COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 89
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  1. #881
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    981
    Hey fellas!

    Well I have good news to report. See this morning I did set up my GBP trades that I determined this past weekend. Told you all about them. I have about 4 on hold. So I did put in the buy stop orders. And, well, one of them did take. GBP/JPY buy at 172.70. And I peek in on what's going, on my tablet. (I can't trade on that, just monitor the market). So I see that one just took off today. Yay!! So, I'm up to 30 pips and leveling off there now. I'm really excited to finally see something that was planned kick in and produce for me. I can't do anything about it now until I get home, in about 2 hrs from now. So, then I will determine if I want to run all the way to where my TP is at, or just take profit. It's predetermined level is up to the next major resistance level.

    I'll keep you informed.

    Oh, that reminds me. I do have a GBP/NZD in place.( Going up). And that might do something crazy. In a little over 1 hr from now that's gonna fly somewhere. (NZD news)
    Man...I better fly home.

    Mike

  2. #882
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394

    Default COT index indicator instructions

    Hi Philip and rookie (Mike and flows would be also good),

    I have been looking for quite a long time today for a COT Indicator. I have found one, but you all have to test it as I tried to find the best combination and settings but I am sure some of them are not the right yet. It was really time demanding to find all the right settings. I still think it is a huge edge and we should do it!

    Please follow the instructions, check how it looks and write your ideas and suggestions:

    1. Go to the Commodity Futures & FOREX Charts | Commitments of Traders Database website
    2. Click on the top to COT
    3. Choose on the left hand side COT Index and give the value 26 for weeks
    4. Click on the left hand site on Large and Specs, then they disappear. We only want to see Comms on the index.
    5. Click on the top on "W" to have a weekly chart.
    6. Click on the top on "indicator" and choose 1 line MA (I also clicked on "candle" but it is your choice to use candlesticks or bar chart)
    7. Very important to select on the bottom 3y time period as the original setting is only 6m which is not much of a use.
    (8. For any other currencies or markets you have to click on "Symbol" and choose the one you want to have.)

    If you follow these 7 steps you are there where I think we can start looking for signals. (As far as I see we are just about to getting a sell AUD signal.)

    Problems to solve:
    1. I do not know how we can change the 21 MA to 52 MA. Is it even possible?
    2. Also I do not understand clearly the 3 COT categories: Large, Comm and Specs. We use Comm and Large for the same use. So here you might suggest something, I used for now the Comms.

    Advantage: we can find all markets, not only currencies. We can click it through for great setups.

    Disadvantage: I actually wanted an indicator for my charts. That way it would be enough to set it up and click it through. This is a website and makes it more complicated, it is also never saved.

    How to use it?
    We use it for bullish market as a buy signal when the index goes above 80 and use it for a bearish market as a sell signal when the index is under 20. (For the trend we use the MA. The moving average should be though 52 weeks and not 21)

    As I said, it is not perfect but in some hours this was the best I could manage. Still a lot better than nothing, especially if it gives some great signals.

  3. #883
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    971
    Great, the only problem for me is that it doesn't allow me to see other currencies. Plus I remember us looking a while back at this site and concluding that its stats were not accurate. I will test the strategy though.

    We will also have the same problem of too many signals. I was wondering if Williams posted the time frame over which he took his trades with that symbol. I remember him taking 17 trades with the pound, but over how long?
    Last edited by PhilipPirrip; 09-10-2014 at 06:34 PM.

  4. #884
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Morning Philip!

    I'm down with EURAUD already, might have been a little early but I'm anticipating a positive data for AUD, correction from last time - employment data that came out quite bad - but it turned out it was only the headline and every else was good I read. Its 200+ pips all the way down to previous lows we'll see how that goes....

    Good job Mike! well I hope you did get on GBPNZD , I was planning to wake up then but was late - I saw some NZD pairs headed down - NZD heading down , rate stays the same and inflation not up to forecast.

    I see lots of opportunities guys its hard to resist. But I'm constantly reminding myself to stick with the plan.

    I've got long orders for AUDJPY hoping for some good news for AUD - AUD started correcting back up since NY session yesterday we'll see Mikes stats on that hopefully by today. And I've got 3 EURUSD positions going - hopefully Draghi won't bring another surprise!
    Last edited by rookie39; 09-10-2014 at 07:06 PM.

  5. #885
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    981
    Hi guys!
    Here comes Wednesday.

    GBP: +7 -0 0
    CAD: +6 -1 0
    USD: +5 -2 0
    EUR: +4 -3 0
    CHF: +2 -4 1
    AUD: +2 -4 1
    NZD: +0 -6 1
    JPY : +0 -6 1

    Majors took this one also. +3

    So the week goes like this:
    Monday: M +8
    Tuesday: M +12
    Wednesday: M +3

    We kind of knew that this week was going to the Majors. After a 4 in a row for Comms.

    Majors vs. Comms

    GBP: +3 -0 0
    CAD: +4 -1 0
    USD: +2 -1 0
    EUR: +2 -1 0
    CHF: +1 -1 1
    AUD: +1 -3 1
    NZD: +0 -4 1
    JPY : +0 -2 1

    Notes:
    CAD was the only strong Comm. And pretty strong. Only down against GBP, and up against all else.
    USD strong. Only down against GBP and CAD.


