Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

Hi Everyone, I have been running a popular thread in the Trade Journals forum ( same title) , and this might be a more suitable place for it. I do my own unique version of a strong weak analysis where I identify the strongest down to the weakest of the 8 major currencies, the idea being to match the strongest with the weakest and trade that pair. Combining this with good technical analysis and trading in the direction of the trend has lead me to consistent profits over the last 3 years. This is not day trading and in a good trend I can be in a trade for weeks even months. I post updates to my Strong/weak rankings every evening using the daily close numbers. I have also been posting a weekly market review video on YouTube that you might find helpful. I look at trading as a team sport and having many followers with their inputs and trade ideas benefits all of us, so your comments, questions and trade ideas are always welcome here. I will explain in more detail as this thread progresses, for now this is my current strong weak ranking based on yesterday’s close. Aussie is strong and US dollar weak so being Long AUDUSD is the play,

Link to my other thread

My current strong weak ranking as of yesterday’s close

Weekly look at my top SW trade, AUDUSD has been in a long term down trend but we do see a nice double bottom and we are starting to clear some overhead resistance. This is still a counter trend move and could still head lower, but if this is a bottom and beginning of a new trend it is one we want to be trading

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This weeks closing SW rankings

Here is my weekly market review video , some good stuff here

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I do the same way of trading. How do you determine what are the strongest and weakest pairs?

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I use the yen as my common denominator, % you see is distance price is above or below 200 ma on 4hr chart. Yen will always be 0.00%

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My Strong/Weak rankings for Monday, not much change from Friday

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Been trying to pick the AUDUSD low but keep getting stopped out! Luckily my stops are at commission cost.

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Trading with tight stops is like death by a 1,000 cuts. When I enter a new trade I will put a red line on the chart, that is where I will manually exit if prices closes below on the daily chart. A stop loss order should be renamed guaranty loss. I normally only place stop orders above breakeven or to lock in profits

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If you just must trade the EURUSD, then this is a pretty good place to go long, this pair has a pattern of pulling back 3 days before a big up candle. A daily close below 1.1200 would be reason to exit without to much damage

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How did you get stopped out, we have been about the 1hr 200ma for 5 days

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Best place to enter a new trade is on a pull back to the 200 moving average on the 1hr chart. Here we see AUDNZD pull back to the 200 ma then followed the uptrend before moving higher today.

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Good day for Aussie, bad day for Yen and Pound

GBPAUD is now my top Strong Weak trade, look at that down trend, 3700 pips down from August high. Had you gone short on March 8th the first day it was a top trade you would be up 450 pips at today’s close

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I don’t sent my commission cost stops at order. It’s usually done when the intended trend fails by a lot or when I expect the trend never to reverse again for the rest of the trade. My days went something like this:


looking at the AUDUSD we have a clear trend change, Double bottom, price above 200ma, 34ma crossing above the 200ma, now last area of strong resistance is 0.7600 if we clear that then look for 0.8100

The only thing that can stop this uptrend is central bank action, you see a big reversal candle after central bank action then you know the party is over

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Is this the week we verify our inverse Head and Shoulder in AUDNZD. We are sitting just below 1.1300, I need to see a weekly close above that level. If we get it, this could be a big one

If you are like me you are enjoying this ride down in USDCAD. If that ride is to continue we need oil prices to keep climbing. looking at the weekly chart of crude oil index, we are at a critical point with price hitting the 40 week moving average, the last two times we rallied up to this moving average, price fell to new lows, will it happen again?

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Strong weak rankings for Wednesday, some pretty good pull backs today

Strong weak rankings for Thursday, good day for GBP, weakness in the Yen

I am watching AUDUSD, after a week of pull backs we had a little pin bar today, this could signal pullback is over

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Year to date the strongest moves have been to the down side.

here is top 5 losing pairs

Here are the top 5 to the up side

extreme movers bring lots of trading opportunities , we will need to watch these either as they continue current trend or a trend reversal

Strong weak rankings

My weekly market review video

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Looks like our trends might be back on track with AUD and CAD having a good day, The Yen fell to #8 today and now every currency this year has spent time ranked 8th, it just shows the back and forth action we have had this year