COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 157
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  1. #1561
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    Sep 2013
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    949
    Good morning fellas.
    As I check the charts just now, looks like there is some changes going on. JPY has been turning low. FE...I forgot to mention that in my last post. I'm with you on the JPY for low. You in yet?

    Here's the 0710 shot.
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  2. #1562
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    Default Stuy on Silver (OI + Price) I.

    Hey Traders!

    As promised, here comes the study of the relationship between Open Interest and Price.

    There's some interesting stuff going on with Silver! As you guys already know, market bottoms usually comes hand-in-hand with low OI readings. Well, that's what Larry Williams claims. I don't simply take his word for it. Also, ForExchange pointed out earlier, that despite the fact that we are fishing for a bottom in Silver, OI keeps on climbing higher and higher. How is that?

    In order to understand the phenomenon, we have to take a look at the historical chart of Silver spanning over 10 years.

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    Okay, what do we see here?

    Red Circles represents the most obvious lowest OI readings.
    Oranges Circles represents the less obvious low OI readings.
    The single Green Circle represents the only time Silver bottomed out on a high OI reading.

    I don't know about you guys, but I think it is safe to say that low OI readings usually the symptom of a market bottom.

    I wonder though whether the reverse of our statement is accurate or not. So let's examine the relationship of high OI readings and Price.

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    Interesting stuff, isn't it? Seems like when an instrument is really hot, it becomes vulnerable to topping out. I wonder why is that. Tomorrow, I'm going to attach the Positions of the Commercials to find out whether they have to do anything with the phenomenon.

    Anyway, that's all for now. Have a great day!

    Edit: I circled the same circle with green & red. That reading is kind subjective though, since the highest reading came right after the top. Well, interpret anyway you like. Also, I noticed that in the second picture, the second red line also represents a bottom in high OI reading.
    Last edited by BBalazs; 10-14-2014 at 02:45 AM.

  3. #1563
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    Sep 2013
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    Hey guys.
    I got to run now. But thought I'd leave you with one more shot. 0940
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  4. #1564
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    Sep 2013
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    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
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    Hey guys.
    Well we've been rolling for a Monday. Right now it's approaching the US session, about an hour away.
    I just wanted to let you know that I got into a trade this morning. I'm gonna let this ride out.
    AUD/JPY going long at 93.72. Looking good so far.

    So far up to this point it sure does look like the Comms are coming back. NZD and AUD. Except CAD. They are being taken advantage of. And on the other side it looks like the JPY is dropping much also, along with some other Majors also.

    I'm thinking the Comms just might take this week. I really don't know of course, but the way the trend has been going, which is just back and forth, it should be the Comms turn this week. And I'm hoping it will be the AUD leading the way.
    So, once again, I really don't know but for a Monday I'm making that call. We'll see if my sentiment will be matched with what the market thinks. Someone remind me at the end of the week to look back at this post.

    Ok guys. Be careful, be smart, and let's just go with the flow.

    Mike

  5. #1565
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,393
    Hi Team,

    we have an interesting day out there even if half of the world has banking holiday. On one side we can say risk on sentiment is out there today and the three comdolls are gaining on it. What is strange though, the one currency which should lose big time (JPY) in these market conditions; is holding pretty good to its’ levels. I wait for your observations guys because I am not getting exactly how both these moves are possible at the very same time. (I know Mike said JPY is dropping, but I think comparing in what speed and how much JPY earned lately, the loss is only a minor loss).

    Mike,

    I was missing your screen shots in the morning. I see you posted them later. Good luck with your trade, I am also in with AUD but not vs. JPY. I am in vs. EUR and CHF. But I have to admit you made me think to jump in. Looks like a good long term setup.

    Balazs,

    good explanation and charts on OI and Price. Really nice work there. If I examine the price levels with the OI readings, and then look at the successful trade ratio (assuming I was always entering the trades on the signal), well it would not have made a great result. It was still possible though to make the signals you mentioned to a good revenue source. Some of the biggest market moves were right on spot. This means, entering all the trades you posted with a very tight stop loss would have worked I think. We would have been stopped out very often, however some great moves would have been caught and these trades make up easily for the many small losses. What is interesting, silver is more on a high level, which would suggest a selling signal now. At these levels I just definitely do not have the guts to sell. It does not mean it is not the right thing to do, but for sure not for me (I know you did not say to trade it).

    FE

  6. #1566
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
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    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
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    949
    Hey guys.
    I don't know if your aware, but the NZD had prices come out Monday. Wasn't good. But...have you seen them today? Are up. Along with their sister AUD. Comms definitely have it today.
    But anyway, take a look.
    New Zealand Food Prices Drop 0.8% In September
    Interesting.
    Who needs good news? Bad news will do just fine for them, apparently.

  7. #1567
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    Sep 2013
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    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
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    Hey fellas.
    I got another one. Interesting article on the Russia/China currency swap deal. I don't know what it means to us, but maybe have an effect on the USD sometime.
    Maybe someone real smart out there (BabyPips old guys) have something to say about that. \
    Well, take a look.
    http://rt.com/business/195556-russia...currency-swap/


    Mike

  8. #1568
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    Hungary
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForExchange View Post

    Balazs,

    good explanation and charts on OI and Price. Really nice work there. If I examine the price levels with the OI readings, and then look at the successful trade ratio (assuming I was always entering the trades on the signal), well it would not have made a great result. It was still possible though to make the signals you mentioned to a good revenue source. Some of the biggest market moves were right on spot. This means, entering all the trades you posted with a very tight stop loss would have worked I think. We would have been stopped out very often, however some great moves would have been caught and these trades make up easily for the many small losses. What is interesting, silver is more on a high level, which would suggest a selling signal now. At these levels I just definitely do not have the guts to sell. It does not mean it is not the right thing to do, but for sure not for me (I know you did not say to trade it).

    FE
    Keep in mind that the chart is a Weekly chart. If we would zoom in, we might spot some great setups at the highlighted points, probably with a nice R:R ratio.

  9. #1569
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    2,487
    Huge spike on EUR/USD and some other EUR crosses, fear re Ebola in Boston, USA.

    My test system had me exit my short on Eur/Usd with 32 pips, it took me long and then I exited with 2 pips profit just before the huge spike. (wrote in my journal - not much movement likely, has ran out of steam)

    Still happy with the exit decision regardless, but just shows how wrong it is possible to be.

    The system has indicated a short on Nikkei so took that is evening, also long on Eur/Jpy on a buy stop (probably triggered by the surge, pending orders long on Aud/Jpy and short Usd/Jpy,.

    Will update later.

    BTW strong correlation on Silver with many currencies at present.

    Update; apparently a false alarm at Boston, thank goodness, now the interesting thing is will the move fade?
    Last edited by peterma; 10-13-2014 at 05:43 PM. Reason: Update

  10. #1570
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    Hey guys.
    Monday results.

    AUD: +6 -0 1///+4 -0 1
    CHF: +5 -0 2///+2 -0 1
    EUR: +5 -1 1///+2 -1 0
    NZD: +4 -3 0///+3 -2 0
    JPY : +3 -4 0///+1 -2 0
    USD: +1 -5 1///+0 -2 1
    CAD: +0 -5 2///+0 -3 2
    GBP: +0 -6 1///+0 -2 1

    Comms took it today, not by much though. +2

    The 00 shot, beginning of Tuesday.
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    We'll chat in the am guys.

    Mike

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