GBP.USD & EUR.USD - Proof of Profits Verified

anon46773462 · March 7, 2019, 6:10pm

Maybe but it is not dead yet!

Although my own hourly chart did also turn back from neutral to negative about 7 hrs back, it is still behaving very neutrally and the daily chart is still trying to look positive.

The interesting thing is that the Daily pivot line, which I treat as a kind of directional fulcrum, has been entirely flat for two days - that is really quite rare!

It is a really frustrating market this week and not just with this particular pair.

My general “feeling” on this is that the GBP is still potential waiting for an excuse to burst higher but is not given any fuel to do so and it is just drifting aimlessly with the currents in the meantime.

I read this morning that the EU has requested the UK to give them some viable options to consider and that they are prepared to work non-stop over the weekend to study them and try and reach a solution - - - and I thought, if that is the case, what on earth have both sides been doing for the last week!!! This is such a pathetic situation over such an important issue that has now been going on for 2 years already, and now they may still want more time…

I have kind of given up with GBP issues until something is sorted here. There are other fish in the sea which are swimming in a much clearer direction (and it is not oil this time! !

I won’t generally post charts on your thread but I thought I might add this one, if that is ok purely to illustrate what I have been watching in this rather exceptional and drawn-out scenario.

This is my hourly chart and this downward drift seemed to start last Friday in that blue circle when my short-tern band turned pale blue. I had sold it on Mon as I mentioned somewhere earlier in that red circle but closed out prematurely with only a small profit.

That red rectangle shows where it turned neutral. The short term band tuerned up and yellow but was still engulfed by that grey shadow which is a proxy for the 4-hour chart - which was why I couldn’t join the trade!

Now it has turned down again and, in theory, the vulnerability is, in the near term, on the downside…

Jahruhay · March 7, 2019, 10:52pm

Are you trading just the 4H chart?

anon76360754 · March 8, 2019, 12:29am

Hello @Jahruhay

Yes, I do just use the 4H chart for a foundation of my analysis - I don;t go any lower for analysis.

anon76360754 · March 8, 2019, 12:33am

This above quote made me smile, it’s my own thoughts exactly!

Manxx - you’ll never escape oil - it’s in your blood (well I hope it’s not literally in your blood, that would be kinda bad…but i’ll take your Samsung S10 should the worst happen)

I don’t disagree with this and what’s most annoying is that I watching a trade based on statistical evidence cost me money - I had several opportunities to close this little sh!t out today at breakeven.

anon46773462 · March 8, 2019, 7:26am

This is indeed the dilemma with this kind of trading set up - its a real sit on hands situation!

But this kind of approach is built on a statistical model that anticipates, accommodates and accounts for losses within its overall structure, and so this trade is not in any way a “failure”, it is routine - besides, is it not still live?

It is also mentionable that your choice of stop level here again appears extremely accurate. It has so far avoided being accidently randomly hit by being too close and yet has also survived the downdraft in the wake of the Euro down move (which also seems to indicate GBP’s underlying optimism pending some kind of good news factor).

I guess this is a somewhat unusual situation where the trade is stuck in a rangy area for some days, but it occured to me, do you actually have any kind of time factor in your method? I note that you close any unfilled orders on Thursdays, but do you have any kind of time-based or performance-based exit criteria?

For example, failure to make a new high towards target by midweek, etc or raise stop to B/E when price reaches 0.5 of target? These are just illustrations of what I mean, certainly not suggestions!!

The dilemma here is that the method itself is specifically designed to bypass the personal discretionary element and yet, occasionally, the discretion is so “obvious” that it is almost impossible not to interfere - but by doing so, the entire statistical basis of the method collapses.

But this is just one trade……

Trendswithbenefits · March 8, 2019, 10:31pm

GBPUSD 4hour

Feel free to use a simpler method that works, it will help you with true market direction…

Yep… Just some friendly banter between two people that have the same underlying goal

anon76360754 · March 8, 2019, 10:34pm

haha, touché @Trendswithbenefits

I certainly deserved that one!

I’ve literally just posted on that thread that you linked - I’m honestly curious on how it can be used as a filter.

anon76360754 · March 9, 2019, 3:33pm

Week 11 of 52 - Trade Levels

GBP.USD - This week I’m looking for either a long at 1.2989 or a short at 1.3242. This would be an OCO set-up where one cancels the other upon being triggered. In both instances I will be using a 60pip stop and a 120pip TP based on the ATR which dictates this. The position size will be 0.32 std lots which represents a 2% risk of account.

