Politicians have only one objective, power. Their mission is to get it, then keep it.
But in the western democracies they also understand that their efforts to get power and keep it and how they use/abuse it will be gauged sooner or later by the electorate. This is where the democracy part comes in. Up to that point, all politicians’ talk of democracy is rhetorical - but not untruthful.
No doubt the majority of the 63 million people in the UK but not in NI would like NI to be pushed out of the UK and left alone to sort out its own problems. This is a very poor attitude and shows why we shouldn’t put much faith in referendums - because the majority can be very wrong even when its being ultra-democratic.
I have no doubt that diplomatic/political solutions will be found to all problems that present on the NI/Republic border. Though the solutions might only be put in place after Brexit. But such problems will be temporary and the UK government will be able (and willing I hope) to financially support NI through them. It is not credible that this backstop BS will stop Brexit.
Not only that, but it would be politically suicidal for a PM to confess to the voters that he was unable to initiate a UK policy of generational importance because there is expectation of some customs and border issues between one region and one of our neighbours which remain unresolved. Similar and even more significant issues have been resolved there previously. And there are numerous territorial and border disputes around the world, but ways are found for peaceful trade and travel to go on.
The EU negotiators should expect equal criticism if they fail to eventually accommodate the Republic’s needs in this regard.
Beeing a member of the EU (EU never pushed the UK out) - UK doesnt want that
Having a agreenment with the EU (EU offered one, despite hostile words from UK sides) - UK doesnt want that
There are 2 hard ways for this
Having NI seperated from the UK and join the EU - UK seems to aim for that
Having NI seperated from the republic of Ireland and the following much bigger problems - UK seems to aim for that
Edit: tbh it feels to me like the UK is the ex wife and just wants to do as much damage as possible. Saying no to any solution, no matter what the solution looks like. Saying yes to anything that can cause hostility. A real drama.
I’m confident that no matter how the UK leaves the EU, we will start talking with the EU immediately to get favourable / more favourable trade terms. This will drag on for years but both parties will eventually walk out of the room with something.
I hope that NI will wish to stay in the UK post-Brexit but if they want a referendum on leaving the UK that’s fine, and if their referendum vote is leave-UK, the UK should not stand in their way. What a non-UK NI does is up to them and at that point I couldn’t care less.
There is absolutely no way that the UK has any better deals with the EU as a 3rd country not member of the EU than it has right now.
I dont quite understand how people can believe that a 3rd country, no member, can have any benefits which a member doesnt have.
Its like giving japan a better deal to the UK than scotland has. Is there any logic behind that?
Im pretty sure the UK will have similar deals as USA and Japan have. Some goods tax fre,others with tax. Financial services will not be allowed in the EU out of london, which is pretry bad for london as around 60% of their revenue comes from services to EU countries.
Food will have the same terms as USA- to some extend tarif free but everything above a number will be taxed. Fishery will have taxes as the domestic fish producers in the EU have over capacities and import would take off their market share.
All in all it will be a big hit for the UK economy. No economical sector will come out of this undamaged. The car industry and the financial sector will suffer the most. Out of 2 reasons:
Financial services will decline as 60% of customers are gone.
The UK car industry is in the hands of german producers (jaguar and land rover = india - bentley, rolls royce, mini =germans - aston martin = italy) the supply chains come from europe, 80% of the parts in those cars are from europe. Only the assembly is in the UK, assembly can be moved if tarifs hit the supply chains and the assembly of the cars.
We will obviously not get a better economic deal than membership. Yes, this is pretty bad for the UK in the range out about as far as anyone can half-way reliably see - let’s say the next 10 years, but could go to 15 or even 20. Beyond that nobody has a clue.
But we’ve been over this before. The Brexiteers believe we will make up for the loss of EU member terms by ability to trade independently with the rest of the world. To me it seems unlikely the UK will be able to go to a third country market and get better terms than the EU got for us but that’s what they say will happen - we shall see…
We obviously also avoid political unification with the EU. I’m personally not convinced that economic regression is worth this price.
Good post. I like it when someone sees things the real way and not put on pink glasses when looking into the future.
I really wish the UK the best. Economical and political wise. I just like to stay in reality when observing something and i think the reality is that brexit has no winners but only losers, and it annoys me when people come around and preach how “they” will win in a lose-lose situation. Thats pure dennial.
Thought I’d look up how many separatist movements there are active in the EU right now who will no doubt be watching Brexit and the question of Scottish independence from the UK. I could call to mind Brittany, the Basques, Catalonia and Corsica but the actual list is staggering. It must be terrifying to the national governments and no less to the EU that a new potential route to independence could be via an EU exit referendum decision, followed by a regional independence referendum.
There are multiple such regional movements in France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Spain… and on and on and on.
Hard to find a single EU country not facing several of their own “Scottish” questions.
It is my understanding that the next round of International treaties - Including the Barnier Surrender Treaty presented to Theresa May - Removes permanently ANY Legal way of “leaving” the EU - at all.
Sonia Khan, a Treasury adviser to Saj was escorted out of No.10 by armed police after enforcer (unelected) Dominic Cummings subjected her to a grilling.
Her ‘crime’ was that he found texts to former colleagues - nothing incriminating in same - but Cummings decided that she could not be trusted so she was sacked and humiliated…
Saj her boss, public response? - Nil. (the Sun does report that he was’furious with Boris’)
Also reported same day in the Sun newspaper that No.10 has decided to sack any Tory MP’s who rebel against the whip (don’t do what they are told) - this story has not been denied by No.10 (Cummings).