    So, fellas. I have some good news.
    I killed it! I did good today. Like I mentioned earlier, I made it with GBP/JPY. So when I got home today I checked..."holy moly, look at my account!!" Not only was I up with that one, but my GBP/NZD got triggered also. So I quickly ran the numbers and took profit on those 2. Up 44.3 pips on the Yen, and 50.8 on the NZD.
    Therefore I have made my quota for the month. Yes, I have made 223 pips so far this month. That's my goal. And you know what that means. I am done for the month. I'm up 21.6% for the month. And I want to keep that. I know it just sounds silly, "I'm a trader and I'm not going to trade?"...Right. I keep thinking about this.
    I want this so bad, that I'm not going to blow it. Sure, I'll still run the numbers. Keep up on what's going on. Even think of good set ups to watch for...etc...etc...Play around on my demo account as I do.
    I got what I want and need for the month. Now I will concentrate on a good plan for next month.
    I will get back to reading my macroeconomics book. Even try to figure out your COT index issue.

    I'm very happy guys.

    Mike

  6. #886
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    I'm happy for you Mike!

    You've done your job for the month Mike and its only second week of Sep, 21.6% is good enough wait not even that yes you killed it . I think its better to just sit aside until next month. But you need to keep yourself updated - a lot things happen especially now that the volatility is back. Sticking with your plan sure does work isn't it.

  7. #887
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Hey guys....

    I have a lot of catching up to do FE on your regular posts from books and COT index. Give me a day i will be on it!

    So AUD data came out just as expected better reading than previous and I closed one of my EURAUD at +50 pips it jumped all the way to +80pips in a matter of seconds after the release I feel bad that I didn't TP then so is my AUDJPY still going much of the gain is gone probably due to some profit taking. I'm thinking guys... besides having what we do COT report - bias - pairing strong v weak - and plus - news. I mean some of you might already do this but I don't or I wasn't aware of this. I try to steer clear from trading the news only however seeing how my EURAUD went up +80pips in a matter of seconds from some minor loss made me think we've got our bias and strong v weak pair and news releases doing some reading and searching we can sort of gauge how that will come out - we do have our expectations /intuition works here as well/ I feel this way we can fully take advantage - or maybe an edge ? So I've been thinking about this and I will incorporate that into my trading from next week onwards and will work on it. Now this approach is purely from specs following non comms type of trading I assume - I'm just trying to refine and tweak things a little here and there. I see Mikes already doing it incorporating the news and had killed it . I hope you guys understand what I'm trying to say.

    I used to avoid news altogether and that was for a good reason but now that we follow specs move and pair strong v weak with little bit of reading prior the news release to get an idea how that will turn out to be and in anticipation of that I place my orders just like what I did with EURAUD trade. I might have done this in the past but I wasn't aware guys. So this trade was the first trade that I was aware and I had expectation for AUD employment data sounds risky but we've got our bias and strong v weak pairs to back it up I just thought its worth giving it a shot. Well now I feel bad I didn't take that 80pips came in just few seconds - I should probably let it go I'll do better on next trade that will be carried out in a similar fashion.

    See you around guys! I hope you're all doing good!

  8. #888
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    971
    First Rookie congrats on calling the AUD data, well done. Secondly, don't be too hard on yourself because no one has gone broke making 50 or 20 pips instead of 80. I'm in the trade myself, its actually one of the trades I want to play the entire month so I'll see when I get out. I'm in a long GBP/JPY position as well.

    Mike well done on achieving a great return. One thing you will find hard is not trading set ups that occur this month that you think are winners. I just wanted to write to remind you not to take them, because the following month you will have similar set ups and you will need them more to fulfill your target.

    FE, I have been playing with the chart you provided for some hours now because I got excited. I have been trying to come up with some entry techniques that can work with such a long term set up. I have some ideas but not conclusive. I know that Larry Williams has a course that discusses more than 5 possible entry techniques but I do not feel its worth paying $250 just for that. You might know someone who bought the course and might help you with what the techniques were.

    The other thing I was thinking about as to why we could have so many signals: 1) the reason you mentioned which is that may be the index is used on the 7 pairs and not necessarily the crosses. If we bear in mind that the dollar has been so strong, it is normal that we find almost every currency at an extreme. Because all the 7 pairs are at extreme highs and lows for the past 6 months. Even AUD when you think about it has been doing really well against USD and managed to get to the 0.94 before selling off. If we see a change in AUD's index next week, then may be this theory has its merit. Gold however is nowhere near a bottom despite its capitulation, which could also indicate that the rare signals could be a feature of commodities rather than FX.

    It is also important to note that Williams said in his book that he wouldn't just take a trade based on "this", referring to the system. But that it rather helped him highlight possible set ups.
    Last edited by PhilipPirrip; 09-11-2014 at 01:24 AM.

  9. #889
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Thanks Philip! I've actually got two more positions still running on EURAUD I'll keep them for a while. I just had to close the one that I opened prior the data to make myself feel better. I know sounds silly. But it works for me.

    GBPJPY long sounds good , now that the Scotland independence vote is out of the way - pound is getting stronger. I haven't been in any pound trades lately but I will when I see a good opportunity.

    FE... about the website I know we did discuss about the website earlier and concluded it wasn't reliable - you're right Philip. But I saw someone using the website at another forum. I'll take a look once again and will let you know what I think.

    We've got Feds monetary policy statement coming next week on 18th Sep. I did some reading on that and we can expect changing of some words - to raise interest rates sooner than later could send dollar up against major currencies again. Specs are after this. So I might look for a good set up to ride dollar up.

  10. #890
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Indonesia
    Posts
    108
    Hi FE,

    I've been using that site for a while. Erh, I thought you guys are already familiar with it since the site is mentioned somewhere in the babypips school. To change the MA value, simply select the gear icon for settings. Large is for the non-commercials, Commercial is for the commercials, Speculators is for the non-reportable positions in COT reports.

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