Win ratio

Personally I never trade the news. Better to let it go the way it will go … wait and pick up the pips afterwards. Got almost all of them on the way up after the two wicks and colour change on the new break back up candle.

Consolidating the candles tonight sounds good to me!Iam also going live tonight but since were experimenting, i will be lite on the units.My bias is to the up side tonight 3rd day in a row daily candle laying on top of the moving average.Frankfurt sold, London fought it off.Lets see if Frankfurt gives in to night. Good Trading!:smiley:

here is my chart with four white lines. Which ones do you think should be the overnight range? I favor the two inside lines. Opinions?


Notes on the London Overnight Breakout Strategy for Thursday morning:

I still think it makes sense to ignore the first two hours (18:00-20:00 GMT) of tonight’s Period. I’m glad you all agree.

That leaves us with a well-defined 8-hour Period (instead of 10 hours), with the GU price in a very narrow 40-pip range.

Resistance and Support:

R – 1.6600 – century mark
R – 1.6585 – July 23 high
R – 1.6555 – July 28 high, also essentially August 12 high
R – 1.6524 – August 10 overnight period high

S – 1.6430 – August 11 low
S – 1.6390 – August 12 low

Scheduled News Releases:

Three U.S. news releases at 8:30am EDT (12:30 GMT), probably will not influence the breakout this morning. There are no scheduled news releases out of Britain for the rest of this week.

The Period HIGH is 1.6510 (bid). The Period LOW is 1.6470 (bid). Note that tonight’s LOW is the same as last night’s LOW.

Entry Orders for this morning:

BUY (@ HIGH + 9 pips) 1.6519, SL(30) 1.6489, TP(20) 1.6539

SELL (@ LOW - 6 pips) 1.6464, SL(30) 1.6494, TP(20) 1.6444 (Sell order, SL, and TP are the same as last night.)

Good luck this morning.

Clint

TALOND

Its been very slowly down for hours but keeps breaking up then down. Closed out hours ago. I’ll wait till London open? :slight_smile:

my buy and sell are nearly identical to Clint’s, tp of 14 and sl is 25

Robert, I need to come to London so I can look over your shoulder for a week and have a Guiness or two

TALOND

You could do a lot worse than CLINT. I’ve been in here for around 3 months and I have the utmost respect for anything Clint says. A more savvy trader you will find very hard to find… I’d hire him on the spot!

Anyways… your all more deadly serious than me… thought my ‘listening pleasure’ would amuse those amognst you who have been around the block a few times? Nope not a wisper!

Time I bowed out! I’ve been in this game 30 years and seen it all (good and bad). For goodness sake chaps, I trade a $40m account and can still see the funny side. Keep some humour in there… trust me its a long haul to the big money, really need to keep some balance.

Anyways… those that I have met, stay in touch, those that I haven’t send me a PM and i’ll get back to you. :smiley:

TALOND

Anytime… but please no Guiness! Take care.

I enjoyed the song Robert, 1978, I remember it well. I was only 17years old at the time. Wish I knew then what I know now but don’t we all? :wink:

I guess Frankfurt waved the white flag;).Took off like a rocket at the top of the hour it was nice to go live tonight.(7 for 8 122 pips demo)(1 for 1 23 pips live.)In manually at 1.6525 out 1.6548.

                               Everybody have a great mourning !:)

you was only a year younger than i am now :slight_smile:

lee :slight_smile:

Youre lucky, you know one thing that I wish I had known back then… you know about forex! Just think when I was that age computers were just getting started… I remember building my own digital calculator watch from a kit, and the commodore 64 and the trs80, my how things have changed.

Live long and prosper young man

One thing I like about Oanda, you can specify your tp and sl in pips so you don’t have to do the math.

That was a nice going last night. :slight_smile:

i agree oanda is by far the best broker i have ever used, however personally i would never specify my stops or tp’s in pips sticking to a strict ratio or typical value without giving real thought to why i have chosen those levels, instead i believe its far more profitable to set tp’s and sl’s a couple points before/after determined support and resistance.

for instance there is a very valid support 20 pips from your entry on a long trade, why set a 50 pip stop when it is more than likely to be hit if it breaches the support level thats only 20 pips away? why not just set your stop 25-30pip away and preserve a little of your capital

or many a time i see people preaching about a 2:1 r:r ratio whereby they use a 50 pip stop so they feel obliged to place their target 100 pips away when if they paid closer attention to their charts they would realise there is a significant resistance level 90 pips away resulting in them just missing their tp, price reversing and hitting their stop

obviously not suggesting you would do such a thing talond :stuck_out_tongue:

lee :slight_smile:

Cutting out the first two hours worked out very well. Great suggestion Clint.

Interesting enough had we kept the original time frame it appears we would have also had a successful trade but by my estimates only successful by about 21 pips. Hence only a 1 pip safety margin which could have easily been 19 pips total profit in which case we would have most likely been stopped out.

Sell order cancelled.

Thanks for the encouraging words, guys.

Robert, I’m not planning to be “hired” ever again. But, thanks for the vote of confidence.

Clint

65 pips for the week so I’m out now ignoring Friday morning’s trade.
Nice. :slight_smile:

Actually I’m greenhorn enough I might do something like that so thanks for giving me that to think about.

I’ve gotten a lot of good advice today

Talon you are in the sameboat as iam in a live account.What percentage of capital are you willing to risk per trade.I am thinking the most iam willing to risk is about 5 percent((it was 2).Let me throw that out there to anybody else who is reading this.It seems the closer you close your profit the higher the win percentage and less drawdown but a smaller profit.The more you let your trade run a lower win percentage a chance of more drawdown but a higher profit.I guess there is a middle road there.:rolleyes:With this method as Trevor said on the begginning of this thread he had tight profit stop loss and a hefty win percentage.I am guessing change your risk of capital depending on the method?

Last night was my first real money trade so I was kind of conservative only risking about 1% capital, I’ll increase that though to maybe 3 percent. It’s hard to know where to put my takeprofit and stoploss, there have been several variations so far in the thread.

So how about a poll

Is there any consensus on how many pips take profit and how many stop loss for this breakout strategy?

Would it vary depending on the price action like span of the overnight range or the average bar height or support / resistance ?

Last night I had a 14 tp and 25 sl that was kind of arbitrary. If I had been awake at the time I probably would have let that profit run with the trend a little more and closed it manually.

Right now there is a spike up going on, what’s causing that? Ah! I see what caused it… Tokyo just opened.