion times easier than trading. I know it’s not taking fire in Kandahar, or walking a beat in Baltimore, but outside of combat and police work, and of course firefighter, it is the most stressful job you could have.

Oh, I know a guy that worked in the CME Pits in the '80s, 32 yrs old, had a massive stroke on the floor, it took out his complete left side, he barely made it. Eventually bought some beach-side cabins in Nokomis Fla. But the deal was, he would never be the same after that stroke. If your not Careful this job will kill you.

The Ever Careful/Cautious VIPER

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                                               I HATE MY JOB
                                                     or
                                   "For The Want of the Price of Tea"
                                                     or
                                             “Nothing Is Easy”

I can’t tell you how many times I have heard this from people and read it online. “I hate my job” “I need to find a new job, I have become one of the oppressed masses”, I even had someone whom I will call Ed, send me an e-mail begging to confirm that a particular “Guru” and his “System” really works. The reason that Ed was so desperate, as he explained, was that he was running out of his unemployment benefits and needed to find a way to make money, he said that he could not go back to the work he was doing, because the people in his industry were lying backstabbers, etc, etc, etc… When I told him that the Guru’s system was profitable about 50% of the time, and during the profitable times it would never make up the negative equity from the poor risk ratio it had + fees, he blow up on me, and it got worse when I suggested that he try something basic that had worked for traders for years, he then got down right uncontrollable, accusing me of wanting to sell him my “system”, and that this world is horrible, and I was horrible, etc. Oh, by the way the system I was going to suggest to him was very similar to the “Three Ducks”, also because of NDA’s I couldn’t give away my system let alone sell it. It was a very sad and unsettling experience for me. I learned from this that people can get so desperate, and hopeless that they feel as if they are drowning, and like a drowning person, they start grasping at whatever they can, including trading.

Most do not want to face the realities of trading because these realities do not fit their hopes and dreams; “If I can just learn how to trade, I can ________________________________” (Fill in the Blank). The hope that this can happen, and happen in a short period of time, becomes a self-delusion so strong that all reason is thrown out the window. For example take a top level computer programmer, it takes years to hone their skills, and yet some believe that in a few months they can change all of the psychological defects that hold them back from being consistently profitable traders. It makes no sense at all, if it takes years to learn programming how long do you think it will take to learn how to trade, and fix your head???

Now think about this delusion. “I know I can trade because I have __________________________” (fill in the blank). Generally this blank is filled with an exaggerated view of ones “Steely Nerve, and Ice Cold Focus”. Oh really? How is it that you “feel” desperate and hopeless when your boss insults you, or when you are passed up for a promotion, etc. If you cannot properly deal with the things that virtually everyone goes through in a controlled and rational manner, while still having a source of income? How do you think you will you be able to function if you lose that source of income, and your new supposed source of income is causing you to lose what little bit of money you have due to a negative equity streak?? Self-Delusion, it sucks.

In this profession, self-control, mental balance and confidence mean everything; you cannot trade well if you have unresolved emotional issues. Yet people do not look at themselves when they blow up an account, they blame the “system” they are using, or the broker, or a Guru, or whatever is handy. The same behavior that caused them so much grief in their “day” job is now coming back to haunt them in trading. Time and time again it is seen that a trader is able to make some money trading and then they give it back, and then some. Then again some never make it out of the stall, thinking they can master the market, they try to control the reality, rather than accepting the reality. Article after article have been written about these problems, and yet the same old story remains, I hate my job so I must trade.

To correct this, one has to deal with their current circumstances. Is your boss a psychopath? How do you handle this on an emotional level?? In your opinion, is your job a dead end, then what is your plan to address this?? Most people who get into trading are not trust fund babies or have an inside connection like Paul Tudor Jones, most of us have to work full time to provide for family, food, and housing, so what plan do you have, what time frame will you use that will fit your life. It takes time, patience, self-control and focus, you just cannot hope that it will all work out; you have to have a solid yet flexible plan that will give the maximum possibility of success, this is known as the “Edge”. If you don’t have this, you will be wasting time, money and even your life chasing something that is beyond your ability to accomplish!

The Ever Flute Listening Edge Using VIPER

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Just wanna say this