Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

Your logic there assumes that price will reach your 1.7x target [B]as often[/B] as it does when it’s at 3x.

Why do you focus only on R:R ? Obviously the 1:1.7 will be hit more often than the 1:3 one.

Trading results are a function of 3 things: [B]Winrate , R:R and Trade Frequency[/B]. You have to figure out which combination of these 3 variables has the best[B] long-term growth expectancy[/B] for [B]YOUR[/B] method.

If it’s not clear, a

  1. 90% hit-rate system that has an average R:R of 1:1 and that provides an average number of 2 setups per week

is [B]NOT[/B] better in terms of long-term expectancy than

  1. 60% hit-rate system that has an average R:R of 1:1 and that provides an average number of 12 setups per week

  2. Expectancy per week = (90% * 1R - 10% * 1R) * 2 = 1.6*R

  3. Expectancy per week = (60% * 1R - 40% * 1R) * 12 = 2.4*R

That being said, there is no standard choice that is better overall , because you have to apply the trade management to a SPECIFIC PERSONAL TRADING STYLE.

It is understandable why many people focus on having a high winrate above all else. They feel they are RIGHT most of the time and don’t care if there was a better way that they could play the setups that would make them more profitable. Of course, an argument could be made for the fact that a certain style keeps them in their comfort zone and that in turn keeps them from making stupid mistakes (Can’t force a trading style onto someone).

The main goal in this business is to [B]MAKE MONEY[/B] . Not to be right 99% of the time, not to catch huge runners of a gazilion pips and not to trade every single tick of every single day.

GL in finding your sweet spot in this equation :slight_smile:

[video=youtube_share;j9_JgVTuU-Y]http://youtu.be/j9_JgVTuU-Y[/video]

[B]GLGT[/B] :57:


There’s a piece on pivot points in the Core Principles video at the start of What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader… Still Wants To Know.

See here for details of Pivots:
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/49172-glossary-ict-terms-abbreviations.html

Cable Analysis For Week Commencing 07-01-2013


Daily MF Bearish
4 HR MF & MS Bearish
1HR MS Bearish (Currently MF Bullish - Aiming For OTE)

Sweet Spot Confluences - Daily & Weekly Trinity Oversold Regions

USDX Bullish Confluence

That’s what I’ll be watching for next week anyway.

Fiber Analysis To Follow:

Fiber Analysis

Daily MF Bearish
4 HR MF & MS Bearish
1 HR Bearish (Currently MF Bullish)

Some Confluences around 79& Retracement With Old Asian Sessions H/L’s Around 1.3230
Also Trinities Are Oversold In This Region

USDX Bullish Confluence

Doesn’t Seem As Clear As The Cable So I’ll Be Watching Both But Will Probably Enter A Limit For The Cable.



woolo, you make a good point that I agreed with for very long, but if I may present the other side of the coin in the way I’ve found it working for me the past year or so…

Taking half your position off for profit when profit equals risk, you pay for your stop. In other words, price can now go all the way back and stop you out and you lost nothing because now that loss is just the other half of your original position. +30 pips, -30 pips.

I take it one step further in that I take half off as above and then take another half of the remaining position off at my predetermined target. Then I leave that last small position to be a possible runner with the trend.

This has one LOVELY effect - your trading balance keeps growing and growing every single day. You don’t go for the home runs anymore, but having this system work as a machine that just keeps churning out profits day after day is 100x more rewarding for me personally than anything I’ve tried before. It is, after all, much easier to reach those initial target 9/10 times than it is to hold on to a position for days, going for the big, single position profit.

Give it a thought and tell me what you think :wink:

Cheers

…also what DGB said, he speaks truth! Hehehe.

Hey guys, Let’s see what do you think of this trade…
Fiber long at 70,5% retracement from the fibo low to high of the past month, but what about the daily market flow?
I think the monthly and the weekly flows are up, but hey, correct me if I’m wrong… I’m just a newbie.
I’d like to have your opinion just to make sure if I’m on the right track or not on my study of ICT teachings…


Hey Luca,

I had the same trade on Friday but closed it due to the weekend. I agree with the above as I have the Weekly & Monthly Flows as up but the Daily as down. That’s why I’m looking for a selling opportunity.

How you manage that trade though is for you to decide as you need to trade your plan.

Good luck with it.

Tommy

So for you doesn’t matter if the higher time frames show opposite MF? You put your attention just on the time frame you wanna trade?

I have a day job and unfortunately I can trade just in the evening (from 7 pm to 10 pm GMT) and of course mostly based on Daily time frame. Based on ICT teachings, which is the method that I should use and where can I find info on that one?

Sorry for my bad english guys

Hey Luca, the English is fine…

What I currently see is the Daily showing a Bearish Market Flow although the Structure is still intact until we break below 1.2873.

Monthly Flows are Up on the Weekly & Monthly but the Weekly chart has just posted a new Swing High therefore short term it looks bearish as it attempts a new Swing Low which helps me in my Daily chart Bearish view. Also if January and February are down months too, then a new Swing High will form on the Monthly.

I too have a day job that’s why I’m trying to trade off of the D1 chart with the 4HR & 1HR as entry charts.

Hope that helps a little more as to why I arrived at my current view.

In terms of specific video’s take a look at Clint’s thread which also has Peterma’s excellent video log too. I’m sure you’ll find more than one video that will help. Link below:

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/49172-glossary-ict-terms-abbreviations.html

Tommy

EDIT: Also note that next weeks price action could change my above opinion and just as easily be the swing low on the Weekly too should the next two weeks not break last weeks low. The above is just what I am looking at today and should it continue that way I look to trade. Otherwise I will re-assess according to the price action.

