Win ratio

kaalilaatikko · August 10, 2009, 3:42pm

Ok, I see. Sorry, I got that wrong.

I had placed my entry below that (1.6643), so I did not suffer from that drawdown. It looks like a bump from the xx50 level support, which I am a bit afraid of. That entry of mine was based on the low that formed a couple of hours before the overnight period. The difference in pips was small, but enough!

I just opened the 1-min chart, and it shows me that the spike reached its top in 7 minutes after reaching the lowest low at 1.66509. And it took one hour before going below 1.6650.

Clint · August 10, 2009, 8:32pm

A channel has formed

As always, we begin by pulling up charts and asking, “What are the charts showing us?”

The charts are showing us a well-formed descending channel over the past 3 days.

On the 15-minute chart below, notice points 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Points 1 and 2, on the upper channel boundary line, were the take-off points for sharp down-moves toward the lower channel boundary line. But, point 3 was the take-off point for a flat move across the channel toward the upper channel boundary line.

If history repeats itself, point 4, where we are now, could be like point 3. That is, we may get a weak breakout Tuesday morning (or no breakout, at all) as the GU begins a flat move across the channel toward the upper channel boundary line.

Or, maybe none of the above will happen. Channels, and all other patterns, are temporary things, subject to being discarded at any time. The GU could blast off in a totally unexpected direction Tuesday morning. That’s why we’ll be ready to buy — or sell — depending on where this thing decides to go.

More later.

Clint

R_Carter · August 10, 2009, 9:51pm

OSKAR

Yep time to eat humble pie Last time I stick my neck out, was bound to get it chopped off! Thing is I was half right. I knew it would carry on down not up after BoE anounced �175 bill ’ quantitative easing’. But thought it was entirely possible it would retrace to 1.68.

Very well done… you were exactly on the money. Consider my ass kicked and next time your across the pond I’ll buy you a whole keg of beer!

Oskar · August 10, 2009, 10:39pm

Glad you can take it.
I know I am always wrong until the next day with money in my pocket (or not).
Tonight’s take:
long 1.6530
Short 1.6426

I stick to it hmmmmm

Oskar · August 10, 2009, 10:42pm

Thanks Clint for the chart, at the moment candle is nice in the middle of my lines, can go either way, just the way I like it. Of course only if it brakes out +30 pips one way or the other.

TalonD · August 10, 2009, 11:22pm

I’m right there close Oscar. long 1.6533 short 1.64265
I’m using a 25tp and 35sl

I’m with Robert in thinking it’s going up. I think it’s in some oversold territory right now.
we shall see…

Prognostication… I predict it will break up this time, well I predicted that last night and got it wrong… 50 50 chance anyway.
and then a dip in price about 8am gmt
whattaya think?

Oanda returned my deposit because I used a different paypal email address vs. the email address that I signed up with and I thought Id be trading real money tonight

R_Carter · August 10, 2009, 11:39pm

TALOND

After last night I’m saying nothing But have already got my target today and 15 pips towards tomorrows.

Clint · August 10, 2009, 11:59pm

Notes on the London Breakout Strategy for Tuesday morning:

If the GBP/USD is about to do a flat crawl across the chart, toward the upper channel boundary line, then you might want to actively manage your position Tuesday morning. A tentative breakout could trigger one of your orders, followed by weak movement which fails to reach your TP (as happened to some of us last Friday morning).

If you don’t have the luxury of staying up to watch your position, then you might want to avoid an overly-ambitious profit target. Something like 15 pips, or less, would be prudent.

Otherwise, I don’t see any reason to deviate from our normal plan this morning.

Resistance and Support for Tuesday morning:

If either channel boundary line is broken, a significant move in the direction of the break could result.

R – 1.6600
R – 1.6585 – July 23 high
R – 1.6555 – July 28 high, and the upper channel boundary line at approx. 07:00 GMT

S – 1.6400
S – 1.6381 – July 26 low
S – 1.6354 – July 16 low, and the lower channel boundary line at approx. 06:00 GMT
S – 1.6337 – July 29 low

News releases:

There are no high-impact news releases affecting the GBP or the USD until Wednesday morning.
The calendar for the rest of this week is at the bottom of this post (I had to reduce it, so put on your reading glasses).

The Period HIGH is 1.6524 (bid). The Period LOW is 1.6430 (bid).

My Entry Orders for Tuesday morning:

I’m increasing my stop-loss (on the Buy order) to 40 pips (from my usual 30) in order to get it away from the 1.6500 area.

BUY (@ HIGH + 9 pips) 1.6533, SL(40) 1.6493, TP(20) 1.6553

SELL (@ LOW - 6 pips) 1.6424, SL(30) 1.6454. TP(20) 1.6404

Good luck.

Clint

SanMiguel · August 11, 2009, 4:27am

Oh well…no breakout today. Orders cancelled.

Clint · August 11, 2009, 5:02am

5am New York time, and I’m out as well.

TalonD · August 11, 2009, 6:36am

closed mine too. I tried keeping them open the last time it did this because I figured it’s still in a range so it has to break out eventually, but ended up loosing when I did that so now I’m sticking to the original plan

Oskar · August 11, 2009, 6:43am

Just canceled mine too. Now Plan B has to kick in.

ReaperKK · August 11, 2009, 12:07pm

Closed my trades for tonight, no break out it seems, I guess I’ll have to wait for tonight for another opportunity.

R_Carter · August 11, 2009, 5:29pm

My were bearish tonight. ‘The darkest hour is before the dawn’ chaps!

Looking at the GU 1h chart, its getting pretty close the the outer channel. Anyone think its lining up for a break up ‘long position’? Pretty solid support for many hours now.

OSKAR after last nights spot on prediction, I’d be interested to hear your thoughts? I have two postions long. Order book suugests the smart monet is slowly positioning itself for an up tomorrow.

Letseethepips · August 11, 2009, 5:39pm

When i turned off the computer this mourning i thought the 2 and 4 hr time frames looked like it would break are 1.6533 by tonight i see the 2 hr stalled and sputtered when i turned on the computer this afternoon .Lets see what the night brings us.

Oskar · August 11, 2009, 7:21pm

Can’t believe how slow it is all day. Yen and swiss franc where the only movers today. Right now it is to early to predict anything. Many times you can see how GU and EG are doing the opposite of each other and this 2 give you some telltale of a breakout, not today they are nicely in sync with each other. So I wait, “patience is a virtue :)”

R_Carter · August 11, 2009, 7:38pm

OSKAR

Thanks for getting back to me. I appreciate your input. Yep its sure hard to call on this one. Still made my play, got two big positions for a long. Now I’m really sticking my neck out

R_Carter · August 11, 2009, 8:29pm

OSKAR

OK here we go. Asian open. lets see if this time you can buy me the beers

TalonD · August 11, 2009, 8:34pm

ah predictions. for what it’s worth I’ve been expecting a big up move the last couple days. Due to an oversold indicator. yeah I know everyone frowns on indicators. But still, I can’t help playing around with them some.

-Mike

Clint · August 11, 2009, 8:38pm