For those trading Trevor’s G/U Breakout Strategy, the next “overnight” period, which begins in about 3 hours, will be interesting. Fifteen minutes after the beginning of the period, the FOMC Statement and the Fed Funds Rate will be released.
If the GBP/USD reacts strongly to these releases, then the next “overnight” period High, or Low (or both) could be established within the first 30 - 45 minutes of the period. Then, we will have to decide whether these High and Low prices are valid for the Breakout Strategy. There are no rules for this. It will be a judgment call for each of us to make.
We can compare notes on this in about 12 hours, after the dust has settled, and before we have to place our entry orders.
Here are the times for the “overnight” period, and for the FOMC/Fed Funds releases, in several time-zones:
What I meant was from ~14:15 (EDT) till midnight is a loooong time. Since we don’t place anything before midnight, the news should have settled and everybody “licked his wounds” and forgot already.
p.s.- it appears that your chart is a chart of BID prices, but I can’t be sure… I am able to click a button and switch back and forth from BID … Are you able to do this on your platform?
Hmmmmm.
I have never tired that. :o :o
Never needed to.
But I think I can so I will see what I can do.
Just been thinking about this R:R a bit more.
It seems the main strategy in gunning for 5-10 pips with a trailing stop is that you are highly likely to make those pips on a breakout so it doesn’t matter so much having a 30pip SL leaving it room to breathe. The probability of ending up with positive pips is high.
If we go for more than 5-10 pips then there doesn’t seem any benefit in making this 3:2 risk:reward or other nominations, we should just go for 1:1. This is because the probability of reaching more on your target is less than the method above.
[B]Is 23-30 pips either side of the entry enough or too much for this pair…is then the next question.[/B]
I’m not sure about the benefit of the 2 lots system unless you are going to use it in conjunction with S&R lines. The 2 lots system relies on at least 50% of your trades running further assuming the other 50% come back to stop you out a break even, in which case you are probably going at slightly better than 1:1.
For example, your 1st target profit is 20pips, you close half (equivalent of 10 pips). If PA comes back to hit your stop you have only made 10 pips and not locked in any of the other half, In which case you have risked 1 to gain 0.5. When used in conjunction with S&R lines, you lock in the profit AND allow it to run further. However, this is generally used when targeting more than we are here.
SanMiguel
KIS(S) is always the answer. Last (S) is in brackets because anybody looking for answer is not (stupid).
Trading manually is the best. If it gets to much then make a TS and SL and walk away. Come back later, if trade is still going delete the TS SL and watch it again.
Simple
Happy Trading
I did, but it is lousy to get up at midnight.
Tymen is not a “Team-player” and doing it for us. Brrrrrr
I also trade it according to your thread page 2 setup. Made only a few pips so far because I was to eager to go back to bed again.
So far, Thanks for it and I keep it playing. I was already thinking how to change my “sleeping” habit.
Happy Trading
25/06/2009: +26pips on GBPUSD today. Looking like +16 on EURGBP as well.
I’m wondering if I’m doubling my risk by using 2 pairs with this method both with GBP?
EURGBP is very slow but behaves itself well.
Does anyone think there is any merit in gunning for a target that is equal to the height of the low volume area including placing stops at each end of the high and low or halfway in the box for a 1:2? I guess most breakout trading looks for at least a move equal to the height of the box…
…not that I’m having any problems trading the current method
Just an idea…
the wonderfull thing about this stratergy is you can pretty much do what you want with it, it is a fanstastic entry point to start with so thats most of the work done, now you can play around with your stops and TP’s to suit your trading style
so answer- go ahead knock your self out
there are millions of ways you can improve this to your liking if you so wish
True, I guess you adapt it to whatever your trading style is and mine is breakout trading.
The thing I’m most concerned about with this strategy is the placing of the stop loss, which is why I was looking at a few ways. I mean the 26-30 SL has been fine so far but just occasionally it’s not quite enough only to have PA move back. Also, often the breakout goes further but then that’s being greedy
well i suppose if you wanted to be more hands you could move your stops accordingly like this morning for example there was plenty of time to add a stop at +10 when it got to 15 it then shot to 30 pips profit by this time i got out i then could have in heinsigt instead of taking profit placed a stop at +25 or something becuase it then carried on to +60/70 so you know there’s plenty of room for improvement
This morning (New York time) was another winner for me, as well. I’m 6 for 6 using this strategy now.
But, this morning wasn’t easy for me. I agonized for a long time before even placing my pending orders. By that time, my chart was a bloody mess with lines, channels, and various other scribble, as I tried to decide whether to accept the Federal Reserve whip-saw as the period High and Low.
Finally, that’s what I settled on. On my 5-minute chart, I marked the 2:15pm (EDT) candle High, and the 2:35pm candle Low, threw 6 pips on each one, entered my pending orders, and walked away from the computer.
When it came, the breakout to the downside was a thing of beauty.
One more opportunity (about 19 hours from now), and we’ll be done for this week.
I had a similar problem myself. In the end I decided to ignore both the 7pm and 8pm (GMT +1) candles, as I thought there might still be some fall out from the Fed Reserve release. I started from the 9pm candle. My high/low according to Oanda were 1.6468 and 1.6400 respectively.
I am glad to say I managed to grap my 30 pips today.
So far I am 4 for 5 (that’s with a 30 pip SL + TP).
Can’t wait for tomorrow. I really like this system. Thanks again Trevpick
for introducing it to us.
