COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 91
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  1. #901
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Ok guys,

    I picked two charts, without a reason I picked JPY and AUD.

    Once more the rules:
    - we trade only if the COT index signal and MA shows the same direction
    - above the value 80 is a buy signal, under the value of 20 is a sell signal
    - if the value stays continuously above 80 or below 20 it is not a continuous signal. It has to go under 80 and above 20 and re-enter to zone to give another valid signal.

    Based on that, I made two charts where I show you with a read line all the valid signal on the timingchart.com chart.

    Philip was right, there are quite many signals. On the AUD chart I did not see that but on JPY there are more. On the other side, 10 signals in 3 years is not that extreme. Checking the quality of the signals for JPY, all of them would have resulted with a profit. The first 6 were great, the last 4 not so. We have to say though that it is not made for range trading, which is the case in the last 4 occurences.

    Looking at the AUD charts, it was ranging and choppy, no valid signals. In 3 years it gave one singal, in the very end I made a signal but it is not a signal yet. If next week we get a negative number then we might see the 2nd valid signal in three years. The 1st signal, we have to say was a total hit! I really think this tool could greatly improve our results.

    Opinions? We might make this for several markets, Commodities to see the difference.

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  2. #902
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    971
    Ok I figured out the problem, I was looking at FX charts when I should have been looking at futures, I'll report back to you on what signals we could have taken this week.

    EDIT After running the chart I see that there is a sell signal in Canada triggered last week. There was also a buy signal in Pound (let's see how pound cad do). Another buy signal in New Zealand (Not going well).

    I don't know if these are a lot of signals or not. But trading GBPCAD and NZDCAD based on this signal alone would have made you 312 pips on the first and -30 on the second (that is so far for both). That is not bad.

    BTW Adam Button, although acknowledged its poor fundamental, said that New Zealand Dollar is the standout performer for September being its second best month in the last 10 years. So if you guys have the signal let's keep an eye on it.
    Last edited by PhilipPirrip; 09-11-2014 at 07:47 AM.

  3. #903
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    As we talk a lot about the Aussie, here is the article from Forex Gump:

    Economic Data Roundup: Australia

    The first part shows me we can make some short-term long trades, but as I am really concerned about Chinese economy, on the long-term I am more bearish.

  4. #904
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    971
    Quote Originally Posted by ForExchange View Post
    Ok guys,

    I picked two charts, without a reason I picked JPY and AUD.

    Once more the rules:
    - we trade only if the COT index signal and MA shows the same direction
    - above the value 80 is a buy signal, under the value of 20 is a sell signal
    - if the value stays continuously above 80 or below 20 it is not a continuous signal. It has to go under 80 and above 20 and re-enter to zone to give another valid signal.

    Based on that, I made two charts where I show you with a read line all the valid signal on the timingchart.com chart.

    Philip was right, there are quite many signals. On the AUD chart I did not see that but on JPY there are more. On the other side, 10 signals in 3 years is not that extreme. Checking the quality of the signals for JPY, all of them would have resulted with a profit. The first 6 were great, the last 4 not so. We have to say though that it is not made for range trading, which is the case in the last 4 occurences.

    Looking at the AUD charts, it was ranging and choppy, no valid signals. In 3 years it gave one singal, in the very end I made a signal but it is not a signal yet. If next week we get a negative number then we might see the 2nd valid signal in three years. The 1st signal, we have to say was a total hit! I really think this tool could greatly improve our results.

    Opinions? We might make this for several markets, Commodities to see the difference.

    Name:  JPYcotindex.jpg
Views: 212
Size:  31.9 KBName:  AUDcotindex.jpg
Views: 212
Size:  28.1 KB
    Definitely like it. Let's see the AUD signal confirmed next week. But we had so many arguments in the past, now look who is looking to sell the Dollar and buy Euro :P
    Last edited by PhilipPirrip; 09-11-2014 at 08:09 AM.

  5. #905
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Thanks for the article FE! that pretty much explains why AUD has been a disappointment lately. Bias has changed.

    I still have two open positions on EURAUD FE, I think I may have to close those soon.

    If you guys read latest headlines just 2 hours ago EU went ahead with second round of sanctions against Russia I'm hoping that would push euro a bit further down so I can cut my losses a bit on EURAUD trades. We'll see.

    NZD rate decision and monetary policy statement came out at 4 am in where I live Bangkok. Usually I'm up by then but that morning I couldn't.