EUR.USD - This week i’m looking for a short at 1.1272 with a 40pip stop and a 80pip TP based on the ATR which again dictates this. The position size will be 0.47 std lots which represents a 2% risk of account.

Here is the screenshot visually showing the levels that i’m looking at this week

Let’s hope this week at the very least covers the loss that was encountered last week - as always these trades are listed here before they are taken and not in hindsight - it’s a wonderful skill to have when you can look back on charts and say "this would have worked "

Update - GBP.USD Triggered

Not the strongest start to a long position, but it’s in profit for now nonetheless. If we can stay above the 1.300 handle then it should be alright for now. This trade will be switched to risk off at midnight tonight where the SL will be moved to the entry price.

anon46773462 · March 11, 2019, 1:39pm

Another well-placed entry level!

It seems that, although you do not base trade decisions on fundamentals, you actually have a Brexit vote trade here, as that will most probably resolve the outcome of this trade one way or the other from here! - unless, of course, it hits target already today, since it is on the way there.

Well done so far…!

anon76360754 · March 11, 2019, 1:44pm

Thanks @anon46773462,

Can’t complain thus far - it’s a pretty looking 4H candle. Funny how a systematic approach can often line up to the market, even with all this news playing havoc. It certainly makes up for last week… but the fat lady has not yet sung!

anon76360754 · March 11, 2019, 4:34pm

Update: GBP.USD Trade - TP level reached

126pips / +4.12% gain

We also took a gain of 1.63% today in the discretionary account.

March Summary month to date:

anon46773462 · March 11, 2019, 4:36pm

Congratulations on a very professional trade setup! Very impressive selection of levels - and direction, of course!

anon76360754 · March 11, 2019, 4:41pm

Looks good - The TP was two tenths of a pip below what is the daily high so far, so pretty damn accurate thus far (it’s already retraced 18 pips from the high)

Should have kept it open, ha

anon46773462 · March 11, 2019, 5:26pm

Oh well, never mind - try to do better next time!!!

There, you see? That’s how markets keep us in line when we forget to be humble before the Price Master!!

Once again, well done! It is always so satisfying to see a weekly trade come home already on Monday!

anon76360754 · March 11, 2019, 5:45pm

Ha, yes indeed - getting sick of not picking absolute tops and bottoms

Quite right, it’s not often that it happens - although what’s interesting is that weekly trades which are triggered on a Monday have an overwhelmingly higher probability of achieving the TP, and in a much shorter time frame - the later you move into the week for a trade entry and the odds diminish ( I don’t even bother with Fridays if the signal is not triggered)

I’ve looked into this, it’s a constant variable that happens month in month out - I can only put it down to being aligned with the market at the right time.

momoisnyc · March 11, 2019, 6:22pm

Funny I was looking at a possible long GBP/USD when I woke up in the morning and was too sluggishly lazy with my morning routine and then I see GBP just having an onslaught against CAD, USD, JPY and I’m like well there goes a easy setup for the week. Good stuff though!!

anon76360754 · March 11, 2019, 6:33pm

Yea, it was initially a very early trade - think I opened it manually at about 1am this morning UK time.

However I was eying up the low of Friday 22nd February for quite some time and took the chance prior any confirmation being given. As Manxx mentioned previously, the boot up the butt in GBP was helped by Brexit news / rumors too.

A good combination of news and a sound technical level.

If we look at the daily chart then there is an overwhelmingly strong bull signal forming

Not surprising either as currently 72% of traders / speculators are net Short GBP.USD - they may well get burnt and i’d expect that position sizing skew to become more extreme as we progress with the week.

momoisnyc · March 11, 2019, 7:37pm

Truth mate. Great observation on your end and shoutout to your Babypips spotlight - I think it was a breathe of fresh air calling out the mates with all these astronomical returns with nothing to show for it.

anon76360754 · March 11, 2019, 10:13pm

Update EUR.USD - Trade Triggered

What a move - talk about manipulation when London and New York are closed

@anon46773462 could this be the perfect entry, ha!.. probably not, only one tenth of a pip below the high

However, this level, like the GU trade was called over the weekend…it has to have some merit

anon28270612 · March 12, 2019, 12:21am

@BaconSandwich