COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 153
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  1. #1521
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
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    bangkok
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    826
    Afternoon guys!

    So I've been working on my system since early morning and had done some revision. Let me know what you think, FE you might want to print this one out and put the older version in the bin. I'm excited about the revised version

    And here's something on intermarket analysis where I got my inspiration on entry signals for trend following system for dollar pairs : Intermarket Analysis [ChartSchool]

    PS: The source was mentioned by Peter a while ago so this should qualify
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by rookie39; 10-11-2014 at 05:11 AM.

  2. #1522
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
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    356
    Morning Guys!

    Alright, COT is out, database updated, here goes my analysis!

    Since you guys wanted me to focus on Metals, I'll do just that.

    Gold

    Right now, I'm bullish on the instrument, although it's still too early to establish a long position in my opinion.

    First of all, the COT Index remains unchanged, leaving the Commercials at 88%, Funds at 18%.

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    The Movement Index of the Commercial entities is currently at 26. No signal here. Since the dominant trend is bearish, I'd need at least a -40 value to take interest.

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    Open Interest is still at a 3 years low. Usually market bottoms comes hand-in-hand with low OI readings. It is important to note, that Commercials are reducing their short positions while accumulating longs.

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    Commercial Positions / Open Interest: Nothing significant here. The CL reading rose a shy 1%.

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    CP/OI Index (Willco) remains unchanged, at 76%.

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    To summarize: I'm sitting the action out for the moment.

  3. #1523
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    Dec 2013
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    bangkok
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    Morning BB!

    Do you analyze other metals besides gold ? Silver, platinum and copper ?

  4. #1524
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    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
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    356
    Silver

    Now, we're talking!

    According to the COT Index, the Commercials are 2% away to reach extreme readings. But wait, what have we here? That's right, the Funds are at an extreme!

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    What does that mean? Nothing at the moment. Situations like this (extreme readings) serves a signal for me to apply Technical Analysis to find potential entry points. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

    Whoa! Another signal from the Movement Index!

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    Question: What does a +40 reading means in the case of Silver?

    If your answer is anything other than nothing, than I managed to trick you! That's right, since Silver is currently down, we are looking for at least a -40 value. So no signal here

    Open Interest: Seems like Silver is HOT at the moment. People want their piece of the action! In fact, OI rose to it's 3 years high!

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    I need further studies on high OI with falling prices to make an accurate statement. Anyway, I would not put too much emphasis on the phenomenon. It simply means that there are more contracts in this market than in the last 3 years.

    CP/OI: That is a bummer! Nothing exciting here. CL & CS rose by 1%.

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    How about the CP/OI Index (Willco)?

    Commercials are buying like mad! The value of the indicator is currently at 90%, which means that they have a bullish bias.

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    To Summarize: I'm staying out for now for the lack of extreme Commercial COT Index reading.

  5. #1525
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    Oct 2014
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    Hungary
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    Yep, but apparently, I can only attach 5 images / post

    I'll upload that analysis of Platinum, Palladium and Cooper afternoon.
    Last edited by BBalazs; 10-11-2014 at 04:57 AM.

  6. #1526
    Join Date
    May 2014
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    971
    Quote Originally Posted by BBalazs View Post
    Yep, but apparently, I can only attach 5 images / post

    I'll upload that analysis of Platinum, Palladium and Cooper afternoon.
    I'm sorry to trouble but since no one else does WILLCO. It would be great if you do the WILLCO for currencies, and report if there is something significant.

    I'm working on my report as well now.

  7. #1527
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,392

    Default COT Report 10.10.2014.

    So, let’s see what the COT Report tells us this week. Very important that the percentile factors and net positions will always show the non-commercial speculators vs. data from the previous week:

    AUD: 35.23% current vs. 48.85% previous. Net position: -26 486 current vs. -2 017 previous. The difference in net position change is huge.

    CAD: 45.65% vs. 46.76%. Net position: 100 900 vs. 89 376. Nothing special.

    CHF: 35.70% vs. 32.82%. Net position: -11 789 vs. -12 557. Nothing special.

    GBP: 49.42% vs. 51.71%. Net position: -1 075 vs. 3 589. Nothing special.

    NZD: 49.75% vs. 50.15%. Net position: -100 vs. 64. With the net position change from positive to negative, the last bastion has fallen vs. the USD. This fact is more interesting than important.

    EUR: 22.83% vs. 24.68%. Net position: -146 212 vs. -141 965.

    JPY: 15.31% vs. 16.55%. Net position: -112 551 vs. -120 878. Nothing special.