    So now the ISIS, I wonder how that will affect the USD what do you think FE ?

  6. #906
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Hi Philip and rookie,

    just fast:

    Philip, I am not buying the EUR that is for sure. You might have read it yesterday in a post but rookie told me so I corrected the mistake right away. If I do not want to buy 1 currency, it is the EUR. Until the point of course when we find the extreme.

    Thanks for the info on NZD.

    rookie, I think ISIS can mostly affect CHF and JPY. Of course US too but as USD is running good anyway it is hard to say how much can we say it is because of geo risk. Buy JPY and CHF it is harder because their economies do not perform so good so there are countertrend movements in the short-term.

    I would say we keep tracking this cot index indicator and try to get better in it. It looks quite good.

    See you guys

  7. #907
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    I like what you did with AUD and JPY there FE....

    I agree with the entry criterias as well it makes perfect sense to buy when its above 80 and MA 52 weeks as I see euro at 100 currently and it has been since May this year but if we plot 52 wks MA I've got it on daily chart we can clearly see while euro was at 100 the price was falling just below MA.

    I set mine to daily I don't see that many entry signals. I do see a sell signal for AUD currently at 0 and price below MA and buy signal for pound however price is still below MA but I already see a bullish candle. We'll put this to test guys.... I'm excited!
    Last edited by rookie39; 09-11-2014 at 08:59 AM.

  8. #908
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    bangkok
    Posts
    826
    Quote Originally Posted by PhilipPirrip View Post
    Ok I figured out the problem, I was looking at FX charts when I should have been looking at futures, I'll report back to you on what signals we could have taken this week.

    EDIT After running the chart I see that there is a sell signal in Canada triggered last week. There was also a buy signal in Pound (let's see how pound cad do). Another buy signal in New Zealand (Not going well).

    I don't know if these are a lot of signals or not. But trading GBPCAD and NZDCAD based on this signal alone would have made you 312 pips on the first and -30 on the second (that is so far for both). That is not bad.

    BTW Adam Button, although acknowledged its poor fundamental, said that New Zealand Dollar is the standout performer for September being its second best month in the last 10 years. So if you guys have the signal let's keep an eye on it.
    On daily or weekly chart ? Ive set mine to daily and I do see sell signal for CAD price below 52wks MA index at 16.96. I don't see NZD however, wait.. are you on with different charting ?

  9. #909
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394

    Default invitation for flows

    Hi flows,

    great news for you!

    Here is your profile:

    - you are a technical trader
    - only sentimental analysis you follow is the COT report
    - you have long experience with timingcharts.com
    - you just appear in the right time when we started to discuss our new "powertool"

    Does it make sense? Is there a better occasion to say being at the right place at the right time? I do not think so!

    So, how about this: you read once more the articles here about our new COT index indicator system, you help to develop it and click through the used settings on timingcharts.com on every weekend. You would post here with words or pictures your finding and we would discuss it. I tell you, you would learn a hell of a lot from it. It is some work but not as much as the others have. I guess it would be 15-20 minutes to do the charting and the same amount of time to present your findings here! You would be involved here in the forum with a technical analysis on COT which is anyway your portfolio! For that, you will hear our opinion on your findings and you either confirm our findings or go against it, but we might find even better setups!

    There is one important thing to mention about the job: it would be nice if you do not only click through the 7 forex currencies but all products that we can buy/sell at an average broker. As I said once, I do not care if I sell wheat, oil our pound. If we learn the analysis anyway then it is a waste of opportunity to make the analysis only for a fraction of the cake. With more products we increase our successful signals and efficiency.

    What do you think? You do not get such an offer every day!

    Waiting for your answer,
    FE

    PS: I expect here some background push from the other guys :-)

  10. #910
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    971
    Quote Originally Posted by rookie39 View Post
    On daily or weekly chart ? Ive set mine to daily and I do see sell signal for CAD price below 52wks MA index at 16.96. I don't see NZD however, wait.. are you on with different charting ?
    It does not matter where price is related to the MA for this system. What matters is the value of the MA compared to the previous week. So once you see the value of a currency's index reach 20 or lower, that means a top is near and we will look for sell opportunities. A sell signal is triggered when the value of the MA for the latest week is lower than the week before.

    A buy signal is triggered when we enter 80-100 extreme territory, and the MA value gets higher than the week before. Hope that clears it up.

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