Interesting turn of events in a democracy.
Btw - The Sun is viewed as a Tory supporting paper and the sacked civil servant is labelled as a ‘passionate leaver’.
At least there seems to be Unity of purpose with two drivers, a PM elected by 0.01% of voters and an enforcer elected by 0.00%
This emphasis on things that are held to be undemocratic is misleading.
Employees who work for the PM’s office are not appointed by a popular vote. If an employee believes they were unfairly dismissed they have a right to take legal action.
Interesting how arguments tend to fit ones perspectives. Claiming the EU beeing undemocratic while everyone in charge is an elected member but saying things are democratic in a government with leaders not voted by anyone and that same leader appoints people in charge who barely anyone knew before their appointment take away them beeing elected for anything.
Seems to me the arguments always fit the prefered perspective but not the reality- in modern UK.
There is only catalonia and scottland. No other region wanted to seperate from its country in the latest history.
But catalonia is to take with a big difference. Catalonia wanting to seperate out of reasons of “power” beeing the economical strongest in spain. Spain never even contemplated about an exit out of the EU and wont.
Scotland wants to seperate out of “weaknes” beeing less developed than england, shedding sovereignity to england and knowing england beeing very undemocratic/unfair when it comes to economical factors- trying to score all cherries for itself, leaving only taxes to the others. Now with brexit things can only get worse for scotland, not better. And the scotts seems to see this reality which England and Wales do not see.
The last decades the scotts and irish made friends in europe, have had the feeling that they are equals and their voice beeing heard. Had the feeling someone actually cares for them the first time in forever, someone believes in them and invests in them. Brexit locks scottland and ireland back into the Island only, cutting all ties to new friends they made. Putting everything back to the status quo of 1960, when the UK was the pet of the USA and scottland had nothing to say about its own future or the politics of the country. Back into a time where they had central heating in england while the rest was as underdeveloped as to heat with wood bricks. And that feels wrong to the scotts.
It would feel wrong to me if i were a scott.
England and wales telling me who can be my friend and who not? While taking all taxes, the oil industry, and any foreign investment for themselves?
Truth be told the way i see it: english population realised tgey are losing control over regions which used to be pure vasalls only there to serve and put up soilders if needed. They didnt like the feeling of lost power and decided its the EUs fault. So lets brexit to get our vasalls back in line.
Or am i mistaken? You all will probably argue that i am wrong etc etc and put up “democracy” as some sort of argument. But the truth is, the rulers of the UK were always english elitists, politicians coming from english elite families and groups. Scotts or Irish never had much to say in the UK. Now that england realised that scottish and irish voices are heard in the EU- they decided to proclaim the EU into something bad.
Finding an army of selfproclaimed “defenders of democracy” and “usefull idiots with half knowledge” to rabble down medias, social medias and their neibourhoods to convience others to their false facts and odd viewpoints (and in a lot cases plain lies).
Im glad it has worked out for the UK, the brexit is here. But what the UK will look like in a couple of years after brexit for sure is not a desired outcome.
Its funny, catalonia wanted to seperate out of a position of power. But they slowly realising that their power in a great deal comes from spain.
Same is true for the UK, the UK beeing a strong country wants to seperate out of a position of economical and political power, but not realising that both these powers are sourced exactly by their position in the EU. UK had absolutely no power from 1945 till 1990. Beeing laughted at by the east-block as the pet of the USA, and beeing commanded around by the USA in political as well as economical forces. <- that changed in the last 25 years, the UK going its own way with polical and economical partners in europe. Now that change will be made undone.
You are totally wrong on regional independence movements in Europe.
As for the UK, I wouldn’t want the UK Parliament (which includes the MP’s and Lords from Wales and Northern Ireland) to vote to stop Scotland having another independence referendum. And if the popular vote is leave the UK, then I would wish the new Scottish nation all the best.
Same goes for NI.
I share your fear that the UK out of the EU will become a vassal to the US. Although our foreign policies have often matched they have just as often not. I don’t suppose the US will ever forget that Britain didn’t lift a finger to help in Vietnam - unlike Australia. There again, the US scuppered the Suez invasion and did nothing material to help in the Falklands. But I don’t want to be a US aircraft carrier nor the next state of the Union.
My other fear is that there will be less moderating influence on the movement of the EU towards European political unification. If this happens, its likely to be dominated by France and Germany, not a happy outcome for us in the UK. Even worse if the USE were to be dominated by Germany.
And thats where you are wrong. For the english it has become normal to think in “domination terms” as they dominate the other 3 states in the UK since decades and centuries.
This “domination thinking” in itself is the completele wrong approach and wrong form of thinkin. Nobody dominates the EU.
This “domination” thinking is the maincause of indyref1 and indyref2 and any seperist movement within the UK.
And its the maincause for the brexit in the form of “if we cant dominate it then we leave it”.
Im not wrong on the sep. movements in the EU. There are always some minorities of nationalists wanting this and that. But there is no referendums, no weapons beeing bought (like in NI) not even a tiny support from the populations on any indipence moves, except for catalunia.
Once people get out of that sort of thinking and see its nothing but immagination paired with modernist rules, they can see how things really are.