First of all thanx for ur time. I’ve so much to learn…
How can u base ur entry on 1HR and 4 HR with a day job?
I thought that I had to use the daily for entry and analize Weekly and mothly, but maybe you have a different approach that i’d love to learn… of course if u wanna share it, because i think the majority of traders here have a day job and are forced to a daily chart

My brief analysis using only the higher time frames with key S&R levels marked up:

USDX:

Using the image generated by the online USDX chart I posted a while back (5H TF):

We took out a few highs on the way up, but ultimately bounced off that 81.00 level which coincided nicely with the 79% retracement level. Im anticipating some sell off here, as for how much, targeting the 80.20/80.00 levels initially should we move convincingly in that direction.

EUR/USD: (4H TF)

We bounced off the OTE sweet spot @ 1.30

Market structure long term: bullish - 1.2880 low maintained.
Market structure short term: bullish - 1H TF broken swing high @ 1.3050

At the start of the week, if we maintain the low formed on Friday (confirming bullish MS), I’ll be looking to buy around 1.3020, maybe higher depending on how much price moves, holding a portion on until the OTE sweet spot zone of the current range down move, that sweet spot coming in around the 1.3210 or so. I will be stalking the big figure one way or another should we make it up there.

Im anticipating a move up, whether or not we will continue to push higher remains to be seen but we’ve moved quite a bit lower, so a bit of a bounce now before pushing lower could be in the works. I wont be aggressively selling until we get a reasonable bounce back up, unless price dictates otherwise.

GBP/USD: (4H TF)

If you take the full range of the current move up, then we didnt quite get to the OTE sweet spot, but if you measure the range from the swing low formed at 1.5880 then the OTE sweet spot of 1.6030 may have been a nice position to get in long (using only the higher time frame - if you check the 15M TF the nested OTE on Friday was around the 1.6020 level for the long during NYO).

Market structure long term: bullish - 1.6003 low maintained.
Market structure short term: bullish (only just) - Very minor swing at 1.6080 broken during the move up on Friday (broken at the level: 1.60824 - 2.4 pips! - but Id like a strong confirmation of this at the start of the week)

The fact we maintained this low @ 1.6003 indicates to me that we may see a bit of a rally up, confirming the bounces in both the EUR/USD and USDX around their corresponding sweet spot levels. Daily candle on the Friday looks like a hammer forming…

If we maintain the 1.6010 low, then I will be looking to buy into the middle of the week, possibly up into the OTE zone of the current down trend range. That spot being the 1.6270 level. Also a predetermined key level, marked up on the chart (a lot of old highs around this level, check out the daily TF).

Should we move higher, I’ll be waiting to see if we get a high or low formed on Tuesday/Wednesday before selling again.


Comments welcomed on the above (especially around MS), but, it wont surprise me if we see something entirely different at the start of the week :smiley:

I’ll be watching Market Structure in more detail this year, to try and nail price movements to help get in sync with the trends, be that a continuation or a reversal. Its such a powerful concept!

Hey Luca, no problem. I’ve done my analysis for next week which is posted a few posts up. I’ll monitor these levels during the week and if I’m am away at work during this time, I’ll monitor on my Android device. As my levels are pre-determined if price is moving towards these while I’m away from the computer at least I know what I am planning to do. I’ll also set limit orders in case I am not able to check the charts during the day.

So what I have done is took the main swing from the daily then zoomed in for a closer look on the 4HR & 1HR charts to see if I can see if my OTE levels confirm with any S&R, Asian session H/L’s, Traders Trinity etc.

That’s what works for me at the minute anyway but I too still have loads to learn and still do not use many of the other concepts as I would like to primarily get used to using what I have mentioned. Once I feel confident in this, I’ll then look to add other tools to the analysis.

Hope that makes sense / helps a little.

I’m sure you have but maybe start going through the videos again from beginning to see if it improves watching a second time around. That’s what I am currently doing and will do again and again over the years I’d imagine…

Good Luck

Hi, I am relatively new and still only trade EURUSD. I have rediscovered ICT concepts having been lured away by FX hype at my cost! Clearly I wasn’t ready but now i am back and thankfully now starting to become profitable (for how long not sure). It is reassuring my take on EURUSD is pretty much in line with your analysis. Little bit more of a confidence boost and I look forward to learning from all contributors on this great thread. You never know, I may reach a point where I can offer something myself :slight_smile:

Good luck all

Yen you think its done… it’s not!

Doodle Session and thoughts on Yen per Simr inquiry… not advice as usual. Just thinking visually for those paying attention. I draw more focus as to why I called Eur/Jpy boom vertical in November… and 1550 pips later… here we are. For those wondering… no I am not talking in this like many of my Livestreams… I am pointing to things of interest on the charts over my favorite form of music. For those musically picky… replace with your favorite tracks of choice or enjoy the silence… hey that’s a Depeche Mode track! :wink:

[B]GLGT[/B] :57:

As true as this may be, we have all seen many times when the Cable isn’t correlating at all with the Fiber and we are left tool-less. Bonds, COT, USDX, even the S&P or DJIA are other divergences we can be watching for. Where ever the banks are, they cannot hide from us.

Welcome. I’m sure you’ll add to this great discussion.

That’s a world class analysis, Jonny.

Larry Williams talks about range expansion and range contraction. He says range expansion in whatever TF tends to have the open and close very near the highs and lows. Range contraction tends to have opens a closes away from the extremes. We get in during range contraction so we can benefit from range expansion. I think we’ll see a little range contraction early in the week, as Friday had a very long wick. Would love to see a run up to the WPP on the Fiber for another nice expansion down.