I got Stop by USDCHF...actually i am quite confident with my setup.
1. it is downtrend
2. the price rejected several times from the resistance
3. the PB formed
Did i do anything wrong?
Hope someone can give me some inputs.
Bummer about the loss.
The only thing i can point out on was trade selection, i.e, the pin was a pass because it does not stick out. It is formed within candles rather than standing out from them. And for that same reason, it is not at swing high.
I lost the trade posted and i want to learn.In my analysis this was an A+ trade that just dint work out.Price was in a range and picked(bought) the bottom of the range with a huge daily pin bar.I know that some A+ trade may not work out.Was this an A+ trade that dint work out.
Should have I considered the long term trend (looking from left to right market was trending down) before the pair starting ranging?
What i want to establish is if am picking A+ trades as much as it dint go my way.
Fellow PA traders ,share with me your thoughts.
My thoughts below.
a) AUDCHF D1 chart:
b) The way I was reading the price story:
# For me, price was not in a range before the pinbar, but rather in a new down-swing.
# Price fought to break through the S/R at A and succeeded, without coming back to test the S/R -> indication of down momentum
# When it got to the S/R at B, it again struggled to break it, forming a pinbar in the process.
c) Pinbar analysis
# The pin was a valid pinbar ( area + formation )
1. I'd have liked it to close above the zone (showing bullish momentum)
2. Given that I thought price was in a down-swing, this pin was counter-swing/trend for me
3. Further to no. 2, there was a level around 0.9510 that was right above ENTRY and where price could turn.
=> 1. & 2. & 3. = pass, and that was why I did not take it.
For what it's worth, I also did not take the EURUSD H4 BUEB ( for the same reasons highlighted by Mr J. Sensei )
It's painful to let trades go when you've been stalking an area for some time.
But Johnathon said picky is best ( not easy, but it works ).
Hi) I want some help from senior members regarding VBRN,s(very big round numbers).So far theoratically i understood S&R levels,price action signals,FSA,FRA etc well enough.I am making misktakes though because i have no practical expereince of analyzing A+ setups.But i have no sound knowledge of using big round no,s in the analysis of A+ setups.So i would like to ask some questions.In case the presence of a big round no at the resistance area does the bearish PA signal candle suppose to close below the big round no so that,s mean the price is rejecting the big round no? And what does the big round no suppose to mean at the support area?In case if the vbrn is not like 0.9100 and it,s like 0.9106 so we need to round it off? Finally does the importance of the big round no stands equally with the PA ingredients while baking the A+ cake?
Apologies for delay in reply to your query.
The one thing we're concerned about when entering a trade is high probability of success. This high probability is brought together by the coming together (confluence) of key factors.
S/R levels are simply areas where traders (humans) place importance and plan their trading around (buy;sell/enter;exit)
VBRNs (and their subsets BRNs and RNs) are some of those areas.
In case the presence of a big round no at the resistance area does the bearish PA signal candle suppose to close below the big round no so that,s mean the price is rejecting the big round no?
Mr J emphasizes on reading the whole price action story. When price is at a resistance (than happens to be a VBRN) and a bearish PA signal is formed, it needs to close BELOW the VBRN to show to us that the bears are in control. If it fails to close below the VBRN, it shows that there is a struggle going on (and those are some of the cases that we "pass" on setups).
And what does the big round no suppose to mean at the support area?
It means confluence. The area is a support because traders behave the same way around that VBRN (i.e buy/exit sells).
In case if the vbrn is not like 0.9100 and it,s like 0.9106 so we need to round it off?
Since S/R is a zone, price will not always touch the round number before doing something. Sometimes the stack of orders near the VBRN is so large, that price will turn around before hitting the number.
So, for example, a VBRN of 1.0000 may be bounded by candle wicks hitting 0.9995, 0.9997, 0.9991, etc
On our charts, we simply draw a line at 1.0000 to keep things simple. Drawing a line at say 0.9995 is also NOT WRONG (it's the same zone). The important thing is your mind has taken note of what's going on at that level.
Finally does the importance of the big round no stands equally with the PA ingredients while baking the A+ cake?
Round numbers are implicitly contained in ingredient #1 -> key horizontal zone.
Being aware of round numbers (especially BRNs and VBRNs) helps us to choose and manage trades, so that we don't trade into them.
EG 1: entering a bullish pin that has formed UNDER a VBRN may NOT be a good idea
EG 2: if you're in a trade (say, sell at 1.0050), it may be a good idea to plan to do something around 1.0000 VBRN
a) USDCAD: VBRN of 1.0000 (see how price behaves around that)
b) GBPUSD: BRN of 1.6000 (see how price behaves around that)
c) AUDNZD: RN of 1.2400 (see how price behaves around that)
I hope that helps. Incase of any confusion, kindly feedback and it'll be sorted out.
Just wanted to quickly recap the AUDNZD BEEB that a lot of people cleaned up on this week. I personally missed it due to being away from computer with something else, hoever this was a solid setups. Formed within the strong trend, at a pullback to a value area that was also resistance. This was up at a high and sticking out. This ticked all the boxes of the things I go on and on about. It was bascially just very obvious. I got quite a few emails about this one with people cleaning up and basically a lot of people had real "Ah ha" moments with this trade. it helped seeing what we talk about a lot being all in the one setups.