    USD: the USD index lost from extreme value, maybe Peter can say something about that.

    Silver: the COT index gives a buy signal, and open interest is high, meaning many are looking at the market and there is a lot of interest at the current levels. Still, the COT net positions reading are not at extreme levels. With gold we are also not on extreme levels, although COT index gives also a buy signal. What is important to mention is that with gold we do not have so much OI compared to the last years. I believe we have to wait with those market bottoms yet and see when COT reaches the extreme reading. I am looking forward to see what Balazs has to say about it. Actually I see that at the time of my writing Balazs is already done with his analysis, I only have to read it. Well, you definitely attached more pictures than all of us together :-) What here I have to say is that since I follow the report, we have the most negative reading again on MXN and BRL. I think these lines up great on the concerns about economic slowdown in the world with geopolitical risk on again and investors take their money away from exotic currencies and put it into safe havens.

    Trade setups and analysis for the week:

    Actually I do not plan to enter new trades. My long-term view of the markets did not change. I am bullish on USD and GBP and mostly bearish on EUR, CHF and JPY. The JPY is at the moment strong but only because of geopolitical risk and stock weakness. Once these problems are not there, I think there will be a rally vs. JPY. As I said yesterday, I am looking at the action and these are the only setups I am looking for but it can easily be that these moves will not happen the next week. I will then short JPY vs. all others. I also think that the worst part of the retracement is behind us and USD will advance again, or at least ranging still but not losing anymore. Probably you have seen how often I wrote “Nothing special” for the currencies. I know that is boring but that is how it is. As there was a USD retracement, all currencies moved a step back and did not continue their movement to extremes. I will look out for S&P day trading and also my great interest goes on silver and gold, which I will check every day.

    I see that you guys were extremely busy and I am happy to read all those great stops out there. Still it will take some time as I leave for a couple of hours and today are Euro 2016 qualification games. This means…

    FE

  8. #1528
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    971
    Ok I'm done with my report. Well there is something interesting, GBP was the only one that produced a signal (buy signal). The thing is though I'm not sure it is a signal. The 52 MA has to be greater than the value of the previous two weeks. This week however, the value is greater than last week's but equal to the value of two weeks ago.

    When I looked at the currencies, all GBP crosses produced a buy signal with the exception of GBPUSD. that means buys are valid for GBPJPY, GBPAUD, GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPNZD and short EURGBP.

    Personally I'm going to consider this an invalid signal for now. Because I prefer that the MA Value be higher than the previous two weeks. If it is a real signal GBP will rise and next week we can have a valid signal.

    Important to note though there was no sell signal for USD.

  9. #1529
    Join Date
    May 2014
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    971
    Well look who's a star: CFTC COT Positioning: Are Forex Trends Overdone?

    It is the second time that the thread get plugged in on the blogs.

  10. #1530
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
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    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
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    948
    [QUOTE=Mike Wolski;659960]Hey guys.


    Monday///////////Tuesday////////Wednesday/////Thursday///////////Friday//////
    NZD: +7 -0 0//JPY : +7 -0 0//NZD: +7 -0 0//JPY : +7 -0 0//JPY : +7 -0 0
    AUD: +6 -1 0//AUD: +6 -1 0//EUR: +4 -1 2//USD: +6 -1 0//CAD: +5 -1 1
    EUR: +4 -2 1//CHF: +5 -2 0//CHF: +4 -1 2//GBP: +4 -2 1//USD: +5 -1 1
    CAD: +3 -3 1//EUR: +4 -3 0//CAD: +3 -2 2//CHF: +4 -2 1//CHF: +4 -3 0
    CHF: +3 -4 0//GBP: +3 -4 0//GBP: +3 -2 2//EUR: +3 -4 0//GBP: +3 -4 0
    JPY : +2 -5 0//USD: +1 -5 1//AUD: +2 -5 0//NZD: +2 -5 0//NZD: +2 -5 0
    GBP: +1 -6 0//NZD: +0 -5 2//USD: +0 -6 1//CAD: +1 -6 0//EUR: +1 -6 0
    USD: +0 -7 0//CAD: +0 -6 1//JPY : +0 -6 1//AUD: +0 -7 0//AUD: +0 -7 0
    COMMS: +12//////MAJORS: +6/////COMMS: +5/////MAJORS: +15//////MAJORS: +6

    Majors took the week. So for the last 6 weeks in a row it's just been going back and forth consistently.

    I'm coming back right now. Just want to see if I messed something up on this post.
    I have more data coming.

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