Win ratio

good call, how long are you staying long?

by the way, I have a template in my metatrader called RCarter :smiley:
It has 2 MAs and a bolinger band

It looks like the GU is poised for a breakout to the upside.

But, predicting is for fools. We will trade what the market gives us — not what we imagine.

The triangle is doomed. It cannot survive — it’s running out of room.

More later.

Clint

TALOND

Well early days yet but (and i’m c**p as a pundit as OSKAR will no doubt inform you) but I will stay in till 1.66 and take on or around there using ma’s as always.

Sorry RCarter,
could not answer since I like Hellskitchen and that was just on TV. :slight_smile:
Actually, yen, I have a problem with them. Don’t know why. I watch but I trade it only if I get a MC too, not just BB and Volume. The MC is missing and will not happen right now for a while. So therefore, No beer for you. :slight_smile:
Look at the MC at GBPUSD M30, nice moving up, a bit slow, MC is just right as most of the time.

OSKAR

Well i’ll certainly take your advice under serious consdieration. Hells Kitchen is a great program, worthy of missed pip time. Did you know Gordon is a real shot stop in real life? Guess thats why hes full on in the programs.

You in EU or US? Judging from your spelling I guess EU? Must meet up for that famous beer hehe.

Notes on the London Overnight Breakout Strategy for Wednesday morning:

If the GU breaks to the upside, congestion could develop between tonight’s HIGH (1.6506) and last night’s HIGH (1.6524).
So, I will use last night’s HIGH + 9 pips for my Buy Entry. If that order is triggered, the subsequent up-move could be large.

I will use tonight’s LOW - 6 pips, in the usual manner, for my Sell Entry.

Resistance and Support:

Resistance levels are the same tonight as last night (repeated below). Support levels are the same tonight as last night, with the addition of Tuesday’s low (1.6430). Notice that Tuesday’s low is identical to Monday night’s Period LOW.

Technically, the broken channel upper boundary line, which was resistance before it was broken, is now support; but, I don’t expect it to be a factor Wednesday morning.

R – 1.6600 – century mark
R – 1.6585 – July 23 high
R – 1.6555 – July 28 high

S – 1.6430 – Aug 11 low
S – 1.6400 – century mark
S – 1.6381 – July 26 low
S – 1.6354 – July 16 low
S – 1.6337 – July 29 low

Scheduled News Releases:

There are 3 releases coming out of Britain between 08:30 and 09:30 GMT. (See post #808 for details)
If a breakout has not occurred by 08:30 GMT, these news releases may trigger one.

The actual Period HIGH is 1.6506 (bid). I will use last night’s HIGH, instead. The Period LOW is 1.6470.

My Entry Orders for Wednesday morning:

BUY (@ last night’s HIGH + 9 pips) 1.6533, SL(40) 1.6493, TP(20) 1.6553

SELL (@ LOW - 6 pips) 1.6464, SL(30) 1.6494, TP(20) 1.6444

Good luck, this morning.

Clint

I use a simple moving average to get a feel for price action especialy in the smaller time frames. My bias is to to the up side in the 4hr time frame but price as refused to budge so far just like the 2 hr.I use the 7 and 28 simple moving average the currency has broken thru the 28 average bottom on all time frames 1hr,2hr,4hr,8hr,but not the daily it has been sitting right on top of it for 7hrs 1.6476 as i type this so i guess they are going to leave it up to Frankfurt and London if this is going to be a longer trend? Turning neutral no bias tonight good luck!:slight_smile:

Order entered similiar to yours Clint.

Good luck to all.

Sell trade just completed successfully. Buy trade cancelled.

Good job. I’m out, as well.

Have a great day!

Pulled the trigger at 1.6474 with spread 1.6470 .I Left alot pips out there, left position at 1.6457.(7 for 8 122 pips demo)Looks like everybody had a goodnight, one heckeva run about 80 pips in 40 minutes not alot of retracement everybody have a great mourning.:slight_smile:

a good move down. So much for thinking it would go up eh?

Yup, I got 20 pips off the move down :), good stuff.

What caused the big dip today? was that a news item?

Bending the Rules:

Today’s Policy Statement by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) caused some wild swings in the major pairs, including the GBP/USD, for about 2 hours after the 2:15pm EDT announcement. When the dust had settled, the cable was within 25 pips of where it had been before the announcement.

If all this volatility had occurred prior to 2pm EDT (06:00 GMT), we wouldn’t be talking about it tonight. But, it occurred in the first two hours (2pm-4pm EDT) of Wednesday’s Overnight Period, giving us a rather ridiculous HIGH and LOW for the Period, if we strictly follow the rules for the Breakout Strategy.

So, what if we just ignore that volatility? In other words, what if we ignore the first two hours of tonight’s “box”, and use the remaining 8 hours to define our Strategy for tonight? The 5-minute chart below shows this option.

As of 8pm EDT (midnight GMT), I’m thinking this is the way to go. What do you guys think?

definately we should not include that move in our nightly range. It would have to be a big breakout to extend above or below that range.

Lesson learned, I should pay more attention to news releases, I wasn’t expecting that.

seems like maybe there could be a breakout strategy for news releases?

Trading with real money tonight for the first time. Wish me luck

Agree, I ignore the first 2 candles, does not look like a early prediction evening. :slight_smile:

Sounds like a good idea. The news created a large downswing and than up. If we look to the last time this occurred re: non farm payrolls on Aug 7, 2009 the market acted in similar wild fashion (large up swing and then down). After that Friday Aug 7 swing the market surpassed the swings low by only about 25 pips. Kind of close.

So assuming we have some decent volatility some time tomorrow (after 12 midnight EST) than your suggestion should prove to the safer/better one.

Any news coming out tomorrow?

U.S. news releases at 8:30am EDT should not affect tonight’s breakout.

More later.

Was just playing some back ground music tonight and thought this could have been written for us! :smiley: YouTube - Gerry Rafferty Get it right next time-Night owl 1979