COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 171
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  1. #1701
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Thanks for sharing GBPNZD setup and highlighting technical areas where you'd go long and TP Philip.

    I might want to try this out if this turns to my /pounds/ favor
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    Since Carney is concerned about eurozone's "Germany" growth - UKs biggest trading partner these numbers might create some moves hopefully in the favor of pound. Carneys speech alone might not be enough to send pound to one direction.

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    PS: No trading on monday for me. No more.

  2. #1702
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Hi FE,

    1. I meant to say body not volume - Name:  Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 5.35.05 AM.png
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Size:  7.4 KB <--- You see the candle has small body and long tail an indication that sellers tried pushing the price further down but wasn't enough buyers have added long orders overtaking bears /sellers/

    2. Circles on two of VIX weekly chart is MA value , I was comparing the MA value to that of two weeks ago. From what I understood its an indication for a reversal.

    Hope that clears any confusion !

  3. #1703
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,393
    Hi guys,

    rookie,
    ok, thanks, it does make sense how you answered.

    Based on what we have learned lately, I also try to plot a possible trade idea. As we (Philip, rookie and me) did not find many trading opportunities based on COT for currencies, I look at another segment.

    Nikkei 225 had gained during the whole Asian Session. JPY was beat up in all pairs sinse market open (I actually went short on JPY looking at the gaps and all trades are positive). JPY could not close these gaps. All these brings me to the conclusion to look for short-term long S&P 500 trades today.

    Have a nice week and good trading guys!

    FE

  4. #1704
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,393

    Default Copper

    Hi guys,

    as Copper looks like the only interesting Commodity from our COT findings, I found the following article interesting, but it is only for members. If someone (who is obviously registered) could make a print screen and post it here, it would be great.

    Chinese Stimulus Fuels Hope for Copper Prices - WSJ - WSJ

    BTW, does membership cost money there?

    Thanks,
    FE

  5. #1705
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Database Tutorial I.

    Good morning everybody!

    Today, I'm going to show you how I made my database in a few, easy-to-follow steps. You don't have to be an expert in Microsoft Excel, but some basic knowledge is required.

    Template

    My template is probably the most important element of my database. Developing it was a pain in the ass, but well worth the time.

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    I want you to pay attention not to the numbers, but the way the columns are organized. You might experiment with different layouts, but as you soon will see, there is a reason behind my version.

    I encourage you to use the same layout as me, at least until you get comfortable using the Excel.

    Importing Data

    This point, where the element of speed lies. I probably spend about a day to figure out the way to export data from CFTC's website into my database.

    Step 1: Commitments of Traders - CFTC

    Step 2: Click on "Historical Compressed"

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    Step 3: Scroll down until you find either "Futures Only Reports" or "Futures-and-Options Combined Reports"

    I prefer to use the latter.

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    Step 4: Download the Excel format of the years you wish to include in your own database.

    Make sure you finished with these steps before moving forward.

  6. #1706
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    949
    Hey guys.
    0720.
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  7. #1707
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Database Tutorial II.

    This is where things gets a little complicated.

    Extract the files you downloaded from the CFTC's website.

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    It should look like this. This is where the magic comes in. To make sense from all the numbers, you have to know what you are looking for. Let's assume that we are searching for Silver.

    Click on the small Icon that the arrow points at to open a blank sheet.

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    Go back to the "XLS" sheet.

    Press Ctrl+F when you are in the Excel, then type "Silver". Press "Find Next".

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    Voila, we cut through all the c!#p! Hang in there buddy, we are just getting started!

    Now, zoom out until you can see the whole year's data.

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    Ctrl+C it (you won't need all the columns, if you copy it to column "T", you should be fine), then paste it into "Sheet 1".

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    What you are staring at is 1 year of data of Silver.

  8. #1708
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Database Tutorial III.

    It might seem to be a little complicated, but once you get the hang of it, you should be able to obtain 1 year of data in less than 2 minutes.

    Now, open your Template.

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    Copy

    Column A from XLS to Column A in your Template
    Column C from XLS to Column B in Template
    Column H from XLS to Column C in Template
    Column I + J from XLS to Column D and E in Template
    Column K from XLS to Column G in Template
    Column L + M from XLS to column H + I in Template
    Column P + Q from XLS to Column K + L in Template

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    Last edited by BBalazs; 10-20-2014 at 05:51 AM.

  9. #1709
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,393

    Default COT Database Tutorial

    Hi Balazs,

    thanks a lot for your tutorial. It is very valuable, I think I can say it in the name of all of us.

    I did the tutorial just like you said. I even chose Silver so I have everywhere the same data as you. We can move further on.

    As I do not know if you shared your template earlier, I do share mine what I just made. This way we all have the same, it looks like a perfect copy of your work. WOW. Guys, I cannot upload xls file. If someone has an idea and I share the file.

    I have one question until this point:

    For currencies the report does look like then for Commodities. For currencies we have commercial, non-commercial and non-reportable categories (like your sheet says) but for commodities we have 1 more group as there is Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money and Other Reportables. As I see in the excel, there is no difference in commodities and currencies. Still does it not influence the accurate results?

    I am waiting for the further steps,

    FE

  10. #1710
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356
    Quote Originally Posted by ForExchange View Post
    Hi Balazs,

    thanks a lot for your tutorial. It is very valuable, I think I can say it in the name of all of us.

    I did the tutorial just like you said. I even chose Silver so I have everywhere the same data as you. We can move further on.

    As I do not know if you shared your template earlier, I do share mine what I just made. This way we all have the same, it looks like a perfect copy of your work. WOW. Guys, I cannot upload xls file. If someone has an idea and I share the file.

    I have one question until this point:

    For currencies the report does look like then for Commodities. For currencies we have commercial, non-commercial and non-reportable categories (like your sheet says) but for commodities we have 1 more group as there is Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money and Other Reportables. As I see in the excel, there is no difference in commodities and currencies. Still does it not influence the accurate results?

    I am waiting for the further steps,

    FE
    You are probably looking at the Financial Futures. Open up the Futures and Options Combined reports then search for "Yen" for example. You should see the same columns as with Silver for example.

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