Will we soon be in a recession?

The Lobby
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I’m not sure if there’s going to be a technical world-wide recession, but the markets are definitely going to change within the next few months. Every single expert (GoldmanSachs/Bloomberg etc) seems to be saying oil prices/copper are going to go up and up and up. You hear this sort of talk near the peak of every commodities cycle when emotions take over. There might be also a certain amount of pumping the market going on.

I think we are currently near to the peak of this cycle. If you look at monthly crude oil RSI it’s already deep in overbought territory. If past predicts future then I reckon the smart money is about to slowly start cashing in those long positions. I no longer think oil will get much above it’s second peak and I think predictions of greater than $150 per barrell of west Texas crude are overdone.

I’m going out on a limb and may be proven wrong, but i’m beginning to sell my longs and getting ready to start cautiously shorting commodities. Sorry, I know this forum is mostly Forex, but I guess u can extrapolate to FX.

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I’ll repost in 6 months on this thread if i’m right! If i’m wrong, then my account’s probably blown and you’ll never hear from me again!! :joy:

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LOL. Is there a remindme bot here in this forum :joy:

Do you see this for just commodities? Or across all markets? (maybe excluding crypto lol)

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I don’t see any evidence for it and wouldn’t know how to look. I just think that human nature being what it is, along with some of the types of people in power and the vast amount of insider info that must be available it’s inevitable…

Say hypothetically, you had a president of a big country, USA for example. They were having a big trade war with another big country - say China. That president could release a press release (or even a tweet) which would heat up or cool down the trade war - they might even release contradictory statements days apart. In response the S&P500 might shoot down then shoot up again. Is anyone going to tell me that that the hypothetical president’s son in Law’s cousin’s friend might not have some info to allow them to make some v successful trades, then maybe buy an expensive present for their friend’s cousin’s wife as a thank-you?

Or am I just too cynical / jealous?:wink:

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Nothing hypothetical about it, this is exactly what joe and hunter biden are doing, and you also have the insider trading done on nancy pelosi’s behalf by her husband

I bet we don’t see any congressional hears on any of this

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Global Governments have very few tools left to fight inflation in 2022…

This time around, hiking interest rates will only exacerbate the decline into recession, Let me explain.

Living costs have increased globally, Oil and Natural Gas supplies have been artificial choked by slowing Middle Eastern Oil production, the United State’s failed energy policies and another Balkan war and sanctions on Russia.

Europe which depended on Russia for a majority of it’s energy resources, is now relying on global energy resources… There is just less to go around… We are also in the post pandemic era. World Governments are carry billions more in sovereign debt than ever before.

China’s draconian Government handled the pandemic poorly. The globes largest manufacturer and exporter of just about everything… Is low on production and suffering from decreased demand.

Transport and Shipping costs have skyrocketed, an example is a 40" container which used to cost ~ $3-4k to move around the globe… Now costs in the vicinity of ~$12-14k… Both these factors have had a direct effect on daily commodities. Vehicles, Electronics, White Goods, Food, Clothing most things we use are made in Asia.

We’ve suddenly realised our dependence on the Global Economy…Grey clouds are gathering…

Now we have world Governments (Reserve Banks) beginning to increase interest rates in a bid to slow their economies to stave off inflation. We don’t have the normal inflation problem where wages increased, consumption increased, Inflation increased… We have a supply and demand problem.

The cost of living has soared across the globe… Staples like Food, clothing, entertainment, services and everything else we use in our daily lives is now more expensive.

Now we have additional pressure added to the mix with increasing Interest rates Global nations are now being held captive by their respective Reserve Banks (Private Companies!!) as rates rise and drive the cost of living up even higher. Read about what caused the Great Depression. some parallels can be drawn from the events of the last century. History repeats itself over and over and over again.

The Perfect Storm is upon us

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There’s also decreased refinery capacity, that was culled during the the pandemic. Atleast going by the IEA reports, that were briefly discussed here:

Edit: The slowing ME production might be debatable though. The numbers provided show non Arab members in OPEC not meeting their targets as of recent atleast (also discussed). But it’s not like I’ve compared Arab production in the past to present levels.

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We can’t say anything now. It’s all unpredictable.

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Isn’t it a great time to be alive? Everything is getting crazy expensive. I’ve noticed at the grocery store a lot lately and that we’ve been dipping into our savings way more than usual. I have three kids and a husband, so it already wasn’t cheap to buy groceries. Also, there’s always a new conspiracy or something going on every time you turn around these days. Not saying I don’t think some could be true, but I just want to relax and live life without having this doom cloud hanging over our heads.

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Is this the same case for your friends? I find that some of mine don’t seem to care about what’s happening economics/finance-wise. Or maybe it’s because we just don’t talk about it… I don’t see them changing their habits though. Still eating out a lot, buying stuff etc.

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YET WE SIT ON EVER A TRILLION POUNDS OF SHALE GAS - and massive Coal deposits - Oil fields under the North Sea - We are sitting pretty - but what does Boris do ?

Plants Bloody windmills ! and Shag’s Princess Nut-Nut the raging greenie !

Come on man - get your brain out of your pants and do the right thing !

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See what I mean? Lol. I think I’ve already mentioned in some other thread maybe but you really seem very angry online :sweat_smile: If I had to envision you in person, you’d just be screaming at everyone one by one. :joy:

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What we’re not allowed to use exclamation marks now - without being accused of “SCREAMING” ?!!

:rofl: :rofl:

I’m sure I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings ! :slightly_smiling_face:

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You are free to ignore what I said about you :slight_smile: I didn’t say you’re not allowed lol I am not the all caps and exclamation point police. I’m only saying you like to scream online. :grin:

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You can also use quotes (the quiote function) here. No need to take SCREENSHOTS ! ! ! :smiley:

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Sometimes you can - Sometimes the site deletes your quote - if you do - Screenshots - it does not (at the moment)

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We are being rather picky tonight - “nest-ce pas”? - Give me a pint of what she’s been drinking ! :sunglasses:

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I do think its cyclical though so get the house in order and then we will go into a boom again in a few years. Plenty of money to be made in a recession too lol

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The writings on the wall can already sed it in the grocery store prices and at the pumps .
Just has to be made official now !

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Seems like everything is being squeezed on every item and asset. Somethings got to pop soon