USD/TRY: an incredible pair.
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  1. #1
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    Default USD/TRY: an incredible pair.

    Hello peeps!

    I see so much is spent talking about EUR/USD...

    but I would like to introduce a currency pair that is

    completely out of the popularity contest:

    US Dollar - Turkish Lira.

    Just to give you an idea, this screenshot shows

    you the monthly candles in the last few months:

    Name:  Screenshot_2017-01-11-06-47-59.jpg
Views: 23
Size:  31.1 KB

    Since the beginning of October this pair has ripped up

    to bag an incredible, unbelievable, mind-blowing

    NINE THOUSAND PIPS.

    The average daily rallies in this pair are

    600-800 pips...

    The negative rollover on buying does not

    apply if you trade it intraday, and if you do

    trade outside the European open (7am GMT)

    then spreads can be high, typically 40 - 60 pips,

    but some of the rallies happen in the Asian-European

    hours transition... With moves of that magnitude,

    it matters little if you pay a higher spread, because the

    rewards more than make up for the trade cost.

    Trading it with FXCM, as I am, you will then get a spread

    down to about 10 pips as the European hours liquidity

    kicks in, and may catch further rallies.

    I have lost some money on this pair in December as

    price chopped around, and also this week trying to

    short the pair... I am learning to trend-trade again,

    and this is a great pair to practise on...

    Today alone I made about 1,100 Pounds trading

    between 5am and 5.30am GMT...

    Handled carefully, this pair is one of the best movers in

    town and can give you great returns.

    Thank you for listening.

    Happy Trading and Happy 2017!

  2. #2
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    great hint PMH

    hope the noobs will consider trading it and not start discussing the obvious and expressing "wisdom" that even kids know lol

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by TURBONero View Post
    great hint PMH

    hope the noobs will consider trading it and not start discussing the obvious and expressing "wisdom" that even kids know lol
    Haha I am not hopeful but the info is out there and the hints have very much been dropped...

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by PipMeHappy View Post
    Trading it with FXCM, as I am, you will then get a spread down to about 10 pips as the European hours liquidity kicks in, and may catch further rallies.

    Interesting: that actually sounds like not a bad spread at all, for something with that kind of ATR/movements available?

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by lexys View Post
    Interesting: that actually sounds like not a bad spread at all, for something with that kind of ATR/movements available?
    It is incredible, really

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by lexys View Post
    Interesting: that actually sounds like not a bad spread at all, for something with that kind of ATR/movements available?
    It is quite amazing

  7. #7
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    Hi all, I've been a long time lurker. So this is my first post. Decide to post this as this pair has been close to my heart as I've traded this on and off for the past couple of years.

    I feel that this pair is a double edged sword, and very unpredictable. Couple of years ago, I blew my account because of this pair.

    Not sure about other brokers, but I'm using oanda, and when the pair starts moving, the spread can go up to 200 pips, though usually it hovers from anything around 15 pips to 100 pips. If you trade this pair, you will need to look at the spread if your broker is using variable spread.

    Because of this, it's very difficult to put stop losses on the pair for me, as the spread can just increase and trigger it.

    It's true that if played properly, it's very profitable, but I believe the Turkish govt will eventually move to stop the continuous devaluation of their currency, and it'll probably be a black swan event.

    For those thinking of carry trade for this pair on the short side, don't think about it as from personal experience, I've also lost a significant amount from this.

    You will need to reduce the lot size as the moves are very huge and you will have no time to react.

    Trade safely.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by rankorth View Post
    Hi all, I've been a long time lurker. So this is my first post. Decide to post this as this pair has been close to my heart as I've traded this on and off for the past couple of years.

    I feel that this pair is a double edged sword, and very unpredictable. Couple of years ago, I blew my account because of this pair.

    Not sure about other brokers, but I'm using oanda, and when the pair starts moving, the spread can go up to 200 pips, though usually it hovers from anything around 15 pips to 100 pips. If you trade this pair, you will need to look at the spread if your broker is using variable spread.

    Because of this, it's very difficult to put stop losses on the pair for me, as the spread can just increase and trigger it.

    It's true that if played properly, it's very profitable, but I believe the Turkish govt will eventually move to stop the continuous devaluation of their currency, and it'll probably be a black swan event.

    For those thinking of carry trade for this pair on the short side, don't think about it as from personal experience, I've also lost a significant amount from this.

    You will need to reduce the lot size as the moves are very huge and you will have no time to react.

    Trade safely.
    Thanks for that, rankorth, very sorry it has hurt your account... Yes, volatility of this kind is always a double-edged sword...

  9. #9
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    Have you jinxed this pair, PipMeHappy?
    It was in a decade long trend until yesterday

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos Ray View Post
    Have you jinxed this pair, PipMeHappy?
    It was in a decade long trend until yesterday
    Haha

    I think you'll have to ask Mr. Trump... oh wait, he doesn't take questions haha

    By the way, in the last 24hrs. reports have emerged of a major punch-up in the Tukrkish

    parliament - broken noses, bites, and one parliamentarian grabbed by the neck - as the majority government

    wants to give the president (Erdohan) executive powers, basically stripping parliamentarians

    of any autonomy as he can veto their decisions.

    So the USDTRY falling has nothing to do with fundamentals from the Turkish side, I guess...

    perhaps it is overdone to the upside, or perhaps it was Trump's speech that made it go PoP!

    I have gone short a couple of times already today, as it has come down about 1500 pips already.

    Money money money

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